goon I've seen models vary from 2,4 to 2,8 for us and 0,67 to 1,2 for Luton. Regardless, even 2,4 (plus the 2-3 pens we should've gotten) should be enough for a routine win against Luton. One model that gave 0,8 for Luton also said that the chance of scoring 3 from 0,8 xG is 2,1 %.
This match was only exciting due to freak incidents, admittedly of our own fault.