Mykhaylo Mudryk, Ukrainian Wizard: Page 19 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Mykhaylo Mudryk, Ukrainian Wizard

lorddulaarsenal

To be fair my source isn’t that reliable

Asterix

Your source is you isn't it?

Burnwinter

Bit of an old article, but this is basically a stats man pouring cold water on Mudryk's likely Premier League trajectory. His conclusion: this is a 50–50 Pépé type situation waiting to happen.

https://www.cannonstats.com/p/is-mykhaylo-mudryk-a-mistake-waiting

Coombs

Burnwinter This ignores the only real thing that matters, imo. Both Pepe and Mudryk have the talent and physical profile to make it anywhere, that much I'm quite sure of. It's who they are and what they're capable of when it comes to stress, adapting to new circumstances (on the pitch and off it), willingness to work hard to improve, stay humble and commit to a project, and stay fit that tips it one way or the other. Just below that, I'd say they also have to get lucky with the people around them, and whether or not they fit into the environment, which may or may not be their fault.

The conclusion of that article is basically the same conclusion you'd make for any prospective transfer - i.e. it might not work out.

Kel Varnsen

Burnwinter

I have near zero belief in decontextualized "analytics" when it comes to football. Anyone with eyes and some understanding of football can see that Mudryk is a much more talented player than Pepe was when we signed him (particularly close control and awareness of surroundings).

As for the joint probability calculation of independent events, that's just common sense that applies to all transfers. Is the point that we should minimize risk by only signing cheap players?

Doc

Burnwinter

There is obviously a risk, even more so for me with players whose main attributes is dribbling as I tend to find if they cant replicate what they have been doing when its time to step up, their game is more likely to fail... hard to tell how big an issue it could be until he is here and you see what his mentality is like..

I have come round to him a lot more in the last few weeks watching the footage out there... his game is a lot more well rounded than I thought, good vision/passing range.. my other concern regarding end product, he looks to have improved this season on that as well.

Still don't think its worth the crazy money being mention (90-100m) but looks like it is in a more reasonable range now and I also reckon he will be another one that might take some time to settle but if it 'clicks' for him, we will have some player on our hand.

Ultimately agree with Dula too, Arteta/Edu have generally been great with quality of signing and more importantly what the team actually needs.

Burnwinter

Fair point. I don't think Cannon Stats really skimp on those aspects there, after all the piece inserts that Athletic graphic with all those "intangible" reasons for a transfer not to work out.

The interesting part is the dot point section that starts:

Good goal production, but maybe some air in the numbers with 5 non-penalty goals from 2.7 expected goals. He is also putting nearly 70% of his shots on target right now which is something that will probably not persist.

As for the rest, you can forgive some rawness given Mudryk's only 21, but the idea of this transfer depends on him developing a fair bit under our tutelage. And his baseline pace and technique seem solid.

lorddulaarsenal

Don’t worry about all that guff Burnsy. Key difference is Mudryk will have been hand picked by Tet. He doesn’t miss.

Big Willie

Kel Varnsen Anyone with eyes and some understanding of football can see that Mudryk is a much more talented player than Pepe was when we signed him (particularly close control and awareness of surroundings).

Have to agree there. I was all aboard the Pepe hype train that summer when it looked like we were anout to sign him hvaing just seen his numbers and hearing the hype about his dribbling and goalscoring capabilities. After going and watching some of his touch videos (for that matter even in the highlight comps), it was clear to me that his dribbling seemed chaotic and not what I could say is someone who will leave you from a standing start, rathe rsomeone needed to be running at speed with space to really do damage.

The one place he really showed me up was his shooting. His non penalty goals in France all seemed scuffed efforts or ones a good keeper would easily save but here he was deadly.

In any case, Mudryk looks the real deal. Hope we can finalise this sooner rather than later.

Burnwinter

I think there are positive signs with this transfer, to be clear, but I also think we can't readily afford for it to be a Pépé style disaster, so I hope we really have done our homework. I do think we've got lots of reasons by now to trust Arteta and Edu to understand which players will work out.

Kel Varnsen Is the point that we should minimize risk by only signing cheap players?

Don't know if you read the article mate?

It's made quite clear within that the granularity of our overall transfer activity matters due to FFP. The question is not the risk of any given transfer, and the premise isn't that we should only sign "cheap" players. The premise is that our aggregate spending over time is incrementally bounded based on our season-to-season financial position. The conclusion is risk should be mitigated across the aggregate spend with the objective of an expected risk-adjusted football results improvement—not just an improvement if every single transfer works out.

For transfers of this scale, the risk is high. The linked analysis whence that Athletic graphic comes is worth a look.

In short, if you're an average Premier League club signing two Pépés, only one of them does well on average, so you can only incorporate an appropriately weighted contribution into your model of how the side will perform after they are signed. We may believe Arteta and Edu are far better than the average but … are they?

Shorter still: big transfers are both more likely to fail, and their failures matter more, so they need to be planned with care.

The idea under such conditions it's not worth it to contextualise Mudryk's goals output in the UPL with the observed xG or shot accuracy is peculiar. That's what xG and shooting stats are for, they're unreliably interpreted measures but better than nothing, and far preferable to selectively edited highlights reels and influencer posts. The disastrous history of "anyone with eyes and some understanding of football" calling the shots is precisely why Pollard, Ensum and Taylor's 2005 research paper proposing the ideas that have become xG is now so influential and widely discussed. 🙃

goon

Pepe didn't fail because of his play style, he failed because he lacked the intensity, burst and assured touch. Even then he wasn't dreadful, but those details meant he was never going to be the success his price tag demanded.

Any transfer can end up not working out but what makes me more confident is that Mudryk being specifically recruited for his skill set into a stable environment where the manager knows what he's trying to achieve. His role in the team will be clearly defined and it's pretty simple too.

goon

Yeah, I think I raised his dodgy bobbling touch before we signed him too.

Big Willie

goon think you did. I kept hoping I was seeing things wrong, or maybe watching the wrong comps that didn't show his full abilities, such was the level of hype he had brought with him from on OMITT and in the real world.

Clrnc

I wishlisted Pepe way before we signed him but even then I didn't expect him to have that little impact with us. Basically he wasted his peak years here and lost confidence totally.

Nothing compared to Ricky though, that huge analysis thread with tons of video on Pepe had us all sold 😆

Pepe LeFrits

Ah Ricky. He is missed.

QuincyAbeyie

Did he not make the jump here?

Pepe LeFrits

QuincyAbeyie Hasn't visited since Nov, but hasn't been a regular (at least by his own standards) in a fair bit longer

Clrnc

Can he twerk more for us? This is ridiculous HAHA

Don Pacifico

Clrnc

Not a fan of his taste for interior design.

Pepe LeFrits

I'm guessing he still lives with his parents

lorddulaarsenal

Pepe LeFrits think he recently become a single man again. I taught him how to pull loads of women so he should be having fun with little to no time to log in here.

If that’s not the case I hope he’s ok

Don Pacifico

lorddulaarsenal I thought it was the mirror on the shoes trick you taught him ?

« Previous Page Next Page »