Champions 2025/26: Page 26 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One more in the Tolly

Champions 2025/26

awooga83

Klaus still worry about what Saka we will have going forwards, the healthy one may be pre injury and post might be something different not forgetting the world cup to come as well.

MistaT

JazzG -- I would love to see the average value (.1 xG, .2 xG, etc.) for our chances. My suspicion is that we created a large volume of low percentile chances by dominating possession/field. But we so rarely created great scoring chances.

Here's what I'm wondering - is there more variance in low quality chances or high quality chances?

For example, are 10 .1xG chances more or less likely to amount to 1 goal than 3 .33xG chances (breakaways)?

Claudius

MistaT > MistaT 10 .1xG chances more or less likely to amount to 1 goal than 3 .33xG chances

This is simple binomial math. Your three chances will lead to negative outcomes 65% of the time while the ten chances will lead to negative outcome 70% of the time. So on paper three big chances better than ten normal ones.

Your problem is this 0.3 xG is the threshold for how Opta and others define big chances. The league’s best finisher, Haaland, is about a 0.25 converter. The average shot is in the range of 0.1 to 0.12xG. So while the idea of 3 big chances makes more sense mathematically, in reality you’re talking about outliers.

Burnwinter

Claudius This is simple binomial math.

I know you know this, but it really isn't except on paper. Standard xG uses a gamestate-invariant model but whether a team is "peppering the opposition goal trying to break them down" or "hemmed in waiting for a counterattacking opportunity" isn't at all. I don't think @MistaT's question travels well in this independent Bernoulli trial register.

Over this last season I'd lay a bet clubs with a pattern of fewer but bigger chances but otherwise similar xG also conceded more xG and performed worse.

Meatwad

seeing how these english teams are getting on in europe this season is a real reminder how trash the premier league is and that's the only reason arsenal won it.

JazzG

Sicario2 No Wenger needed to go but but not hounded out like he did. This is the man who transformed the club from where were in the 90s to what we have become today, he didn't deserve two face cunts like Piers Morgan hounding him out and deserved to leave with dignity and respect. Speaking of him, he would probably be leading the charge to get rid of Arteta had we not won the league this year. Then again so would a few of Arsenal fans who are cheering for him now.

Meatwad Wenger needed to go but from memory he wanted to see his contract out and then leave, after how toxic things had become they decided to push that forward. The problems at the club weren't just down to Wenger, he was definitely one of the problems but I'm not having that he was the sole reason of all the problems. He was told to keep the club competitive on a shoe string budget and managed to do that until the last few seasons. There was an internal war going on with the Kroenke's and Usmanov and it was quite clear behind the scenes a lot of people pulling in different directions. Then we bring in Gazidis who was clearly only there to help ensure the Kroenke's got control of the club.

What makes you think I agree with Morgan's politics? I can't stand the guy most of the time. I don't really know or care what he believes in but the only thing in recent times I have agreed with him is calling out all this trans nonsense. I don't know if I am confusing you with someone else but I think from memory you may agree with as well....

Burnwinter

JazzG What makes you think I agree with Morgan's politics?

Same phenomenon that helps you along with categorical judgements such as "that trans nonsense" except for "that wingnut nonsense" 👍️

Big Willie Champ

JazzG agreed, I wanted Arsene to go around the time our football started turning shit (despite still havimg a reputation for playing good football). We'd regularly play shittier and shittier football and get battered by our rivals. That said the vitriol towards him was extreme considering everything he'd won for us. Then again he should have just bowed out when he won the FA Cup for us as well. All that to say fuck Piers Morgan and those plane hiring clowns.

awooga83

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert yep that Leicester failure showed he had lost it and football had moved beyond him. Wenger had a number of opportunities to control his own exit and leave as you said after cup final if he really reflected on what was needed and good for the team next but by the end he seemed more concerned on what he wanted and had lost that ability to think about what was good for the club he did so much for.

awooga83

Big Willie Champ agree but I think it became more extreme when it became clear he was stubbornly refusing to leave and do the thing everyone knew was right because essentially he didn't want to quit. That made it more bitter.

JazzG

awooga83 I don't think that was the case from what I remember, I think he was stubborn in that he wanted to see his contract out. He always said he took his contracts seriously and never walked out a contract and had another year to run. In the end the environment became so toxic he decided to go early. People like Gazidis didn't have the spine to stick up for him, probably helped drive him out and then fucking left soon after because he didn't want to be associated with the incoming shit show.

Big Willie Champ It wasn't even just what he won, he transformed the club from top to bottom. When he came we used to train on UCL (university) sports ground. When we sold Anelka we reinvested a lot of that money to build London Colney to have our own state of the art training ground. Then huge financial sacrifices made to get the stadium built. He could have been selfish and been like naah fuck that, give me the money for players and I'll win more but no he had the clubs long term interests at heart. I'm not saying we should have given him 5 more years but that guy could have gone on to bigger and better things many times but he stayed because he cared about the club. He could a lot of things wrong but that is human nature, he always had the clubs best interest at heart. Financially he was well compensated for his time here but he deserved to leave with dignity and respect. One of the best things Arteta has done is try to get Wenger more involved and made an effort to point out Wenger's contribution. As I think gunnerblog said Wenger built the stadium but Arteta has turned on the lights.

Football fans are generally the biggest bunch of hypocrites you can find. Demand unwavering loyalty when a player/manager is doing well but happy to give them the boot when those standards slip.

awooga83

JazzG don't think that was the case from what I remember, I think he was stubborn in that he wanted to see his contract out. He always said he took his contracts seriously and never walked out a contract and had another year to run. In the end the environment became so toxic he decided to go early.

We remember differently then arsenal was a joke under Wenger for the last few seasons we had stagnated and needed to change long before the moment came. Wenger used to view the club like that what was the right move for the club not for him but at the end it became about him and what he wanted whether it's was good for Arsenal or not and that made things bitter. He should have left earlier if he wanted to help Arsenal.

Burnwinter

Wenger brought it on himself and the fans defending him can't have been paying attention. If there were failures of class and dignity Wenger's were the most serious.

I'd wanted Wenger to move on since he squandered a great chance at the league in winter 2011 by not pushing to sign anyone. That already wasn't the first time, but of course back in 2011 I venerated him.

Wenger was a great manager whose greatness elevated Arsenal. Later the image of Wenger's greatness become Arsenal's greatest burden. I'm glad if we've repaired relations for the sake of closure, but I'd rather repair the present than rewrite the history.

Mirth

Burnwinter 2016 was the last straw for me. I thought winning the FA cup in 2014 and 2015 would reignite a fire in his belly but it didn’t. I don’t think it’s a surprise that he stopped managing altogether.

awooga83

Burnwinter yeah this fully at the end he was quite dismissive of the fans and pivoted to I've done so much for this club stuff he stopped talking about what's best for Arsenal and it was about why he should be allowed to stay and everybody should thank him whatever we did in the league. He became more focussed on himself and that drove a lot is anger. Once he said he was going it all evaporated.

JazzG

Arsenal was a joke because the squad had been starved of funds. We are up against a state owned club, a Russian billionaire owned club and Man Utd who to be fair even now commercially are one of the best clubs in the world.

Top players being sold and not replaced, this wasn't just down to Wenger. Kroenke's and Umsanov were both trying to take control and happy to do whatever it took to get there. Then on top we had a completely incompetent person in Gazids there. Only at the end there was a flurry of purchases which I am not entirely convinced were all Wenger signings.

Despite all that apart from last two seasons kept the club in the CL, which at the time became a running joke but I think a lot of other clubs later realising how big a deal it is.

awooga83

JazzG I'm sorry jazz you've made the point, fairly, about how Arteta has built us back full being a joke club and shambles and late era Wenger contributed to making us that. We weren't a serious club under him in that era we should have been ready to win that Leicester title when the oligarch clubs dipped but his obsession with just being 4th meant he'd stopped seriously investing or aspiring to be anything more. We brought in plenty of awful players Mustafi Silvestre and players like ozil who weren't serious about football anymore. We were battered by rivals he built teams that were not good enough

This whole narrative he was restricted by the board doesn't stack up he should have spoken out. If it take the line well that's not him then he's complicit and you cannot really know he was against it either. So it's very convenient to say he has nothing to do with it but he had pretty much full control of the club by that point shown by the fact we couldn't easily find away to move him on. He was absolutely accountable for the decline of arsenal as much as it's hard to acknowledge given where he originally took us.

Burnwinter

Wenger left in summer 2018, KSE bought Dein and Usmanov out in August 2018, KSE immediately started to spend more then boosted it further with the Project™.

I believe for most of Wenger's last decade as manager his supposed stinginess and acumen were the scanty fig leaf for the castration of our ambitions by KSE and Red & White's contentious dynamic as co-investors. KSE's only just done enough to be able to say the reparations to Arsenal fans have begun. As for Usmanov and Dein I'll remember them as fondly as real-life Bond villains deserve.

FEBravo

Burnwinter If he had only left one year earlier we would have gotten Klopp, and probably have won at least a league title shortly thereafter. He really wanted to come here.

I always had lots of time for Wenger, and was more patient than most, and was going back and forth, the FA Cups masking a bit the issues. But 2016 was definitely the last straw, and after that I don't think there were many fans who thought he was still the man for the job. The issue became more about how much abuse and vitriol you were ready to fling at him, and it was a huge relief to all when he left.

JazzG

Burnwinter I believe for most of Wenger's last decade as manager his supposed stinginess and acumen were the scanty fig leaf for the castration of our ambitions by KSE and Red & White's contentious dynamic as co-investors. KSE's only just done enough to be able to say the reparations to Arsenal fans have begun. As for Usmanov and Dein I'll remember them as fondly as real-life Bond villains deserve.

I firmly being Gazids was bought in to basically minimise spend, keep feeding information back so they knew what was going on. KSE were happy with bare minimum Top 4. If Arsenal had started winning the league or growing it would have made it more expensive for them to buy us out

They'll say it was worth it, they have probably 5x their investment so they are laughing....

JazzG

FEBravo If he had only left one year earlier we would have gotten Klopp, and probably have won at least a league title shortly thereafter. He really wanted to come here.

Fair but we should not have given Wenger a contract in 2017 then. Also Klopp would have been great but what it work at Liverpool wasn't just Klopp, it was Martin Edwards and the other guys there who helped create a good structure around for him to thrive. My cousins are all Liverpool fans they all say Klopp was a great coach his eye for talent wasn't always so good, he fought for Brandt over Mo Salah for example!

Burnwinter

JazzG They'll say it was worth it, they have probably 5x their investment so they are laughing....

From a business point of view, they nailed it. And since they are business people and Usmanov and Dein were conniving bastards, I don't blame them. But I have a lot of questions about the way Wenger seems to have used his status to hold us back to a degree during this period, even if I'm not sure if it was active complicity or just that he loved to huff his own farts about financial doping and his own genius.

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