⚽ Arsenal vs Fulham, League, Saturday 26 Aug, 3pm: Page 25 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

⚽ Arsenal vs Fulham, League, Saturday 26 Aug, 3pm

Pepe LeFrits

Clrnc When people see xG stat heavily favouring us (especially when there's a pen and it increases dramatically), they will say we dominated and should have won through chances created when in fact we created not as much as it suggests.

When people see xG stat heavily favouring the opponents, they will say they got lucky on the counter and we dominated possession, absolutely refusing to acknowledge that we didn't play well.

It's just people using stats to twist it to a positive conclusion.

... how is that different to ignoring a high xG when it doesn't fit your view and pointing to a low xG when it does?

Clrnc

Pepe LeFrits I didn't ignore it though? I just said a penalty will skew the xG for either of the team and the truth was we didn't create many clear cut chances or tested Leno seriously (other the Vieira). Most of the time we dominate possession play was in the middle of the field.

We absolutely peppered Neto for example when we won 3-2 against Bournemouth but had a lower xG than this Fulham match. We forced him into save after save after save, and created many chances.

JazzG

Big Willie I agree those stats should always be taken in context but it backs up my point at home we give away too many chances. Against Forest there were plenty of complaints about our performance. We didn't create that many clear cut chances and that xg stat shows that. Against Fulham we did create decent chances and didn't take them.

With all due respect to Forest and Fulham we should be limiting them to chances from scraps at home and we aren't, last season in the run in we kept giving away goals and that is what cost us in the end. This season we don't look defensively as tight as we should, especially at home.

Coombs

I'm merely trying to make a distinction between system and selection, no twisting stats or excuses being made at all. Generally, I think the system works, but we aren't executing it well enough and I believe that selection is the main problem. Put Gabriel and Eddie in the lineup, drop Partey and Trossard, and I think we do much better.

FWIW, I think that Partey is starting in part due to Arteta's plan for developing Rice on an individual level. I think it's hurting us as a team and now it has cost us points, so I think it should stop asap. Rice's personal development is important for the long run, and playing him with Partey might very well accelerate that, but it's not worth it if we drop points.

IBL

awooga83 we're good enough to dominate them with the players we have but worried if Havertz plays and continues this cowardly form we'll be playing with a man down. Would def prefer Tross or Nketiah play ahead of him.

banduan

xG stats when taken in aggregate can be misleading. A map or list of xG per chances usually helps a lot more, and showed we should have got more out of this match.

OTOH, the same method shows we were rubbish vs Forest. And for at least half the match we were.

Gazza M

decent summary of what wasn't working. once arteta stops tinkering we'll be fine by the looks of it

Qwiss

Gazza M I think the problems shown in that video with Kiwior not really knowing how to play left back are compounded by Havertz not really knowing his role yet either, or it could be Arteta changing that role for him but either way when Martinelli didn't have the full back with him last season Xhaka would get into that space and give a passing option most of the time. Havertz on the other hand is much more central, either behind the play or in the box. I do wonder is Arteta encouraging him to get into the box there as its something he talks about a lot when speaking on Havertz. Either way its not working and needs a tweak.

Don Pacifico

Serious question but do we think he's going to stop tinkering? I thought the whole vibe for this season was being varied and unpredictable.

Sicario2 - Tier 1

Don Pacifico

When a manager has credit in the bank he can do as he pleases.

Once he loses this credit then results will become paramount and he will go back to what served him best. The question is at what cost is he planning to be ‘unpredictable’ and where does he draw the line?

For Man Utd at home following a bad result, there is no time to be taking risks.

Qwiss

Clrnc I think the matter of fact is that we didn't play as well as we could in both home matches, which on paper should have been easy games. We made it difficult ourselves, through thinkering, through structural flaws and of course individual mistakes. It's been a common theme in many home matches since the 2nd half of last season, probably started from the Brentford game.

I think the Forrest match was a more normal Arsenal performance that we've seen over the last 18 months. We were brilliant for about 20 minutes in that game and solid for most of the rest. We made a slight fuck up towards the end and seen the game out. TBH I wasn't too worried after that. I don't think we've played that well in the last 2 games though and that worries me. Palace and Fulham are not great sides, they can be decent on their day but we shouldn't be having such problems with them. I think you are dead right about teh xg stats and how they get ignored if we win and they don't favour us vs when we drop points and they do. Plus we have perennial xg under achievers like Havertz and Jesus in attacking roles (and Eddie last season, though not other seasons and not so far this season).

Burnwinter

Qwiss Gazza M I think the problems shown in that video with Kiwior not really knowing how to play left back are compounded by Havertz not really knowing his role yet either

I dunno, the guy implies Kiwior should be doing what White normally does overlapping on the right when Partey inverts. But he doesn't seem to understand that White makes those runs on the right flank because Saka and Øde do their thing on the right flank? Their specific traits and exchanges are what attract the defensive heat that makes White's overlapping decoy runs so valuable.

There's never going to be a similar Martinelli–Havertz thing and there never was with Xhaka either. Kiwior was probably told not to overlap, given that White was going for it every time he and Partey managed to switch, even before the subs were made, after which Zinchenko came on and we ended up with a situation more like last season.

More briefly, the issue's little to do with Kiwior, it's that an inverted right back won't work with the balance of our front four.

Qwiss

Burnwinter Martinelli is far more isolated so far this season than he was when he was playing with Xhaka and Zinchenko. Whether Kiwior is told to get forward or not isn't really all that relevant, its the effect that its causing whether he's told to stay back or not that is the issue.

Kel Varnsen

Too much has been made of Fulham's first goal. It's a mistake by Saka. Simple as that. If he just passes the ball back to White, we'd keep possession. We do that thing all the time. Quick passes to semi-marked players, draw defenders close, bypass lines - which is why Partey moves up right before.

banduan

decent talk about this

MistaT

banduan — sharp cat there

“If Zinchenko is out, and Jesus is out….and they’re essential to last years system, then you have to do something different”

I’d agree with that, but I’m not sure I love that Arteta’s response to the issue is. Without Zinchenko and Jesus we lose control, build up nous, and all that Jesus offers. I just don’t see how introducing Havertz helps much there and I’m still of the belief Rice or Trossard at 8 could do more, while not requiring us to change our efficient right side (from last season).

HomeSteak

If I speak...

banduan

HomeSteak If I speak...

like I said before, our new formation is fuck formations

Burnwinter

MistaT The guy's theory that Arteta is trying to experiment, getting the players used to the likelihood of having to play different lineups and formations is pretty sweet, but the reality doesn't quite bear it out. I wish Mikel were doing it though!

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