It doesn't even work in that regard because we're selling these players for less than we could have.

You can't make a player sign a contract.

Lagos wrote:

SamDaGooner wrote:

I never said he wont spend, i said he wont use that 25 million, he will buy players but that will be from his summer transfer budget, not from that 25 million, although he might use some of it which will prbably be on another wenger gamble worth 8-10 mil.

make up your mind

SamDaGooner wrote:

That 25 million will be lining stans/wengers and gazidis pocket,

:confused: I dont know how much clearer i can make this, we have a transfer budget for every summer (through all sorts of revenue) and that money is used to buy players, this 25 million will not be used for transfers.

qs! wrote:

After the way Nasri left last summer its ridiculous that the club has let Robin and Theo run their contracts down in the exact same way. We need to do a much better job in renewing contracts before its too late.

Basically the only thing you can do is threaten to release / not play the players in question. There's no way Van Persie would've chosen last summer to renegotiate. Wenger doesn't go the hardball option with players he wants to use.

There is a certain truth to what you are saying, but re-signing Perse is going to be expensive.

Well first of all the chances of a new manager coming in before wengers contract is up is close to zero and who knows he might just decide to renew it, and i would rather have the option of having a 30 goal season striker upfront for us next season rather than having 25 million servicing debts or paying wages of a failing managment team. Considering we the fans are paying some of the higest tickets, the least we can expect is the club having money to spend on improving the squad.

Lagos wrote:

whether it is used to pay down the debt, cash reserves, transfers or wages £25m is £25m and is £25m more than £0. so long as it is not siphoned out in dividends it's a benefit to the club. should one day Wenger or a new manager decide he actually wants to spend and buy true quality, I'd rather he be a ble to say we have £25m sitting somewhere from the RVP sale than oh shit where do we get money from?

How much is "the prize" worth these days? Shouldn't let RVP leave for less than it.

Cant wait to see those pound notes playing up front for us next season.

Lagos wrote:

SamDaGooner wrote:

Well first of all the chances of a new manager coming in before wengers contract is up is close to zero and who knows he might just decide to renew it, and i would rather have the option of having a 30 goal season striker upfront for us next season rather than having 25 million servicing debts or paying wages of a failing managment team. Considering we the fans are paying some of the higest tickets, the least we can expect is the club having money to spend on improving the squad.

I'm sorry but this isn't making any sense, on the one hand you talk about having money to improve the squad, then on the other you say we should throw away £25m. On the one hand you say we won't spend the £25m on the other hand you say we will only spend less than the £25m..........seriously? You can't spend what you don't have even if it's only half of it. We've never spent £25m on a player yet you think it's ok to throw away that kind of money, you say in all likelyhood we won't spend all of the money so it's ok not to have the money?

I don't get the logic someone help me!

Lagos we don't have to sell to create revenue, we have other sources of revenue to finance transfers, without having to sell our best player, it really isn't that complicated.

We have to sell to buy then? Hard to understand why you've been slagging Wenger off all these years in that case.

Also occurs to me Lagos that you're talking as if a season of Van Persie is worthless. We're not throwing away £20 million, we're buying something for our money, namely a season of Van Persie and all the associated things that come with keeping him (keeping your club captain, our only world class player and the most influential footballer at the club). That's without mentioning the fact that we are FAR more likely to win something if he is still here next season-how much would that be worth? Or that Champions League qualification is much less likely if we sell.

It's not like there's no position between 'we have to sell to buy' and 'sure we can afford to piss £25m up against a wall holding a discontented star to the final year of his contract'.

As I said in the 'How much should we pay?' thread, if we can afford to pig-headedly throw away £20m+ on Robin's transfer value now, why not just offer him an extra £50-100k/w on his 3-4 year contract, which would cost us less and quite possibly keep him on the books?

If the squad has to be sustained at its current level to keep us in contention, then if:

V is the expected financial value* of having Van Persie for the forthcoming season
X is the outlay to re-sign or maintain Van Persie
Y is the outlay to sign alternatives
Z is the return from selling him

Then as long as X < (Y - Z) < V we should definitely spend X.

It's an argument that may well have even more substance next summer if Robin is held to his contract rather than re-signing, because Z → 0 in summer 2013. Of course, his form and fitness may also decline (V → 0, Z → 0, Y → ?) …

… and then of course, if you've signed him to an exorbitant contract and he gets lazy, breaks both legs, or loses his edge, you end up with V < X over time …

• The distribution of V is pretty wonky, mainly based on whether we do/don't qualify for the CL

Exactly like timbo said the opportunity cost and having someone of van persies quality next season would have been a 30 million signing anyway. Unless you prefer having cash on the bank rather than a quality player out on the field.

I would have thought only arsene wenger and the board would want that.

Could argue that we should sell Song this summer because he'll probably be worth less in a yea when he only has 12 months left, or that we've 'lost' millions on Wilshere because his value was far higher 12 months ago than now. Think of all that money Utd left on the table when they didn't sell Giggs and Scholes a decade ago. Etc, etc.

As long as RVP is ready to commit to next season (at least) lets just concentrate on having the best side we can for next season. Worry about next summer next summer.

It's a fair point Tim makes that in your analysis the fact that 'scenarios' 1 and 2 occur a year apart is marginalised / not mentioned.

So in fact the 'loss' would be, conceptually,

£230m + (value of RvP season 2012-13) - £255m …

But you also missed out scenario 3: spending X < £25m (in addition to present/proposed wages, or if you prefer, vs wages of a megastar £40m replacement) to retain RvP for 3-4 years further as he enters the twilight of his career …

Wenger has been worrying about the future for too long that's why he brought a young cesc and a few more kids and look how that ended. it's time wenger thought short term and signings like arteta and santos make me think he is.

Lagos your missing the point, we arent looking for financial prudence based on assumptions. We are looking for success on the pitch

Yeah you need money if your actually going to spend it. Never in a million years will wenger buy a 25 million replacement for van persie, so having the proven player is more important than signing someone who could potentially replace him.

Burnwinter wrote:

It's not like there's no position between 'we have to sell to buy' and 'sure we can afford to piss £25m up against a wall holding a discontented star to the final year of his contract'.

As I said in the 'How much should we pay?' thread, if we can afford to pig-headedly throw away £20m+ on Robin's transfer value now, why not just offer him an extra £50-100k/w on his 3-4 year contract, which would cost us less and quite possibly keep him on the books?

If the squad has to be sustained at its current level to keep us in contention, then if:

V is the expected financial value* of having Van Persie for the forthcoming season
X is the outlay to re-sign or maintain Van Persie
Y is the outlay to sign alternatives
Z is the return from selling him

Then as long as X < (Y - Z) < V we should definitely spend X.

It's an argument that may well have even more substance next summer if Robin is held to his contract rather than re-signing, because Z → 0 in summer 2013. Of course, his form and fitness may also decline (V → 0, Z → 0, Y → ?) …

… and then of course, if you've signed him to an exorbitant contract and he gets lazy, breaks both legs, or loses his edge, you end up with V < X over time …

• The distribution of V is pretty wonky, mainly based on whether we do/don't qualify for the CL

I love this post! This is something Wenger would appreciate! Doubt Pat Rice talked to Wenger in these terms when discussing players...