I look at this deal and have to CONGRATULATE GAZIDIS, WENGER and Co.
The expected value of the deal (disregarding sell-ons and first refusal) comes out to about 38 - 39 million pounds. Then there are the sell-ons and first refusal which are very valuable options. I doubt he returns, but there is still some value there, and if he ever moves on to Inter Milan or Man City, we'd be able to grab a share of that transfer fee. If there is a 25% chance that they sell him in the next 4 years, and a transfer value of 40m pounds, and we get 50% of the fee, then that option would be worth around 5m pounds to us. Of course, Gazidis and his expensive teams will have run some scenarios to come to a deal that is acceptable to them.
Why do I congratulate Gazidis and Co. There has been a lot of unfair criticism of Arsenal for the supposed low price we got. Smart negotiators expand the number of items that can be traded to find a deal that works well for both parties.
1) Time: Barca might have low cash-flow right now, but we do not. We have used a gap of a few weeks to allow Barca to come up with initial payment.
2) Sell-on: dependent on whether Barca sell him or not. There could be significant upside for us if he ever does leave
3) Cesc not taking loyalty bonus / paying from his salary: again, a very valuable instrument
4) First refusal: Cesc obviously loves Wenger. Would Arsenal take him back? He's good enough, so why not? For those concerned about overall $$$ we are getting for Barca, note that this is a right that we would have paid for as part of this negotiation. I imagine that is something Barca offered as a way to bridge monetary gap.
We worked with Barca to move the impasse from being just about straight-up cash today, and got a deal that works for us, giving Barca time and giving us potential upside.
