Premier League 20/21: Page 148 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

Premier League 20/21

Claudius

So this is how these projections work.
For the early part of the season - until at least halfway through the season, they take games played that season and games played the previous season. They then make predictions using a Monte Carlo and simulate what the table would look like based on this information. Once the season is sufficiently progressed, they drop the previous season's information and use only the current season as it is a better predictor.

I am willing to bet you £100 right now that we will not finish in the top 4. You guys need to put your money where your mouths are. The numbers favour me. Your logic favours you. Let's do it.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius wrote:
So this is how these projections work.
For the early part of the season - until at least halfway through the season, they take games played that season and games played the previous season. They then make predictions using a Monte Carlo and simulate what the table would look like based on this information. Once the season is sufficiently progressed, they drop the previous season's information and use only the current season as it is a better predictor.

I am willing to bet you £100 right now that we will not finish in the top 4. You guys need to put your money where your mouths are. The numbers favour me. Your logic favours you. Let's do it.

That isn't how math works. If I say "We probably won't make top 4, but it could happen", then I should make a bet with someone that we'll make top 4? Don't start gambling, Claude. I would've definitely made the bet with you that we would be higher than bottom six at the time of the last projection though. 🙂

Claudius

And I wouldn't have made that bet. There would've been far too much variance on this season's results for me to take it. Simple.

QuincyAbeyie

That's fine, I'm not the one saying that people should take stupid bets.

goon

Claudius wrote:
So this is how these projections work.
For the early part of the season - until at least halfway through the season, they take games played that season and games played the previous season. They then make predictions using a Monte Carlo and simulate what the table would look like based on this information. Once the season is sufficiently progressed, they drop the previous season's information and use only the current season as it is a better predictor.

I am willing to bet you £100 right now that we will not finish in the top 4. You guys need to put your money where your mouths are. The numbers favour me. Your logic favours you. Let's do it.

Question is Claud is will you offer the same odds as you're model! I believe that translates to about 60/1 so you'd owe me about £6000 😉

Claudius

Unfortunately, I don't pool risks. Take your £100 bet my friend.

QuincyAbeyie

After all Goon, if you really believe the chance of us finishing top 4 is more than 1 out of 60 you have to put your money where your mouth is and accept a 1/1 bet.

goon

Yeah, if I'm going to place £100 bet on us finishing top 4 I think I'd just go to the bookies who'd at least give me a grand in return 😆

Claudius

Go to the bookies then. Let them pool all the bets of young men who harbor top 4 fantasies. That’s their job. To create a market and profit of people’s hopes and delusions

QuincyAbeyie

They also do that for bets that we'll finish 7th, 8th etc.

Klaus

Personally I think anyone who says they're able to predict the top four this year with any degree of confidence are bluffing. When has Premier League ever been this open?

Qwiss

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
After all Goon, if you really believe the chance of us finishing top 4 is more than 1 out of 60 you have to put your money where your mouth is and accept a 1/1 bet.

I was actually going to make that bet when you said 60-1. 10-1 is the best I can see though, not worth it.

QuincyAbeyie

goon wrote:
Claudius wrote:
So this is how these projections work.
For the early part of the season - until at least halfway through the season, they take games played that season and games played the previous season. They then make predictions using a Monte Carlo and simulate what the table would look like based on this information. Once the season is sufficiently progressed, they drop the previous season's information and use only the current season as it is a better predictor.

I am willing to bet you £100 right now that we will not finish in the top 4. You guys need to put your money where your mouths are. The numbers favour me. Your logic favours you. Let's do it.

Question is Claud is will you offer the same odds as you're model! I believe that translates to about 60/1 so you'd owe me about £6000 😉

Qwiss! wrote:
Quincy Abeyie wrote:
After all Goon, if you really believe the chance of us finishing top 4 is more than 1 out of 60 you have to put your money where your mouth is and accept a 1/1 bet.

I was actually going to make that bet when you said 60-1. 10-1 is the best I can see though, not worth it.

Sorry for getting your hopes up, just a reference to Claude's projection.

Claudius

Goon is also trying to have his cake and eat it too. On the one hand he’s like “the odds are ridiculous and senseless”. On the other hand he’s like “but I want to bet and take the monies associated with said odds if I win because there is low downside to me and significant upside”. Made my day 😆

banduan

Klaus wrote:
Personally I think anyone who says they're able to predict the top four this year with any degree of confidence are bluffing. When has Premier League ever been this open?

I think we can be fairly certain Pool and Citeh will be there. It's the other two that's all up in the air.

By the way projections do have their applications, I'd imagine it's how betting odds are arrived at.

Sicario

Klaus wrote:
Personally I think anyone who says they're able to predict the top four this year with any degree of confidence are bluffing. When has Premier League ever been this open?

I would be surprised if this is not how it finishes (I’ve felt it be these teams in that order for a while not just based on current standings):

1) Man City
2) Liverpool
3) Leicester City
4) Man Utd

Dark horses are Chelsea (will be better under Tuchel) and dare I say it, us.

Klaus

banduan wrote:
By the way projections do have their applications, I'd imagine it's how betting odds are arrived at.

Naturally, but odds also change all the time, otherwise betting companies would go out of business.

Claudius

Even without changing odds, betting companies always have a margin in the odds. Notice how they never add up to 1. So the house always wins

Kel Varnsen

Southampton collapse.

Klaus

Jankewitz is even worse than Luiz. How do you get sent off in the 2nd minute? What is this, the last days of Vinnie Jones?

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