Arsenal Outs 2024: Page 17 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Arsenal Outs 2024

Claudius

mdgoonah41 that's literally not the logic.
1) we have a youth wage structure. this is a child that United want to take and pay almost as much as we pay ESR, a tenured first team professional. now we will have every kid thinking he can come and fight us for a massive wage
2) i posted elsewhere that is completely normal for kids to move around. even on our squad, our biggest name players have had 2 or 3 youth teams (see White, Saliba, Rice, Havertz, Odegaard etc.), so we should not be alarmist about kids leaving. Even if you look at big teams like City, they lost Garcia for nothing and Olise/Sancho for combined 16m pounds

DiabyKungFu

Claudius now we will have every kid thinking he can come and fight us for a massive wage

I would be more than happy to set the precedent that every single 16 year old who scores 32 goals at the U-18 level can get a £30000 per week contract. This "slippery slope" argument is just nonsense.

Qwiss

Claudius so should Lewis Skelly and Nwaneri not get proper salaries either? The reality is other clubs will pay them well so that's the market rate. We don't have silly flat wages at senior level, we assess each player individually. No reason the same can't happen with young players. Saying it's fine because players move around is nonsense. You are the one always talking about the business side being poorly run at football clubs, well this is an example of that. You want another young player who moved around? Omari Hutchinson, £20m we let just walk away.

Clrnc

Qwiss Was reported that Chelsea offered Omari Hutchinson 14k per week salary, while we are only willing to offer 8k or something.

mdgoonah41

Clrnc right this is where its insane to pinch pennies. thats literally like £300k per YEAR difference. if hutchinson would have flamed out and not developed, we could have sold him to some championship team for £2m in the worst case scenario.

for a club worth £2.5b (at a minimum) with £500m in revenue per year, its insane to pinch pennies at the youth level. we lose £70m on the pepe signing and move on to the next one, but we are going to lose 18 year old prospects who could develop into £30m+ players over a few hundred thousand pounds? its just bad business.

Mirth

Yep, youth recruitment is a long tail game. Will we be throwing good money at some average players? Yes. Will one or two star players recoup those costs? Also yes.

goon

DiabyKungFu

He may well be a league one level talent though.

Not sure how much wisdom there is in assessing a 16 yr old based on 1 mins highlight reels, but he looks anything but elite to me, and maybe the club agrees. The U18 story would support this theory.

Clrnc

goon they wouldn't be offering 15k for him which is the highest youth we would have been paying if they think he isn't elite

lorddulaarsenal

He’s the new Sanogo

goon

Clrnc

It’s a risk/reward analysis that DKF talked about. A hyped up average youth prospect is still worth trying to keep, develop and sell and it looks like 15k was their limit of ‘risk’. If nothing else, it’s worth noting the amount offered impacts the compensation fee.

You reckon if it was Ethan they’d have let him go over 15k a year?

Unlike Ethan, absolutely no one here rates Obi-Martin based on what they’ve seen, it’s based on him scoring 10 scruffy tap ins vs Liverpool or w/e, up against scandalously bad youth defenders who are half his size. Before anyone says I’m just saying this because he’s leaving, go and see my comments after the game and in general as he ‘broke records’.

I’m pretty confident too. Feel free to quote me if he’s a PL player in 5 years.

DiabyKungFu

I've seen a good deal of him and I think he reminds me most of a young Alex Isak. I think the idea that he doesn't have good feet is just factually wrong. Also, as I've said elsewhere, the whole "He's bigger than everyone so you can't take anything from that" is the sort of analysis that makes sense for 11 year olds but makes no sense for 16 year olds. There were folks saying the same thing about Lewis-Skelly two years ago. He's spent the last week bullying grown adults in physical duels as a 17 year old. 16 years old is already early enough where being an athletic monster at that age is highly, highly predictive of being an athletic monster in your 20s.

JazzG

Sounds like a mutual decision. The club didn't think he was worth the money he was asking for and he saw a better career path elsewhere. If he is being offered big money you can't blame him if he takes it. For him it is life changing money and the vast majority of footballers don't make it right to the top so he should be looking to make as much money as he can now.

Burnwinter

JazzG The club didn't think he was worth the money he was asking for and he saw a better career path elsewhere.

The speculative future is the bit getting left out in the money debate.

The endgame isn't £8k versus £14k per week for Arsenal. And it also isn't for a kid whose "team" wants to accelerate his wage into six figures before he's 20.

Obi-Martin knows Arsenal knows that he knows that Arsenal knows all this. So the leaked details of our offer reflect the nuanced truth: Obi-Martin's far likelier over this contract to break through with United than under contract to us, and that's his way beyond £100k per week.

Claudius

You guys have the numbers all wrong on Academy players. There are around 40 under 18 players, largely within a 2 year age band. If we look at our present squad 2 of them look on track for first team. None from the previous 2 years. So we are looking at about 2 in 80 players for the u18 are going to break through to the premier league team. This is extremely low yield stuff.

This is like venture capital. You do not pay over the odds for early stage ventures. This is a 2-3 percent game. You don’t pay senior level salaries in these circumstances. What you do is you create the circumstances to create a great yield, and then you harvest. This kid is not the first one to score bag loads of goals at junior level.

What I have seen is Nwaneri playing with grown men on at least 3 occasions and he looks at home. Double down on that.

DiabyKungFu

Claudius There are around 40 under 18 players, largely within a 2 year age band. If we look at our present squad 2 of them look on track for first team. None from the previous 2 years. So we are looking at about 2 in 80 players for the u18 are going to break through to the premier league team. This is extremely low yield stuff.

This seems basically equivalent to saying "Most players who are drafted by the NBA don't become impactful NBA players". This is true but it tells you nothing about the cohort of players drafted in the top 5. There is no such thing as a draft in football, so it allows people the freedom to smuggle in essentially uninsightful takes like this. It's quite clear to me that Nwaneri, Lewis-Skelly, Obi and Dowman are in one cohort and literally every single other player in the academy is in an entirely different cohort. Being in that special cohort is far from a guarantee of success (2 out of 4 would be a pretty solid hit rate) but there is an extremely clear step function difference between those guys and everyone else.

mdgoonah41

Claudius most venture capitalists, at least the successful ones, are ones who understand the need to take risks and possibly lose money in the short term to achieve big payoffs in the long term

CPM

Surprised at the outrage here. The club clearly didn’t feel confident enough that he is on track to become a top player, either a future first-teamer or a potential PL sale. If they didn’t even want to promote him to U21s that suggests there are some doubts, some more basic things to work on. You can’t commit to every player, you have to make distinctions and maintain your structure. A 16-year-old striker who is way bigger and faster than the competition is pretty high on the list of types of “prospects who don’t work out”.

Asterix

Obi Chido Martin apparently said he didn't leave us because of money, but because he didn't see a path to the first team and he believed in the Man Utd "project" more than ours.

.....

It's about the money.

mdgoonah41

lol the "man united project"....thats a good one

Meatwad

i hope he rinses manyoo for a lot of money and sucks. i can't wish them well on the pitch when they leave.

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