Arteta’s 11 red flags : Page 6 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Arteta’s 11 red flags

Clrnc

Claudius I know, but I am just pointing out that the statement "City and Arsenal retain the ball the most" is false.

Claudius

Clrnc yes. We are 5th or 6th on that measure. But again, I caution people that that specific stat doesn’t say what people are doing with the ball and how they create threat. That was the point. Thanks for pointing out

Qwiss

awooga83 For xG for example a chance may statically be expected to result in a goal but if you have poor finisher, as we have found this season, you will miss many of those so there is still a problem there and refering to the xG won't explain that fully.

We are actually outscoring out xG. Our problem isn't the finishing its not taking the shots.

awooga83

Qwiss yeah that's fair I haven't looked at it recently, in that point i was more referring to when earlier this season we were struggling and the xG was pointed to to suggest that it wasn't an issue. But it's still valid to your point that on its own it doesn't account for player subjective considerations so it doesn't give you the full story. I still think Jesus, Havertz, Ode and even Martinelli aren't particularly consistent or great finishers anyway so if they are the people on the end of things then you will miss quite a few or maybe like you say they don't even take the shot because that's the player they are.

Big Willie

Qwiss We are actually outscoring out xG. Our problem isn't the finishing its not taking the shots.

Has our xG has been inflated by our chances from set pieces and that period between end of December amd the end of Feb where we were scoring for fun?

Before that I think I remember us not being able to create much despite having a higher xG than the teams we were playing but that a lot of our xG had come from penalties and set pieces.

goon

Qwiss

This is where the perception comes from. We end up with a lot of promising positions that come to nothing as far as xG goes, either because we don't take a shot or get the final pass wrong. We're pretty much level with City in terms of touches in the opposition box and clear of Liverpool, but are a distant 3rd when it comes to shots, and worse yet when it comes to shots on target.

We need to really work on making the early pass/shot if we want to get to the next level.

Claudius

Big Willie we started season 5th on xG until around late November. And then we started attacking more when Odegaard got healthy and our xG started creeping up towards third. We had the best xG and xG over performance in that post Dubai period. Overall we have the third best xG, and the 2nd highest over performance (after Villa).
We have the most goals in league, but fundamentally feels like we are narrowly 3rd best attack.

Burnwinter

This aggregate xG data isn't placed in its proper context. What matters is whether a team can score goals (or prevent them being scored) when goals might change the outcome.

What's our xG per 90 in neutral or negative game state versus when we're front running, @Claudius?

We're prolific scorers—a statistic heavily influenced by the cricket scores we racked up in the new year—but we're very bad at overturning a deficit. Put simply, we don't have an elite attack. If we did then we'd have laid a glove on Bayern a few days ago.

Claudius

Burnwinter hey. Don’t have that data off hand. Would need to look.
On what happened versus Bayern and similar teams, I think a useful exercise would be to look at our distribution of goals
-1. goals from deep build up
-2. goals from high pressing
-3. set piece and penalty goals

For the first two categories - also split by left, middle and right side of the field.

I would not be surprised if we over indexed on (2) and (3) and underindexed on (1). And then within (1), further under index on Left hand side build up - versus Pool and City.

Burnwinter

Burnwinter xG per 90 in neutral or negative game state

This would be a very interesting stat to see determined anyway ... pretty sure the dual, our xGA in neutral or positive game state, is very low (or good) this season

Coombs

The problem with any of this is still that xG is unaffected by shots not taken.

Claudius

Coombs yes xG will only look at shots. So you want to tell the story of building attacks. So look at quality of passing and positions taken up on the field. Some preceding metrics that help will be things like field tilt, and goal probability added or xThreat

Coombs

Claudius the only story to be told is that our forwards need to shoot more, and shoot better.

Qwiss

I think @QuincyAbeyie mentioned a pre shot xg before.

QuincyAbeyie

Qwiss hmm, just post-shot that I can remember, in that the quality of a shot is taken into consideration (a shot off target is zero post-shot xG).

Claudius

Qwiss that’s the goal probability added or xThreat. You’re basically saying how much value is each pass adding given the state of play.

Claudius

@Burnwinter bwcause I love you, xG in different game states. Our defense is always the best. And then our offense falls to 4th when we are chasing or winning. 2nd in even state.

Winning

Drawing

Losing

Burnwinter

Claudius Thanks for these. To me they'd tell us more, more concisely if it were just Arsenal, Liverpool and City visualised.

On the one hand we have very steady foundations. On the other, our two title rivals are much better at scoring than us after a setback.

Sounds about right, and supports my claim our attack is not quite in that elite, game-changing bracket.

Claudius

Burnwinter the losing game state is the one that stands out for me. Given that we are rarely in such a state, it would be possible to go through those games visually and figure out what was happening.

Claudius

Coombs yup. City have 10% more shots, and Pool >20% more shots, for the season.

« Previous Page