UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 51 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

Burnwinter

Reckon the parameters of a deal in this unstable environment will probably be determined by rivalrous blocs of capital well-connected with the City and in Whitehall.

For instance there are big interests that'd want the UK to join a trans-Atlantic FTA and there are interests that wouldn't. That's where the battles will be thought while ordinary people (who already experience a pretty low quality of life in my opinion) are further screwed.

Qwiss

goon wrote:
May's deal rejected by a majority o 230 votes. Glad we wasted a month to narrow that down.

Corbyn has tabled a motion of no confidence, which will obviously fail.

Lord know what happens now.

Its a nonsense that the no confidence will fail. If you can't pass something this important then the PM should go.

goon

It has been hilarious watching some Tory MP's going on and on about how the government has screwed up, and then with the next breath go on and say they'll definitely back the government in the no confidence vote.

I think the ERG messed up by pushing their own no confidence vote too early. If they did it now I reckon there would have been a much higher chance of them succeeding.

goon

Burnwinter wrote:
battles will be thought

I feel like this needs to be framed and put in a museum somewhere.

Mirth

Qwiss! wrote:
Its a nonsense that the no confidence will fail. If you can't pass something this important then the PM should go.

At this point it's symbolic, no one wants to be PM (if they ever did) since it's a poison chalice but based on May's speech she'll have to reach across the divide and build some cross party consensus. Why she never did that in 2016 or in 2017 when she lost her majority I'll never understand but it's telling that the markets barely flinched last night with GBP actually gaining.

Plenty of talk that there will be an extension (with certain conditions attached) to the deadline now.

goon

You reckon that will achieve anything? Reaching across the divide?

Labour's red lines and her red lines seem pretty incompatible when it comes to the customs union and single market and neither side, so far at least, have given any indication that we're willing to budge on those. The number of Labour MPs who may ignore the party whip to vote with her if conditions are met can probably be counted on one hand.

jones

Mirth wrote:
but it's telling that the markets barely flinched last night with GBP actually gaining.

Telling what? Serious question, I think looking to the markets to find reason or understanding is like reading tea leaves while holding a glass of water but it might be that I'm missing something obvious.

Mirth

jones wrote:
Mirth wrote:
but it's telling that the markets barely flinched last night with GBP actually gaining.

Telling what? Serious question, I think looking to the markets to find reason or understanding is like reading tea leaves while holding a glass of water but it might be that I'm missing something obvious.

Basing your entire reality on market movements is folly but for me it's telling that the result of the vote wasn't a huge surprising nor does anyone feel there's any increased risk at the moment.

That was just a shorthand anyway, feel free to discount it if it doesn't fit your world view. You can read this instead: https://www.ft.com/content/54b20532-1931-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21

jones

Mirth wrote:
jones wrote:
Telling what? Serious question, I think looking to the markets to find reason or understanding is like reading tea leaves while holding a glass of water but it might be that I'm missing something obvious.

You can read this instead: https://www.ft.com/content/54b20532-1931-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21

No I cant unless you copy+paste it.

Also I dont want to discount your view I tried to understand what you were referring to is all.

Claudius

Why would the markets move? Wasn't the vote outcome wholly expected? It was just the margin of the defeat. The only thing the margin realistically does is signal to outsiders (the EU) is that the government is very far from a deal and a no-deal exit is quite likely. But I'm sure the Fleet St gamblers have already positioned themsleves

Mirth

Claudius wrote:
Why would the markets move? Wasn't the vote outcome wholly expected? It was just the margin of the defeat. The only thing the margin realistically does is signal to outsiders (the EU) is that the government is very far from a deal and a no-deal exit is quite likely. But I'm sure the Fleet St gamblers have already positioned themsleves

A no deal isn't more likely than at any other stage in the past 6 months precisely because this was expected. Particularly since there are indications that Parliament now has the upper hand and Parliament is pretty united on not crashing out (except for maybe 50 nutjobs)

Furthermore, even if that doesn't pan out, there's plenty of talk to put forward an extension:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46889062
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/theresa-may-refuses-to-rule-out-brexit-article-50-extension

Gurgen

My money is on a no deal Brexit, which of course would be a disaster for everyone. This whole saga is so incredibly stupid I still find it difficult to accept that this is real.

Claudius

Gurgen wrote:
My money is on a no deal Brexit, which of course would be a disaster for everyone. This whole saga is so incredibly stupid I still find it difficult to accept that this is real.

This is what the people voted for. Give them their democratically determined desires.

Gurgen

The problem is that it has a huge effect on other people who did not vote for it, and I'm not only talking about the people in Britain.

jones

That's the problem with democracy in general innit

People vote for assholes like Trump and then a bunch of unsuspecting athletes expecting one of the biggest days in their lives are served BigMacs and French fries on silver plates.

Gurgen

It's only a problem with democracy if your idea of democracy is like the one in Greece around 400 BC. In the modern notion of democracy there are things like the rule of law, checks and balances and representative government. In other words, there are safeguards to limit the dictatorship of the majority, which are undone once you hold a referendum.

jones

Modern democracy and its institutions and checks and balances are sufficient to prevent the minority being negatively impacted by the vote of the majority?

I'm no fan of referenda either for what it's worth, usually it's just handing the agitated masses a target for their rabid anger (see Switzerland) and in 90% of the time the question itself is so loaded it should've never been posed (Brexit, Greece 2015). But let's not act like representative democracy isn't ridiculously flawed either

Mirth

goon wrote:
You reckon that will achieve anything? Reaching across the divide?

Labour's red lines and her red lines seem pretty incompatible when it comes to the customs union and single market and neither side, so far at least, have given any indication that we're willing to budge on those. The number of Labour MPs who may ignore the party whip to vote with her if conditions are met can probably be counted on one hand.

Well, she's just gone and done that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46901217

Even considering the mess she inherited, she could have made life so much easier for herself - terrible leader.

On the plus side, if the Tory party splits permanently over this it may actually be a small comfort.

Qwiss

Gurgen wrote:
My money is on a no deal Brexit

I reckon its just going to be pushed back again. The whole things pathetic from Britain.

Gurgen

jones wrote:
Modern democracy and its institutions and checks and balances are sufficient to prevent the minority being negatively impacted by the vote of the majority?

I'm no fan of referenda either for what it's worth, usually it's just handing the agitated masses a target for their rabid anger (see Switzerland) and in 90% of the time the question itself is so loaded it should've never been posed (Brexit, Greece 2015). But let's not act like representative democracy isn't ridiculously flawed either

They are not 'sufficient' and nowhere did I say that. They are, however, constraints that are absent in direct democracy. Of course representative democracy is flawed, but if you have a better system you're welcome to convince the world to adopt it. So far the alternatives haven't been great.

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