Joao Felix: Page 6 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Joao Felix

QuincyAbeyie

That's basically just saying "you need to negotiate", which of course they're doing if they want him. That's what they're doing with Mudryk as well, and any intended deal that isn't over the line.

Claudius

It’s not just about renegotiation, it’s about the deal story. How you frame what people are getting out of a deal is very important. I’ve done this in deals and it changes the entire complexion of your negotiation because you go from being very opportunistic to being more long term and partner oriented. But the problem is that often that can take months to do and we only have 3 weeks to work with Atletico while United are in the wings.

Burnwinter

Claudius Now you’ve established a ridiculous valuation for the guy even before he played well

I think you understand this better than I do probably, but because I'm pretty relentless, I'll do a little rundown on the value in this kind of loan.

Now, first of all, context. A permanent move for Félix is a high risk transfer all day. He's a lanky 23 year old 70kg tuga playmaking forward who's never played in England and is managed by Mendes, but has world class technical ability. This signing would be like Fabio Vieira on crack.

A simplified model could grid out three scenarios across two binary variables:

(Win or don't win the league, player doesn't perform):
- Player isn't working out, but club can release him
(Win the league, player performs):
- You've got a star at training who might want to stage an Arsenal £5Xm transfer saga
- Worst case you brought in a player who helped win the league but can be released with no liability
- Your status as champions gives you alternatives in the market
(Lose the league, player performs):
- Player is working out, but with no financial advantage from not winning the league, you can still release him

There's clear value in being able to release the player given the range of financial positions across all these possible outcomes, hence the "day rate" for a half season loan is gonna be higher than the effective rate for a five year contract.

Claudius

I’m fine with your model, Burns.
I’m just not fine with the pricing on the player, that’s all. Martin Odegaard is third favorite (20:1) in the running for Premier League player of the season. We paid under £2,5m for his entire loan fee including wages two Januarys ago. And now you want us to pay 8x that for Joao Felix?

QuincyAbeyie

All that matters for Kroenke when it comes to that price is whether they think Arsenal in the long run will be better or worse off by paying it. It may very well be too expensive, but Ødegaard is irrelevant to that question. What anyone else in the past has cost us is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is if Felix can provide quality that earns back the price we pay and if spending it elsewhere would earn us more.

And in this context, earning us more is not about resale value. Top 4, league titles, status etc. - everything has a value, although calculating it is the hard part.

Burnwinter

Was only wrangling with Claude because he seemed to say a £20m loan fee was the same as £40m a season [or by extension £200m over five seasons]. That's nonsense. But I see now that wasn't the substance of his objections.

Be curious to know how the club itself models things like the expected benefit to performances and results of a given signing.

Claudius

Burnwinter
Yeah. I just want value for money, and I think after we spent years dumping Ozil, Auba, Kola, Laca (we still have Pépé lurking), this represents a return to bad value. Player is excellent. But not at that rate.

Daz

With the obvious difference being all those players you mention Claude were purchases and contract renewals. It was the ongoing commitments to paying high wages for players who were no longer returning sufficient value that was problematic. This is an ultra expensive short term loan with minimal ongoing risk.

Burnwinter

Right, although … appearances do have a material impact in the market. If we're the club who says "Sure we'll pay your stupid loan fee", that does cost us I guess.

There's a lot of sides to this, but what I keep going back to: every single time since 03–04 we've had a league tilt, we have failed and I've really regretted us not going for it in January. And the excuse has always been "the model", so I don't buy that: I think the rational move here is to be all in.

Claudius

We also need to think of the consequences of this “all in” approach. We knocked off about £100m in expenses from removing bad contracts. We are presently struggling to get deals with Saka, Martinelli and Saliba across the line. All want approximately £200k per week. We’ve had to extend their contracts to give us time to complete the negotiations.

How can we plead austerity in negotiations when we simultaneously commit £1,000,000 per week to a loan move?

It’s not just about doing the exciting thing to get the player we all love. It’s about the implications on what we do next - our next contract renewal, our next transfer, making Felix permanent. We automatically make ourselves look like United.

Segway

Looks like I'm in the minority here but I am not convinced about this guy at all. He's way too inconsistent for the prices mentioned and don't think he will move the needle for us in any significant way. Also, where would he fit in the squad? He's not a striker so he would not be an alternative to Nketiah. Let United have him.

Pepe LeFrits

Segway Looks like I'm in the minority here but I am not convinced about this guy at all. He's way too inconsistent for the prices mentioned and don't think he will move the needle for us in any significant way. Also, where would he fit in the squad? He's not a striker so he would not be an alternative to Nketiah. Let United have him.

I'm kind of leaning this way too. I wouldn't object to us getting Felix at the right price but he sort of feels like a square peg. That was fine in the summer when we looked like a team facing a battle just to get in the top 4, but when you're chasing the title you really need your signings to be an absolutely perfect fit. I'd probably prefer Vlahovic at this stage, were he to become available again

Don Pacifico

I don't purport to be an expert on our finances but for every penny KSE put into the club, are they not expecting it all to be paid back (with interest)? Thought I'd mention it as haven't seen much discussion of this point. To that end, I'm not sure I subscribe to the position that we can happily throw money at this situation without having some caution (particularly given what we invested in players whilst in the EL and through the pandemic).

I have concerns about being saddled with 'hidden' debts (as far as I can tell, our financial state has become more opaque since KSE took full ownership) but happy to be proven wrong by someone better versed in this topic.

QuincyAbeyie

I mean, getting money back is the only reason they're owning a football club so yes. I said this earlier - the only thing that matters for every signing we make is if Kroenke expects that signing to earn Arsenal back at least what they're paying for him.

Claudius

Similar to the Brighton game, all our forwards were completely wiped out by the end of the Newcastle game. Coupled with the rain this contributed to all the sloppy play you saw towards the end. We could really use Felix if he was available. He can over Martinelli, Nketiah and Odegaard comfortably, allowing us to bring one of them off the bench once in a while.

But Mitomo is definitely worth looking at as well. He is an outlier on xThreat. Our beyond any of our players, Salah etc in terms of how his carries contribute to chance creation. His pass contributions are high too. But Brighton will bleed us like sheep

Clrnc

Claudius Mitoma is less versatile than Mudryk. If we buy him it certainly must be on the left. He is extremely effective there cutting in, like Robben.

RowJimmy

What I like about the idea of Felix is that I think he brings a different approach than any of our current front line players and can cover any of the front line positions. His dribbling is exactly what we needed against Newcastle. With Mudryk I worry that he's too much like Martinelli, both in terms of starting position and skill set.

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

RowJimmy he seems to be much trickier a dribbler than Martinelli IMO.

MistaT

Felix instead of Xhaka in the 8 would have been a difference vs Newcastle, but mainly in the second half when we were no longer defending.

He would have done far more with the balls Zinchenko was threading in between the lines. Unfortunately we saw Xhaka’s limitations last game in that he can’t receive and turn as fluidly as needed vs a compact defense.

goon

I like Mitoma but the combination of him playing for Brighton plus the fact that he's going to turn 26 puts me off.

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