Premier League 22/23: Page 77 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Premier League 22/23

Claudius

Yup, Clrnc. They've chosen to build a base, and they can keep adding Bruno level players to it. That's scarier than trying to stuff a bunch of Robinhos into a squad as City tried at first or as United often tries to do.

Tam

Botman cost them £35m and has had a really good start in what has been an impressive defence. Missed a couple of games but largely straight into the team as a starter, which is notable because they dropped points in them, one being the last minute loss to Liverpool.

Burnwinter

I reckon a few people in this thread are watching them closer than I am, but I don't see how a manager doing exceptionally well, and an outperforming squad with a few bona fide stars is a recipe for immediate ascension to the upper tier of the league.

They have piles of money and a rational approach, but I don't think any other cashed up club in the league's history has achieved such a feat.

That's why despite their progress I predict they will have to work more in the market, and turn over their squad for a little longer to reach that level.

Looks like there are two spots up for grabs in the top four this season, and Newcastle will have to get past three of United, Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool to arrive in one of them. These days that's a list of four clubs with comparable or better squads, and regrettably all of them now have competent managers.

Claudius

Burnwinter wrote:
I reckon a few people in this thread are watching them closer than I am, but I don't see how a manager doing exceptionally well, and an outperforming squad with a few bona fide stars is a recipe for immediate ascension to the upper tier of the league.

They have piles of money and a rational approach, but I don't think any other cashed up club in the league's history has achieved such a feat.

That's why despite their progress I predict they will have to work more in the market, and turn over their squad for a little longer to reach that level.

Looks like there are two spots up for grabs in the top four this season, and Newcastle will have to get past three of United, Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool to arrive in one of them. These days that's a list of four clubs with comparable or better squads, and regrettably all of them now have competent managers.

Burnsy, it's more about looking at the underlyings.
On xG they have the 2nd best defense and the 4th best offense. They are generally doing a good job of creating getting the ball upfield and preventing teams from doing the same against them. If you look at Chelsea, United, Liverpool and Spurs, they each have critical challenges with one or more of those issues which will block them from being successful. So Newcastle are well positioned to take advantage of these frailties.

There is still a big, big gap to what City are doing though.

Burnwinter

Have you thought about what underlies the underlyings though? :hat:

xG and xG against for the season do not give a full picture of where each of these clubs is at. You are not reckoning with the greater narrative of managers bedding in and sacked, squads surprised to find themselves in their dotage, etc.

Since it's all fun and games for one more season, I predict Newcastle won't make top four this time round.

Claudius

Burnwinter wrote:
Have you thought about what underlies the underlyings though? :hat:

xG and xG against for the season do not give a full picture of where each of these clubs is at. You are not reckoning with the greater narrative of managers bedding in and sacked, squads surprised to find themselves in their dotage, etc.

Since it's all fun and games for one more season, I predict Newcastle won't make top four this time round.

They've been going strong since last season. So I'm tempted to go with their stability over the chaos elsewhere.
They feel like West Ham, but with the biggest purse in football's history to keep augmenting the squad as needed

Qwiss

Burnwinter wrote:
They're a solid side on a good run with a good manager, but the pressure's right off them.

Despite their progress under Howe, I think they will go through another round of turnover and renewal, integrating more big money signings no doubt, before they get to the stage we're at. It gets harder when expectations set in and stalwart, decent players have to start being cut to make way for upgrades. The process has a way to go for them.

Their solid to good run has lasted almost a year at this stage. Some of the "stalwart, decent players" have been completely reshaped under Howe. Whats more he's doing it while 2 of their biggest star attackers in Isak and ASM. If they come back for the post World cup 2/3s of the season they could improve. They're also likely to sign players in January. I think they'll finish top 6 and I wouldn't be shocked if they got top 4. They should certainly be in the mix.

Clrnc

Burns, Newcastle not making top 4 is expected this season so that's not too much of a risk prediction 😆 beyond their average first team, look at their bench ffs. Those are relegation players made to look good under Howe. Lacelles, Lewis, Shelvey, Targett , Manquillo, Wood, Fraser, Murphy. Lol

can't see such an average squad just depending on Howe's coaching being so sustainable compared to the talents Chelsea and United have.

Burnwinter

Well, exactly eh. You'd think it'd be a pretty safe, rational sort of claim, but we've got a few in this thread who think otherwise and are pushing back.

If you look at the history, clubs generally take several years to turn a mountain of cash into dominance. Newcastle are an interesting question mark this season.

Qwiss

It seems more like you are moving the goal posts. No ones talking about them being dominant or even a lock for top 4.

Sicario

Emery to Villa.

Hopefully new manager bounce v Utd at home.

Claudius

Who needs a super league?

Don Pacifico

Turns down Newcastle but chooses Villa...weird. Maybe Unai is a football moralist of sorts...?

Claudius

Will only intensify the famous Arsenal - Villa rivalry.

goon

Villa intensifying their efforts to sign ESR clearly.

Don Pacifico

Only if they don't get Denis Suarez...

lorddulaarsenal

Burnwinter

Qwiss! wrote:
It seems more like you are moving the goal posts. No ones talking about them being dominant or even a lock for top 4.

Nothing up my sleeve. I'm saying Newcastle won't make top four. That's a clear position with daylight to yours and Claude's.

What has either of you been saying, if not that they're a decent shout to make it?

"Dominant" or "a lock for top four" are not even in the conversation.

Claudius

By the way, I’m going along a probabilistic position, Burnsy. I’m nor saying it shall happen. But things point towards Newcastle being a strong top 4 contender.

Of course things could change after World Cup but that’s what things look like as of now. Us 2nd. Spurs and Newcastle the best of that group. But we also have 7 trying to go into 4, so all sorts of outcomes could occur.

Burnwinter

Yeah I get you mate, I just don't reckon they're true contenders and thought it'd be more fun to call it. It's the nature of OMITT that sometimes you can't hold an opinion round here without a certain degree of palaver …

We'll see what happens, but I am certain history and hotter competition from the incumbent contenders will squeeze them out this year.

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