Fearless predictions: Page 3 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Fearless predictions

flobaba

Big Willie if they are favorites in England, it follows that they should be favorites in Europe

Bernard Woolley

Premier League winners: City
Top 4 finishers: City, Man United, Arsenal, Chelsea
Relegation: Luton, Everton, Forest
Arsenal position: 3rd
Champions League winners: Real Madrid
FA Cup: City
League Cup: Man United
Our player of the season: Saka
Best new player: Timber
Our most improved player: Ramsdale
Disappointing player (relative to price tag / reputation as applicable): Havertz
Top scorer: Martinelli
Top creative (xA): Saka

QuincyAbeyie

Big Willie I think that logic is faulty though.

The reason it usually doesn't happen twice in a row is because (probability of winning it year X) * (probability of winning it year X+1) is pretty low, not because the chance decreases after having won it. I'm not sure why City would be less likely to win it this year just because they did it last year?

They're unlikely to win it in the sense that the probability is under 50 %, but as long as no other team has a higher chance, they're still the most likely alternative.

goon

Big Willie

Yeah but if you had to put your mortgage on it you’d still go with City. Virtually all the other big players in Europe and England are trying to find their mojo.

Clrnc

Burnwinter In the medium term, the main issue they have is that PIF no longer seems focused on them due to the Saudi Pro League. That will work strongly against them, for starters many potential targets for their project may be approached to go to Saudi on megabucks instead.

Oh yeah that's a good point. Was wondering why they are not splurging. Most of the SPL clubs are state PIF owned.

Or another sinister thought would be that they are signing them for the Saudi league and then selling on a cheap to Newcastle next year, but that will probably be too obvious and stupid.

Burnwinter

Clrnc Yeah, the SPL seems a fresh strategic direction for Saudi capture of elite football, I can't see it as merely a very, very inefficient operation aimed at wrecking FFP for Newcastle's benefit.

I don't think the Saudi league will prove to be durable, however. We all complain football has become infested by money, but in the end few people will want to support a league over time where complaints like that make no sense, because there's nothing bar the money: not much history, no generational fans, few legible rivalries or affiliations, no academy products, and so on.

Qwiss

Clrnc maybe even behind Spuds although there are still time in the window.

Can't see that. I think Spurs are going to have a very tough season and Ange may not even last. Seems a poor fit for Tottenham. Don't think he'll work well with Levy and they'll either have no Kane or a demotivated Kane. Remember the last time he didn't get his move? He didn't score for half a season.

Clrnc Just look at their squad, many positions still bang average and last 2 years was them over performing their potential massively.

I think thats a reason they'll keep it up. Their system works even without stars, adding quality like Tonali could take them up a level.

Clrnc Think I might revise to include Liverpool in top 4, their pre season has been pretty good and Szobo looks inspired

I think if Diaz can stay fit thats massive for them too, he is better than anyone else they have for the left wing. Gives them much better balance.

Qwiss

Apart from Coombs Mbappe prediction this is all a bit tame. Lets take it up a notch.

Poch will end the season as Spurs manager.

lorddulaarsenal

Qwiss Daniel Levy has Ryan Mason on speed dial. Bound to get a few matches

RowJimmy

Completely mystified by how many are picking Chelsea to finish in top 4. They're still a shambles.

Clrnc

RowJimmy Same reason why many of us are picking us to win the UCL, just going for something different and not too serious.

Us winning the UCL is more remote than Chelsea making top 4, simply because we have been horrible in europe thus far

daredevil

Whilst, the first half showing against City was promising when the midfield battle was 3 vs 3, their shift to a box midfield when De Bruyne and co. came on gave them a numerical advantage in the middle which culminated in the goal scored by Palmer. I think as long as we continue to rely on an inverting fullback to give us 4 players in the centre vs City having 4 players permanently fixed in the centre, they will exploit us in the middle and bypass our midfielders with the free man. So tactically, I don't think we are setup to beat them, even though we produced a promising performance. The importance of this can't be understated as I think our prospects of winning the league will come down to our head-to-heads, as I suspect we will beat most of everyone else.

In Europe, I think our performances should theoretically be better having a settled team and not rotating like we did in the Europa League. However, I predict that our lack of experience in Europe will show and I can see us struggle against teams on the continent, similar to our recent draw against Monaco.

So I predict another second placed finish, a disappointing European finish, and a potential cup win as long as we avoid City. So much like last season.

RocktheCasbah

Premier League winners: Arsenal
Top 4 finishers: Arsenal, City, United, Liverpool
Arsenal position: 1
Champions League winners: Bayern Munich (I have no idea, but I don't think it will be City)
Our player of the season: Saka to reclaim his trophy after last season's aberration
Best new player Rice Rice Baby!
Our most improved player: Ramsdale
Disappointing player: This one seems all set up for Kai Havertz, doesn't it?
Top scorer: Saka
Top creative (xA): Odegaard

Sicario2 - Tier 1

Player to divide the forum the most: Havertz

RocktheCasbah

Sicario2 - Tier 1 definitely. Personally, I was - and remain - really excited by his signing, but it's already apparent he's not going to please everyone. Perhaps not even me!

KingslandBarge

Yep he should be fine.
RocktheCasbah
Yeah the body language too may divide some people. I like to think we’re all in unison about supporting him and wanting this move to succeed. For Arsenal, for him, but also to absolutely stick it to those Chelsea and Man United fans. At the same time, would be good to be as real as we can about where he is coming up short, even if one considers putting it down to a lack of confidence/feeling disempowered.

I was playing cricket and only caught parts of the game in the pavilion. From the highlights, I don’t think he made any particularly special runs on Sunday. He was where he was by default and he couldn't put away two regular/moderate difficulty chances. Fancy Nketiah would have but no worries, we won.

I am kind of keen to see the occasional 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-2-2 shapes in early possession with Havertz+Trossard up front or as second striker and Raya distributing. Route 1 cunning.

Qwiss definitely. Would be good to see them switching seamlessly too.

HomeSteak

Premier League winners: City
Top 4 finishers: City, Liverpool, Arsenal, United
Arsenal position: 3rd
Champions League winners: Bayern
Our player of the season: Odegaard
Best new player: Timber
Our most improved player: Ramsdale
Disappointing player: Havertz
Top scorer: Martinelli
Top creative (xA): Odegaard

Ricky1985

Premier League winners: Arsenal
Top 4 finishers: Arsenal, City, United, Chelsea*
Position: 1
Champions League winners: Man City**
Our player of the season: Saka
Best new player: Rice
Our most improved player: Martinelli***
Disappointing player: Partey
Top scorer: Saka****
Top creative (xA): Odegaard

*I can't pick between the teams I see as vying for 3rd and 4th. Liverpool have the most talent, but I think Klopp is done there and I don't see him pulling them up again, United are ordinary but might be annoyingly solid across the season, I fancy Newcastle to fall away but they could still add some good players, Chelsea are all over the place and have been very unlucky with a couple of key injuries, but I rate Pochetinno and think he'll quickly make them solid and hard to beat, and that might be enough this season.

** I think Arsenal have a serious chance of making a good push for it as all the other big hitters are on their knees, but, City, setting aside the psychological difficulty of retaining old big ears, are the favourites.

*** Not that Martinelli was poor last season, obviously, but I think he's a burst of physical development away from kicking on to another level. Not sure he's quite there yet, but he might be by Christmas.

**** Bukayo might steal a march as Mr. Mbappé takes a little time to adapt to his new surroundings! 🙂 In all seriousness, if Gabriel Jesus is our Number 9 and injury free, he will get 20+ goals in all comps. Still think Saka, and maybe even Martinelli, will pip him though.

KingslandBarge

Think there are some big moves to happen yet which will change my predictions. Dules has had his senses tingling about City for one.
Smith Rowe and Martinelli are really nice shouts for most improved. If Martinelli happened to be our most improved player, surely he'd be in golden boot territory.

Pepe LeFrits

Re: Chelsea, they've lost Nkunku for several months (probably half the season). I'll be shocked if they are anywhere near the CL places. The competition is too tough.

Qwiss

Pepe LeFrits their squads extremely thin. They'll be relying on guys like Conor Gallagher to be at the level of Odegaard, KDB, Bruno, etc if they want to make top 4.

Clrnc

Burnwinter We all complain football has become infested by money, but in the end few people will want to support a league over time where complaints like that make no sense, because there's nothing bar the money: not much history, no generational fans, few legible rivalries or affiliations, no academy products, and so on.

To that point, I would just say the Saudi league has far more history and fan base than the Chinese league and apparently they have already secured TV rights to over 170 countries now for their league football. If they can sustain this level of spending for the next decade then it could be possible.

Burnwinter

Clrnc Fair play that the Saudi league undoubtedly has history of which I'm ignorant—as is the rest of the world of course.

I think the money men end up misunderstanding how leagues and clubs work pretty badly. Ultimately leagues and associations have massive regulatory authority, they're always reluctant to act when there's money flowing but they can. Likewise governments can regulate to protect the sport domestically, as Johnson threatened to do with the last ESL proposal.

Add that to the general instability of these ventures and I think this league will eventually slide back. On the bright side, with a lot of our squad locked into long contracts we might be the beneficiaries of a steady talent drain to Saudi Arabia over the coming few seasons.

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