Just saw that Opta have United with a 1.3% chance of finishing in the top 4. Seemed crazy low given that they're only 6 points off 4th. Then realised that they're 6 points off City, but 10 points behind Villa in 3rd!
They also give Villa over an 80% chance of finishing in the top four, which also feels crazy given Spurs are just 5 points behind them.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/opta-football-predictions/