You could just sense it when we started missing those chances that we weren't gonna win the game, sickening stuff.
Arsenal v Man Utd Jan 12th 3 PM KO - FA Cup 3rd round
In fairness you could sense it when we went into the season without a centre forward in the squad. There was never going be any outcome other than what's happening now.
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invisibleman18 I hear you and I don't disagree that we clearly needed front line reinforcement. But I also want to dispute the notion it was as big a fuck up as is being made out.
Full disclosure, I wanted us to sign forwards this summer and was disappointed we didn't. But additionally, I think with how many goals we scored and the points tally we achieved, it was probably a calculated risk. A risk that didn't pay off but it wasn't as idiotic as some have suggested.
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Don Pacifico I understand this argument but I also think it was a bigger risk overall not a it might go our way you are gambling that players who have not been able to consistently deliver based on their career are suddenly going to do that.
I think that's not a sensible approach personally you should be planning with the kind of output seen for such players over the last 3 years. Is Martinelli going to deliver that one great season or is he going to be in line with the last 2 we've seen.
awooga83 I think Arteta sees it holistically rather than at the output of individuals. The team had two seasons showing it was capable of scoring goals which gives him belief in the system. The problem this season is that the system has completely broken down, exacerbated by the various absences we've suffered throughout the last 5 months.
In football, the solution is always to buy more players.
Don Pacifico but the individuals, at least attacking wise, collectively contribute. It's you have question marks about pretty much every attacker bar Saka( and even he isn't a 25 goal player) I think you should be alive to that. It's like the thing about highest tally of goals yes but even last year we blanked in too many games. That sould have been something we were aware of and looking to improve otherwise your just deluding yourself
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Don Pacifico scoring 5 more goals than you need to win one game and then scoring 2 more less than you need to win the next game shows a +4 goal difference, but only 3 points. The only statistical average that really matters is points per game. The goals scored column is meaningful, but it doesn't count for much unless you're tied on points.
What depth and balance across the front line give you are potential solutions in difficult games. That's how you convert losses into draws and draws into wins. Raw goals-scored doesn't actually say much about this, because it counts them all equally instead of weighting them by their contribution to points earned.
Coombs — fully agree.
I’d go even further to look at the likelihood of scoring those goals (again) when planning.
Take this year for example, we’ve been winning games due to scoring at an unsustainable rate from corners/set pieces. In turn, Arteta seems to have been passive on addressing our front line’s ineffectiveness.
Havertz's wife apparently sharing some vile threats that were sent to her/ their family after the game. Shame on some of these Arsenal fans.
MistaT scoring at a statistically unsustainable rate is what wins you a league title. I don't have a problem with the set piece thing, it's a great coaching strategy to break deadlocks in difficult games, and is an excellent way to convert losses and draws. I applaud Mikel and Nicolas for their innovation on that front.
But it seems we doubled down rather than balancing it, and that is almost always mistake imo. The best Mourinho teams, despite being known for their negativity, always had a devastating counter attack to pair with their set pieces and defensive solidity. Likewise, Man City can break the deadlock with a set piece or unleash a flurry of intricate patterns to score from a possession-dominant position. Liverpool have a transition game as well as a possession style that seems a bit of an anomaly because they are basically a Klopp+Slot hybrid team at the moment, and they rely very heavily on Salah and Van Dijk. I think they're riding their luck a bit.
Our possession game is only decent, from an attacking perspective, and our set pieces and defense, as well as our defensive possession game, are superlative. Our counter attack is trash.
We may need to up our counter attack to at least "very good" and adjust our possession game to prioritize finishing off our decent moves. For the former you need pace and license to push forward more quickly in the right moments, as well as better finishers. For the other, you really just need better finishers, and probably more players who can beat their man. Our possession game is too oriented toward fashioning opportunities for mediocre finishers, which slows everything down such that the kind of chance they need is hard to come by.
However, I wouldn't mind if we kept the controlball blueprint and focused on making our counter attack superlative. We could then break teams with set pieces and counters, and strangle them to death with controlball. We have the high, mid, and low block press down, we just can't do enough consistently once we get the ball in a broken game state. That means a tall, rangey forward with a deadly finish, and an explosive winger with pace to burn.
Basically, Nico Williams and Alexander Isak.
Upping our possession game's conversion into goals means a midfield rethink, for me, and a finisher who is more present in the box. A more attacking, dribbly and shooty left 8, a metronome with legs like Zubimendi, and someone like Gyökeres or an Aguero regen might do the trick, along with a short-socked winger.
Coombs Zubimendi isn't a metronome by the way. His passing volumes are low compared to what's expected from the role despite Sociedad having plenty of the ball in most games. In any case, I don't think he's interested in coming here. Aside from that I agree with the jist of your post.
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Big Willie he sets the tempo of his team, whether for Spain or La Real. His passing is more progressive than Partey or Jorginho, and his short/medium passing accuracy is extremely high. He's also a better defender than any midfielder in our team bar Rice, since Partey has declined in that aspect of his game. He's always available and on the move. He is the hub. The only reason he's lower volume, imo, is because he moves the ball forward more quickly than other 6s and he plays for Real Sociedad. His passing volume is higher for Spain, I'm certain of it, even if I don't place a lot of importance on that particular stat.
Coombs sure but GS are a reasonable indicator, particularly when combined with the last two seasons of points achieved. So I agree with what you're saying but I don't think it detracts from the basic point I'm making (maybe you weren't trying to).
awooga83 again, I don't disagree with a lot of what you're saying but I think the view (ethos even) of the team is that if one player is off their game, then we have enough good players to make up the difference. And that includes goal-scoring. The problem I think we have, is that it's all predicated on the system functioning and the notion that that leads to robust chance creation in most games. But that's not been the case this season, exacerbated by the various absences we've had in the squad.
Not taking the piss but this exchange does sum it up. The only thing that matters is winning matches, so we should think about expected goals.
Burnwinter what we need is a weighted xG:G ratio to demonstrate our ability to score the goals that change the result of the game.