I'm not too well-rehearsed on the subject, but it always seems like certain markets (the internet in the early 2000s, property a few years later) get massively inflated, then come crashing down a few years later. Over the last few seasons, transfer fees and wages have inflated massively, and now you have decent players going for upwards of £20 million. That being said, what kind of long-term effect will this have on clubs? The market is obviously effecting everyone, and with a few exceptions, it seems like very few clubs can actually afford the fees being thrown around. Does the debt problem have the potential to put entire clubs at risk? In other words, could we see what happened to Portsmouth happen on a mass scale?

I know this stuff gets talked about all the time, but I primarily made this thread to inquire about the big picture/long-term, rather than what happens on a club-by-club, season by season basis.

Well, I'm no expert either, but this is how I see it (economists please correct).

As I understand it, inflated markets collapse as a result of many buyers in the market having invested in assets that have a value that is strongly driven by short term demand. When a perturbing event causes confidence to fail, demand collapses and value collapses. If borrowing has occurred against that value, you get buyers falling further into debt which affects confidence and further expenditure, which makes them fall further into debt, etc. etc.

At the moment, the player market is inflated as a result of careless spending by sugar daddies. A sudden withdrawal of that investment even by one of the major players would cause the player market to shrink rapidly by a certain amount for the reasons just cited, I think.

The player market, however, doesn't really sustain any clubs as businesses. Even clubs that rely on developing and selling players for part of their income are generally spending that income on players, so if the market drops across the board they should survive ok.

Clubs have a relatively inelastic income from rights packages, commercial deals and gates due to the constant demand of fans. This is income that can be counted on to continue to sustain the sport.

However, the proportion of support (the "market share") also has significant inertia, meaning the income from these deals doesn't shift around smoothly in response to price signals. Fans have an untoward degree of brand loyalty in other words.

This means that asymmetric income bases persist and create the conditions for continued bad business decisions. In football, unlike other businesses, the desire for sporting success outweighs the desire for financial success leading clubs to make bad spending decisions. Portsmouth being the shining example of piss poor business management.

But a club might do that under any conditions, I suppose - in an inflated market or a normal one, it has relatively little to do specifically with bubbles, except that the unconstrained spending of sugar daddies exacerbates the income asymmetry and further motivates the bad spending of the poorer clubs. The FFP rules are designed to cope with this problem but they clearly won't eliminated it.

If TV declines significantly as a medium reducing ad revenue, and the net can't be as effectively monetised (doubtful, I think there's fat stacks in the net to be honest) then the income from broadcast packages could go down, but it seems more likely to me that that income will rise as global rights packages are more effectively negotiated. A sharp, prolonged downturn in the value of rights, commercial deals or gates seems unlikely.

The number of leveraged buyouts taking place seems to indicate that most investors in large football clubs are banking on the size of the football sector increasing markedly. The Glazers are a great example of that. They're up to their necks in debt, but every time you hear United's estimated overall value discussed, it's gone up by half a billion quid. Football's preeminence as the strongest sport globally should stand it in good stead as globalisation continues, so it seems like a decent bet to me.

Oh yeah and what various other posters have, in the past, said about the burgeoning middle classes of China, India etc. Those masses of people are going to flock to support PL and La Liga teams in droves.

The European competitions are going to be further emphasised by globalisation. I strongly believe there could be a sudden move to a "super league". Cricket shows it can happen at any time and with zero respect for the traditions of the sport, no matter how sacred. Qatar 2022 shows that the support of football's bloated, irrelevant governors can be had for a couple of posh dinners and a lap dance.

Good info. The premiership's foreign fanbase is MASSIVE, but I read an article a few months back that claimed that a ridiculously small amount of the fans generate a massive proportion of a club's revenue, and that things like shirt sales aren't that profitable in the big picture. I also think that a vastly improved TV deal will be absolutely key to guaranteeing financial prosperity. Here in the US, the NFL receives $8.8bn in TV money between 2006 and 2013 from ESPN ALONE. I think their combined revenue from all US television stations is totaled at something like $20 billion, with contracts ranging from four to six years per station. Those figures dwarf what the premiership brings in, even in spite of the fact that English football has a massive global reach.

You could definitely be right about the formation of a superleague. When consider the gap between the five or six biggest clubs in the UK and everyone else, you have to think that it's unsustainable on one level or another. The lower league clubs in the UK are also struggling. If you're a kid from East London or Essex, you'd definitely rather support man united, arsenal, chelsea, or even spurs/west ham than you would colchester, leyton orient, dagenham and redbridge, etc.

Information? Conjecture more like 😃 I did see somewhere (think it was Swiss Ramble?) that from an investment perspective, all clubs are seen as loss leading opportunities for capital growth.

The smaller clubs get little to no mindshare on foreign soil, there are few new fans for Swansea or Blackpool (or even Aston Villa) popping up in China and India, or Australia, in my opinion.

I don't know whether a super league will happen. The expansion of the CL has been acting as a circuit-breaker for people with that sort of ambition. Can't rule it out though as a significant move in that direction would gather momentum very quickly. Might be that no one wants to do it, but no one would want to be left out of it either.

burnwinter, i agree with you, but one thing to remember is sticky wages. despite the huge recession that we're in, wages have not really fallen at all for those lucky enough to still be employed. if some or all of the sugar daddy money left, i'm not sure that wages for the top, top players would fall.

Yeah, I agree, they wouldn't fall straight away, because they're under contract. But there'd be plenty of downward pressure.

You look at how relatively little Arsenal have in the kitty for wages and signings compared to Chelsea and City, and how much of what we do have as excess comes from City's overpayment for Adebayor and Toure. The trickle down effect has been keeping the financial second tier - clubs like us, Valencia, Atletico, Everton - afloat for years.

kamikaze wrote:

burnwinter, i agree with you, but one thing to remember is sticky wages. despite the huge recession that we're in, wages have not really fallen at all for those lucky enough to still be employed. if some or all of the sugar daddy money left, i'm not sure that wages for the top, top players would fall.

But it's not all bad in the global economy Kami, there are several sectors and areas like resources which are doing very well, it's very patchy at the moment.

But as regards our spending- The Devil drives as needs must.

Basically what is happening in the "global economy" is that the bourgeoisie are taking an absolute hammering from the ruling class (more or less the uber-bourgeoisie).

Just as the living standards of the poor ease themselves into contention with those of the middle class in countries like mine, the ultra-rich are further enriching themselves at the expense of longer hours worked, and personal debt that is tantamount indentured service suffered by the erstwhile comfortable professionals and tradespeople.

But no one is really worse off than before - we all have our flatscreen TVs and our broadband - so the effect is relatively unnoticed. It's a western world of wealthy serfs.

Burnwinter wrote:

Yeah, I agree, they wouldn't fall straight away, because they're under contract. But there'd be plenty of downward pressure.

You look at how relatively little Arsenal have in the kitty for wages and signings compared to Chelsea and City, and how much of what we do have as excess comes from City's overpayment for Adebayor and Toure. The trickle down effect has been keeping the financial second tier - clubs like us, Valencia, Atletico, Everton - afloat for years.

wenger's spending habits (with the board gleefully going along) may have distorted reality because there is no way in hell that a club that brings in over 200m in football revenues and a wage bill of 110m is a financial 2nd tier club like valencia, atletico and everton. those teams don't even pull in 100m and their wage bills are about half ours. i wonder if that was the goal, make the fans think our financial peers are those clubs and they would see 4th as overachieving.

They may not be our financial peers but they're certainly our peers on the pitch.

Investing in football is like investing in drugs, it's nothing like a bubble economy. Bubble economies thrive upon the impression that the sky's the limit. In football, the limit can be seen for most clubs all too clearly.

Indeed, in the financial system bubbles are a normal and regular occurrence.
They are a confluence of several factors, an generally bullish market new technologies the latest discovery and so on, it then takes on a life of its own and is "uncontrollable".
Football simply doesn't fit that model, it's an older existing market and it's rules and parameters very much controlled as Banduan said.

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