Has Arteta Truly Turned it Around?: Page 177 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

Has Arteta Truly Turned it Around?

Sicario

This thread was completely dead when we were undefeated. Lose one game and all the vultures come out. Hahah couldn’t make it up.

QuincyAbeyie

Sounds terribly like you're describing yourself and the Auba thread.

Anzac

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
Mate, it says everywhere that he's been fired.

All I'm seeing is that they may have decided to do so but are awaiting approval/confirmation by the owners = nothing confirmed as yet.
Only seeing The Sunday Times / Duncan Castles & Romano actually saying he has been sacked (but not confirmed), & everyone else saying he is on the brink.
That said I agree that it seems most likely that he will be.

Anzac

If MU DO sack OGS I repeat my earlier comment following Nuno's sacking at TH, in that IMO AFC do NOT have the time for a 3 year long term plan to regain top4. Further to this I suggest we are following down the same rabbit hole as we saw under AW after the move where we ended up in perpetual transition towards an end state that had no end date and was always just out of reach as we were always at best 1-2 players 'short'. I'd also suggest that players will be looking to leave so as to win titles and silverware during their prime years.

Anzac

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/8618/Stages/19793/TeamStatistics/England-Premier-League-2021-2022

These stats for our shooting do not make any better reading.
We are 8th for shots at goal per game, 6th for shots on target per game, shoot almost as much from outside the area as in it, and we've scored more from set pieces than open play, with only Norwich scoring fewer goals via open play.

Again the top4 are there on merit including WHU re shooting numbers per game in terms of shots taken and on target. Perhaps surprisingly MU are ahead of us in both and are 5th in each, whilst TH and LCFC are behind us in both categories.
Top4 are also the only teams with a win ratio higher than draws and losses combined, whilst we have a 'neutral' balance along with Wolves and MU.
MU's 'issue' is they don't spend enough of their play in the final 3rd = same numbers as us, but ahead of us in regards to shooting numbers.

Defensively we allow the 6th most shots against per game - more than our shots taken.
We make the 6th least tackles per game and the 3rd least interceptions behind the MU and MC as having the least for each. The problem being we average less than 50% for possession and sit in 15th place, and we are 10th in terms of passing accuracy.

Lastly we spend most of our time in the middle 3rd, and the least time in the attacking 3rd. MU spend the same time in both the attacking and defensive 3rds.

Clrnc

Qwiss! wrote:
Clrnc wrote:

So... Emery didn't survive this after a very good run of results against these expected stats. I remember back then Klaus saying it was not sustainable and in the end it caught up with him. Will Arteta survive or will performance suddenly improve?

https://understat.com/league/EPL

xG table here. Has us 9th.

Sort it out by xpts and we are 12th. By xg for and against and it will be lower. It's the same it seems

Anzac

Clrnc wrote:
Qwiss! wrote:
https://understat.com/league/EPL

xG table here. Has us 9th.

Sort it out by xpts and we are 12th. By xg for and against and it will be lower. It's the same it seems

Any way you slice it our numbers do not support our position/numbers on the table.

awooga83

The similarity to United is crazy, Ole sometimes puts a run together but was never convincing. As a rival fan even when they finished second my views were he's nowhere near good enough and I don't think he'll go onto anything. You can see that in Arsenal now. We can have a run of matches where things look okay but our lack of real attacking gameplan the negative GD and often far from convincing performances to me show there remains the same underlying issues.

I don't believe anything that I've seen from Arteta in the last 2 years has shown me there is a manager that is good enough for what we want to do.

goon

Dodgy use of stats here, what exactly is xG differential supposed to tell you other than we got hammered by the big sides?

Looking back pretty much every result has gone the way of xG, the exceptions being Palace (Arsenal win), Brighton (loss) and Leicester (loss). Leicester racked up their xG after going 2-0 down while I doubt anyone here is going to argue we were unlucky not to beat Palace.

Chance creation is an issue though, when all of your wins are marginal you run the risk of results swinging the other way. One mistake or a bad day in front of goal and suddenly you're dropping points you shouldn't. Unless you have ruthless forwards it's not really sustainable, we need to start creating more sooner rather than later.

Qwiss

goon wrote:
Chance creation is an issue though, when all of your wins are marginal you run the risk of results swinging the other way. One mistake or a bad day in front of goal and suddenly you're dropping points you shouldn't. Unless you have ruthless forwards it's not really sustainable, we need to start creating more sooner rather than later.

Thats exactly the issue. Games being like that tells me we are a midtable team who's on a good run of luck. That happens a lot in the PL. We are just as capable as of things going the other way. And this is basically the top of our form. We have no midweek games causing fatigue and we've only really had Xhaka injured which frankly isn't necessarily a bad thing. I'd worry how those margins go when the fixtures come a bit quicker and we lose a player or 2. Especially with AFCON on the horizon.

goon

I don't think Arteta is going to 'coach' us into better attacking football, if you wanted to be optimistic the hope is that he's able to maintain the stable base long enough that the players start to play with some more confidence. The likes of Partey, Saka, Odegaard in particular are definitely capable of more than they're showing and I think those three are key to widening that margin just enough to make enough games a bit more comfortable. During AFCON our style may actually help to batten down the hatches and squeeze out results we need.

flobaba

How does AFCON help our style?

goon

AFCON doesn't help our style, our style, helps us cope with the personnel losses because the games should still be tight in theory. Although one of those games being the NLD isn't ideal.

Clrnc

goon wrote:
Dodgy use of stats here, what exactly is xG differential supposed to tell you other than we got hammered by the big sides?

People raised it before you.

We are still firmly in mid table no matter how you look at it in terms of expected performance at both ends of the pitch.

Klaus

The thing to keep in mind is that xG stats are macro stats. The variations will even out in the long term, just like mathematical probability. It's not impossible to flip a coin five times and get four heads, but if you repeat it all a few more times you're going to get a roughly equal number of tails.

You can steal a win like we did against Crystal Palace or you can get beaten by numbers like we were by Liverpool, but the truth is that we're neither that good or that bad most of the time. I reckon it's why we've fallen back on Lacazette again. We fundamentally don't believe in attacking football so someone like Ødegaard is a bit wasted unless we're playing against opponents that are much worse than us. It's easier to plug a striker into the hole and just hope that he can grab a goal every now and then even though his touch is trash and our chance creation goes down, and with it the ability to dictate the game.

Ricky1985

Clrnc wrote:
goon wrote:
Dodgy use of stats here, what exactly is xG differential supposed to tell you other than we got hammered by the big sides?

People raised it before you.

We are still firmly in mid table no matter how you look at it in terms of expected performance at both ends of the pitch.

On the other hand, we've all seent the graphic going around in the last week or so which showed that over the past 8 league games we were right at or near top in most metrics.

tazmania

It doesn't paint the right picture.
Also, you can find stats to push one way or the other. We're fifth when it comes to set pieces. We're setup like Bolton based on everything

awooga83

Yeah, a point picked up in match how set pieces were where goals came from. That is exactly how the team is built no real attacking threat hopefully nick the game with a set piece

AAStyle

goon wrote:
AFCON doesn't help our style, our style, helps us cope with the personnel losses because the games should still be tight in theory. Although one of those games being the NLD isn't ideal.

Oh nice, basically our coach is mediocre at the attacking front and therefore we create few chances. With AFCON our chances created will go from 1 per game to 0 per game, so not a big deal.

Anzac

https://arseblog.com/2021/11/arteta-numbers-shots-and-goals/

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