So I did maths as well, not very good at it, and hate maths when it comes to football, what the fuck even is that shit with Liverpool have 33% chances to win, draw whatever, it's football, it does not work like that. But here goes.
City have dropped points in 8 games this season, 6 !! of them came after playing mid week.
So we have 2 scenarios, 1 where they get beat by Bayern and 1 where they get past Bayern and face Real Madrid.
Scenarios 1, they lose to Bayern.
Then they have only 4 more weeks of double headers(one week will be CL - FA Cup, but still, fatigue will get to them and we play them right after the semi final, on a weekday). I will put here just 1 L. And in the rest of the games they have in the PL, as single weeks, I will set them 7 wins and 1 draw. (but we hope it will be more)
That gives Arsenal the option to win the league by: A) Getting 7 wins, 2 L and 1 Draw from the last 10 games.
B) IF we overturn the GD(they are in front by 2), then it gives us the option of getting 6 wins, 2L and 2 draws in the last 10 games.
Again, this is if City goes on a big run and finish the last 11 games with 9 wins, 1 L and 1 draw, the most they have won in a row this season is 3! (this SHOULD mean my prediction very pessimistic and they will drop more points then that)
Scenario 2, they win vs Bayern and get to have fun with Real Madrid in the CL. This is where in my opinion, we win the league easy. I will be watching the games and cheering them on, in a strange way that double header will be a huge huge tie for Arsenal.
In this scenario, they will have 6 double weeks(again one is a CL - FA Cup).
In this scenario, I think they will take 1 L and 1 draw here, let's hope it's against us. And in the rest of the games I will give them all wins bar 1 draw again. That gives us the following option:
A)Getting 6 W, 2L and 2 draws from the last 10 games
B)We made up the GD, and we have to get 5 W, 2L and 3 draws from the last 10 games.
But as note here, if they have 6 double weeks, 4 huge CL games(a semi final vs Real), 1 FA Semi final, I really think they will drop A LOT more points in the league. They will focus on the CL, no doubt.
All these scenarios are very conservative, and have City set as going on a run they have not gone on this season so far. To me, is vital they get past Bayern, so lets hope Bayern don't sack the weak manager they have, and of course Pep will not freak out and go full on Pep, and try Ederson as a winger and Haaland as a keeper in the tie, beacuse thats what he does in general, when there is pressure.
We have a much much harder schedule , but less games. It's gonna be very hard...so we need to keep our form up and just go.
