Expectations - 2023/2024 Season: Page 38 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Expectations - 2023/2024 Season

JazzG

In the PL we've probably had one bad half of football since December and that was the 2nd half against Villa.

Sicario2 - Tier 1

JazzG
Not good enough. After those dropped points to Fulham/West Ham we basically had to be flawless. Arteta has miss-managed the team. ESR plays no mins all season and is then expected to save us?

Tam

awooga83 we’ve had good results away at Anfield and the Etihad so we’ve got an away result in us to difficult teams, and without looking again I think our away defensive record is better than our home record by a fair margin.

awooga83

Tam I meant we haven't gone to a big singer and won. Yes we've had good draws but we've not been able to go away and do the business.

The fans have no influence on the season as well people, as human beings do, will have different outlooks. I'm sure there were some people who were worried or super sure if today, neither makes any difference.
I don't think it's unreasonable looking at the state of play to not think City will throw a run if wins together. Even if somewhere they dropped a point I don't fancy us to come through without dropped points we are looking burnt out and this year we were supposed to have learned about that. Of course you could have circumstances that swing it back but they are low likelihood and it's the same reason the predictors marked us down because we've not been able to navigate these waters in the past.

JazzG

Sicario2 - Tier 1 Those type of standards are going to result in disappointment.

I do agree that our dropped points against West Ham, Fulham and Villa might come back to bite us.

Qwiss Yesterday was poor, no doubt about that but Bayern and Wolves will tell us a lot about this team. Not ready to write their obit just yet.

Exactly, we go to Munich and win and beat Wolves we might have 2 matches against City. If we turn them over they'll be doubting themselves. Yesterday was a massive blow in the Title race, no doubt about it but we aren't out of it yet.

awooga83 I think it's just the worrying trend against Bayern at home we looked a bit off our level and we are a team that very much suffers with our system when the level isn't there as it's a demanding way to play. This has carried over to villa so signs the team as a whole is struggling. But we need to somehow get a reaction to show something better then last year.

It was on my mind that the Bayern game might fuck with our heads a bit. I think the manner in which we conceding those goals has knocked our confidence. Saying that first half against Villa we looked the better side and should have gone in to half time with a lead.

Burnwinter

We're roughly where City were a week ago. If this is the end of the league challenge for Arsenal, it's a shame City didn't call their efforts off last week.

awooga83

Burnwinter well the difference is they had two vulnerable teams who likely had mistakes in them to drop points. By all means I want us to win our remaining games I just think that probably we won't be able to do enough looking at the team at the moment.

Burnwinter

awooga83 well the difference is they had two vulnerable teams who likely had mistakes in them to drop points.

I'd say the difference (if there is one) is that City have already kicked on from that setback, whereas half this forum has folded our team's hand on its behalf.

I understand the misery, but come on. We've already come back to lead from this position more than once during the season.

Gazza M

Don Pacifico they outplayed us in the 2nd half more than we did in the first half. that was the first time I've seen us outplayed in the league for months. they were brave enough to keep playing around our press, which wasn't as sharp as it normally is. we've been swamping teams that play like villa did today, but the gameplan broke down today

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter believing is fine, but if there really isn't a difference between our situation right now and City's a week ago, Arsenal supporters aren't the only ones who are being tricked.

The Opta computer thingy had City at 40% a week ago (70% now), while it has us at 18% - so it has us in quite a different situation than what they had City in.

The bookies give you a 5x payout if you bet on Arsenal winning the league, while City had about 2,5x a week ago (1,4 now).

Now, I'm not saying these are entirely precise predictors, but I do think they show that it's not exactly irrational for an Arsenal supporter to be more negative about our chances of winning the league than what City supporters have been while in chasing position.

Burnwinter

QuincyAbeyie The Opta computer thingy had City at 40% a week ago (70% now), while it has us at 18% - so it has us in quite a different situation than what they had City in.

Right, and what did it say about Arsenal at the very outset of the season? This nonsense would drive you mental. And what did the model say about City last week?

The Opta simulator includes past season's performances in its model. Are we the same team in the same situation as last season?

For those who think it can't happen, it may help to ponder Arsenal winning the league as a case of the real (events that actually happen with their irreducible novelty) triumphing over the merely possible (things which have already happened, projected into an etiolated model of the future).

In any case:

6 matches out, 2 points behind. It's all up for grabs now … and that's not about faith, that's just football.

awooga83

Burnwinter as Quincy stated City were 40% to win the title with arsenal 30% so the model still had city as the more likely team before these results. Yes it's looking at historical performance but that's why it has City so high, based on the previous seasons performance they pick up more points then us. We are a different prospect to last year but are we better? Or just different limitations, I think I read somewhere we are still about 3 points worse of then last season? We've swapped some of the bad results but they're has still been too many of them.

QuincyAbeyie

Burnwinter you really think irrationally fickle Arsenal fans is the only reason why Arsenal supporters (and betting companies) are much less confident of a title win today than what City fans were a week ago and that there's no logic behind this?

Burnwinter

awooga83 as Quincy stated City were 40% to win the title with arsenal 30% so the model still had city as the more likely team before these results.

You've only gotta scroll back a couple of dozen posts in this very thread to find me pointing out that the Opta model for outright winner is going to swing like a weathervane in response to every setback in a close title race.

The fact it's doing that week by week, match by match is a testament to the inutility of this kind of model under short range conditions and in response to unpredictable, and even non-analytic conditions and circumstances, and little else.

Leaning on the Opta percentages at this point means using a season-long analytic model, skewed by design to the club that's won five of the past six titles, to rule on questions such as whether Trossard buries that presentable chance.

It's an irony that the less salience such a model has, the more interest there is in its prognostications. Might as well ask Paul the octopus—RIP.

Burnwinter

Clrnc They rotated in their last few matches despite having such a thin squad.

Yeah, they've really managed it well in the run-in, they've only dropped … [checks notes] … 10 points out of the last 18 available to give Spurs every chance of pipping them to fourth.

Gazza M

the slightly intangible issue that really irks me is the robotic level that pep and his frauds have raised the game to. we've been objectively oustanding for months, arguably the strongest of the title chasers, but after one bad afternoon basically everyone is resigned to city running away. and they're not wrong either - that's precisely what they're going to do. now we're going to sit here beating ourselves up, digging out our players, after 20 years of waiting for our turn and watching it get buried on ONE bad day out. it really shouldnt be this way. they've stamped any humanity or suspense out of the title chase for years. 4 in a row is a mockery. pep is a sadistic little shitbag to have stuck around for so long. I hope his entire era at city ends in a hail of asterisks and ignominy

Clrnc

Gazza M actually come to think of it finishing 2nd is very impt as they surely will be stripped of titles and deducted points

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

Gazza M beautifully written.

I pray for the most satisfying of comeuppances to befall that shithole, and that shitcunt sadistic bald fuck.

Sicario2 - Tier 1

Gazza M

We knew we had to win every game bro. Fuck city but we knew our mission and we failed. This is more on us. Title was in our hands no mistake about it.

awooga83

Gazza M very fair points about how difficult City make the league when your are up against them. The set backs that have potentially cost us when you look at the results are still too many dropped points against teams we should be able to beat but City punish you more for those mistakes.

It's why I said before that you know that's what your up against and you need to be able put in a series of high points returns over multiple seasons to give the chance to catch them on one of their "lesser" seasons. It's brutal but that's where you have to set the bar now to compete and we knew it from last season with the run against Liverpool, West ham and Southampton. We couldn't afford those types of slip ups. I would also say this season City have looked the most gettable then in some others which also adds to the frustration.

I would love there to be some justice with the charges but I have no faith in the premier League to bring them through and city will fight them in court for years to avoid it.

Burnwinter

Gazza M the slightly intangible issue that really irks me is the robotic level that pep and his frauds have raised the game to.

Completely agree with you on how this affects perceptions and feelings (and Opta's model), but no other club's ever going to get past them if this stuff's taken as a given or even a good bet.

If you look at the last 10–11 matches we've substantially outpointed City and Liverpool:

If these PPG numbers were to stay as is and not even improve in relative terms (yes, yada yada harder fixtures) then we'd win the league on GD or thereabouts.

daredevil

Gazza M .

Good post. This is exactly where I landed.

Qwiss

City are very strong favourites now but if someone back in August had offered us 2 points off them with 6 games to go and going into a CL quarter finals second leg on an even agg score we'd all have taken it. Yesterday was poor, no doubt about that but Bayern and Wolves will tell us a lot about this team. Not ready to write their obit just yet.

« Previous Page Next Page »