Is my understanding of xG correct - in that it doesn’t account for player profile (who has the chance), and only looks at the type of chance?
For example, a cross into the box with one CF vs two CBs will have the same xGF (say .1) no matter if the CF is Giroud or Jesus?
I bring this up to consider some of the xGF stats we’ve seen around our team and games. Against Fulham we had a dominant xGF but I never felt like we dominated that game or consistently created high quality chances.
So then, what are the types of chances we think our team will beat xGF metrics for?
Martinelli needs to be released through on goal more (like his goal vs Brighton). To don that requires more adventurous passing from deep and am acceptance of less control.
Saka needs more opportunities to cut in along the 18. Is there someone besides Odegaard who can help facilitate that? Doesn’t se to be Jesus or Nketiah’s game to set that up….
And what of Jesus - does he have a type of chance we anticipate him over delivering on?
Finally, we come to Havertz and the question of what we’re trying to do with him? And honestly, I can’t help but think that Trossard will be a better fit as I believe he’ll exceed his xGF AND seems a player who could help create the type of chances Martinelli and Saka will over exceed.