Top 4 this season, is it achievable?: Page 9 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Top 4 this season, is it achievable?

Shady

70 points looks like a reasonable target to achieve top 4 this season. We need 31 points to get there. Having had a look at our fixtures, we may need to see something like below. Personally, I'm just going to use this template to see out the season, adjusting where necessary (i.e. failing to win a 3-pointer means bumping up a 1 or 0-pointer). I think the below grouping is reasonable as there will of course be the odd underperformance and hopefully overperformance.

3 points: Brentford (H), Wolves (H), Watford (A), Leicester (H), Palace (A), Brighton (H), Leeds (H), Newcastle (A), Everton (H)

1 point: Villa (A), Southampton (A), Man Utd (H), West Ham (A)

0 points: Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Spurs (A)

Shady

In comparison, for Man Utd to reach top 4 they need 27 points and so need to do something like this:

3 points: Leeds (A), Watford (H), Spurs (H), Leicester (H), Norwich (H), Brentford (H), Brighton (A), Palace (A),

1 point: Everton (A), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H),

0 points: Man City (A), Liverpool (A),

lorddulaarsenal

Arsenal away looks particularly tricky!

Shady

And to round it up, Spuds need 34 points, and something like this:

3 points: Burnley (A), Leeds (A), Everton (H), West Ham (H), Newcastle (H), Brighton (H), Brentford (A), Leicester (H), Burnley (H), Norwich (A)

1 point: Man Utd (A), Brighton (A), Villa (A), Arsenal (H)

0 points: Man City (A), Liverpool (A)

I really don't see them winning 10/16 matches, no matter how easy those 3-point games look "on paper".

QuincyAbeyie

Thanks Shady. It does look close to impossible for United in my opinion.

Burnwinter

Rough odds currently being offered for us, United and Spurs to reach the top four are 11/8, 19/10 and 9/2.

KurtEisner

Shady wrote:
70 points looks like a reasonable target to achieve top 4 this season. We need 31 points to get there. Having had a look at our fixtures, we may need to see something like below. Personally, I'm just going to use this template to see out the season, adjusting where necessary (i.e. failing to win a 3-pointer means bumping up a 1 or 0-pointer). I think the below grouping is reasonable as there will of course be the odd underperformance and hopefully overperformance.

3 points: Brentford (H), Wolves (H), Watford (A), Leicester (H), Palace (A), Brighton (H), Leeds (H), Newcastle (A), Everton (H)

1 point: Villa (A), Southampton (A), Man Utd (H), West Ham (A)

0 points: Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Spurs (A)

That really is reasonable. Thanks for the write-ups, I'll bookmark this 😆

Honestly, if we win against Spurs and Man Utd, and I think it's not all that unlikely, Top 4 should be in the bag, it'd allow us to slip up at St. James Park, or against the likes of Brighton/Leicester/Wolves. Feels great to have proper big games against our biggest rivals coming up!

Jed

If we keep the Xhaka-Partey pivot healthy and available for the rest of the season, we’re finishing top 4.

Big Willie

Our hopes rest on the shoulders of Xhaka, God help us.

goon

Xhaka has been good and seems to be enjoying this new role where he’s allowed to get forward. Funnily enough he doesn’t slow the game down higher up the pitch.

KurtEisner

goon wrote:
Xhaka has been good and seems to be enjoying this new role where he’s allowed to get forward. Funnily enough he doesn’t slow the game down higher up the pitch.

I think he does, because his passes are too telegraphed, but I agree he's been better in his new role. It's just a matter of time before he fucks up again though.

goon

I mean he's no Gundogan, but he's composed and actually picks the right pass more often than not and that's actually a good skill in the final third. If nothing else it shows the potential for where this side can really develop with a good acquisition.

Sicario

That’s Spurs result was really annoying.

If we had a Kane we would run away with Top 4.

Still, who expected they would lose to the Saints and Wolves. Think it’s going to go down to the wire. Won’t be good for our hearts but at least makes our season interesting.

Plenty of mid-week fixtures too. Which is fine but our squad wouldn’t coped if we were in the cup competitions.

Our biggest opponents for remainder of season:

1) ourselves
2) ref’s
3) spurs
4) Man Utd
5) West Ham

lorddulaarsenal

Even if we miss it. We are two signings away from being a level above what we currently are. Spurs may nab fourth but they won’t stay in the champs league positions mid to long term

Sicario

Forget missing it. Let’s go for it, it’s an unreal chance we have. To have nothing to play for but top 4 and we’re in such a good position? We may not get this good of a chance for a while. Seize the moment.

Anzac

Sicario wrote:
Forget missing it. Let’s go for it, it’s an unreal chance we have. To have nothing to play for but top 4 and we’re in such a good position? We may not get this good of a chance for a while. Seize the moment.

Exactly this.

awooga83

Yep, the way things have fallen it's really there for us and we should be able to deliver it no excuse really. All the teams including us have inconsistency but we have quite a few things in our favour. Fair play spurs got their result but it's in our hands here.

MistaT

goon wrote:
Xhaka has been good and seems to be enjoying this new role where he’s allowed to get forward.

Be nice if he could find his shooting boots again. He scored a couple of crackers early in his career at Arsenal. Could use some additional goals out of the midfield.

Jed

Xhaka is objectively our best midfielder, despite all his flaws.

banduan

Jed wrote:
Xhaka is objectively our best midfielder, despite all his flaws.

nah mate. I was looking at Partey the whole game v Brentford and he's by far our best CM.

Xhaka was good, mind. I like the new half-space role he's taking on.

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