Burnwinter wrote:
Maybe what all the nonsense and poor understanding, and contractual and diplomatic hurdles around Brexit demonstrate is that national borders are no longer all-determining in this era.
When it was all part of the EU that was a little true for some people. They felt European, they could travel back and forth over the border with no issue and they had the convenience of 2 passports. You could be a republican, with an Irish passport, consider yourself entirely Irish and yet still use the NHS.
Burnwinter wrote:Obviously I don't know too much about Irish politics, but I think given time the significance of the division between north and south might fade away, and make the "unification" of Ireland very possible, but as something other than the establishment of a single fixed Irish citizenship, military, border, etc.
Seems like this was already slowly happening, people were comfortable with it, and it's the possibility of a temporary regression, the "hard border", that's making them anxious?
The hard border is definitely making people anxious but thats just part of it. A hard border completely contravenes the GFA so people worry what else they will lose. This is all added to losing the EU and freedom of movement, etc Its a massive change in peoples rights over the last 20 years. There is a big middle ground in NI that doesn't get much coverage. I've friends who are nominally Unionist because of where they are from, their families, etc but they would vote for reunification if Brexit goes through because they want to be in Europe. I've republican friends who 15 years ago didn't want a border poll because they didn't want to lose the NHS (this sentiment has dwindled due to the austerity cuts). There are people who live close to the border who's livelihood is threatened by a hard border. Most of these people aren't voting on hard Republican vs Unionist grounds, they just want what they thinks best for them and their families.
If there is a border poll called it will of course be met with resistance from Unionist groups in the North, probably some of it violent but I don't think it'd be anything like the troubles. In the Republic there will be little resistance beyond a few people complaining about how much it'll cost the state, how it'll raise their tax, etc There will be a massive shift in Irish domestic politics if it happens though and certain parties will grow while other will be relegated to far less significance. Fianna Fail, traditionally Irelands biggest party though currently 2nd due to their handling of the last recession, have recently started to make moves in NI politics by aligning with the SDLP, this to me is a clear indication they are preparing for a potential border poll in the coming years and the possibility of reunification. This wouldn't be happening if not for Brexit. There was no immediate push for a border poll from anyone 3 years ago, now there are articles in the papers here about it every week.
