Arsenal @ Newcastle | League Cup - tonight - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

Arsenal @ Newcastle | League Cup - tonight

Claudius

We lost first leg 2-0. Looking at the data below, the only way to summarise this is we dominated this and were undone by brilliant movement and finishing from Isak.

Given that this is our last game for 2 weeks, I would expect a strong team. Same as Sunday, with Nwaneri in for Trossard. Only question is Havertz who was holding his thighs, but if medical passes him, we ride our donkey.

Fearless prediction: 3-1 Arsenal

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius We lost first leg 2-0. Looking at the data below, the only way to summarise this is we dominated this and were undone by brilliant movement and finishing from Isak.

It's certainly not the only way to summarize it. Brilliant finishing from Isak explains the difference between Newcastle's goals (2) and xG (1.2). The bigger difference however is between our goals (0) and our xG (2.6). On that side, it's either brilliant goalkeeping or terrible finishing. Based on what I saw, it was mostly the latter.

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie It's certainly not the only way to summarize it.

"Arsenal 0–2 Newcastle" is the classic compact representation of all that shiny data.

I don't reckon we'll go to St James Park and beat Newcastle by three goals but it's not impossible. This one's a bit of a free hit. Let's see more of the energy that blew City away, win, lose, draw or thrash them.

banduan

They weren't brilliant finishing by Isak, they were good movement and some terrible defending.

QuincyAbeyie

banduan in terms of stats, I'd say that bad defending increases their xG since it gives them more shooting opportunities, but goals above xG must be from either good finishing or bad goalkeeping (and vice versa).

awooga83

Burnwinter yeah I just checked the city game again and the xg there does not reflect the outcome (1 v 0.81) so xg doesn't necessarily work that well on individual matches it's better as a general trend data point. There wasn't much in the game really we just could not finish the opportunities we created and Newcastle did with Isak making significant impact for both their goals.

Claudius

awooga83 xG is helpful, but always better to use all the data avaiable. That link I shared shows a lot of numbers that suggest we controlled this game, which is what I recall when I watched it. but Isak was money and we weren't. Same thing happened in United FA Cup game. Reminds me of that Fulham December 2023 game as well.

Qwiss

Claudius we lost because our over worked front line missed a load of good chances.

samthegooner

Claudius Ugh that Fulham December game gives me nightmares. We'd have a title if we could've capitalized on just a couple of those chances.

Claudius

Qwiss that too. you can't create that many chances over two games and not connect. we should've ended both of these teams

samthegooner

I have never really cared about the League Cup and was not too bothered at the result at home against Newcastle (obviously would've rather won) and I definitely remember saying I hoped we punted this away fixture to stay healthy. However, after looking at the fixture list with us not playing again for 10 days and about to head to Dubai for warm weather training, I hope we go for it tonight. I don't think the trophy aspect matters much personally - we've won FA Cups under Arteta but the real trophies are the PL and UCL prizes. However, the momentum of flipping a 0-2 result away at St James, following a 5-1 win against City, is probably immeasurable and could be a real inflection point in our run-in, both in the League chasing Liverpool and in the Champions League knockouts.

Hope Arteta really goes for it and the team puts in a great performance tonight that, at the very least, puts some fear into St. James. Selfishly, I'm hoping Nwaneri gets the start today after not starting on Sunday. Just love watching him play already.

MistaT

samthegooner -- I'm with you on not rating the League Cup, but its hard to hold that line when playing a rival with both teams starting their primary squad. I will say I much preferred the old route of using the League Cup to break in youngsters, rotate the squad, and in turn also give smaller teams more of a chance.

samthegooner

MistaT 100%. That being said, I'm excited for tonight's match and hope we really go for it. Following up the 5-1 win with overturning a 0-2 first leg at St James would be a huge statement of intent for the rest of the season.

USArsenal

samthegooner

I agree, but we have to be careful. The opposite could happen. If we field a very strong team there and DON'T come away with the overall win, it could deflate the good vibes the team has post-City.

Qwiss

USArsenal I don't think it would. My worry about a strong team is how in the red some players are. I'd rather lose this than pick up another serious injury.

Big Willie

We are unchanged from the City game

------------------------Raya,
Timber---Saliba-----Gabriel-----MLS
---------------------Partey,
-------Odegaard-------------Rice
Trossard-------Havertz------Martinelli

Don Pacifico

Surprised - expected Nwaneri to start in place of Martinelli who isn't going to be much use against Newcastle's 5 defenders.

MistaT

Hope Arteta has an accurate sense of Havertz's fitness, and a safe plan to maintain it. That lad needs a week of rest more than anyone.

USArsenal

Well, this is pretty much first choice team..

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

Expected Cala, Merino and Ethan to start.