Eddie the cat: Page 5 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Eddie the cat

Klaus

QuincyAbeyie

Nothing against Nketiah, but that's such a weird record to use that way. For example if Nketiah was twice as good he'd have fewer U-21 goals because he wouldn't be with that group anymore.

Claudius

To be fair to him, there are a lot of forwards at senior team. Greenwood balled out of control this year and is probably the first young forward since Rooney who arrives with a full toolkit. England is better served giving Nketiah big game experience at youth level rather than have him rot on the England bench if he even made it.

It’s actually a pity Willock isn’t there. He will be 21 until just after the tournament.

Klaus

The fact that Shearer has that record means it's not pointless, because he probably was twice as good as Eddie at the same age. The fact he shares it with Jeffers though means it's a flawed way of looking at things in isolation.

I wasn't linking to that tweet at any rate but the one beneath, containing a link to Boothroyd's full comments, which I found much more interesting than the record.

Klaus

Claudius wrote:
Greenwood balled out of control this year and is probably the first young forward since Rooney who arrives with a full toolkit.

He's a good player and it's plain to see, but I think he's in for a bit of a rough awakening personally. His actual goalscoring compared to his xG was off the charts last season. He overachieved it with 20% per shot. He scored 17 goals while his expected turnout considering the quality of the chances was 6. I wouldn't swap him for Martinelli even if United stuck an additional £30 million into the deal.

QuincyAbeyie

Wouldn't the definition of being clinical be to outperform your xG? His finishing is excellent.

Klaus

No one outperforms their xG by that much over time. The rule of thumb is that the bigger the mismatch the more unlikely it is to stand the test of time. Harry Kane is a statistical freak, the one anomality as far as I know across several seasons, and he only outperforms his by 3 percent. If Greenwood keeps this up he'll be unprecedented in history, which means the alternative is more likely: that he's a young player who had a small sample size of shots and got a little lucky.

Klaus

Nelson at Hoffenheim springs to mind. He took like one shot per game, and it went in every time. Right up until it didn't anymore.

I'll say that I think Greenwood's general play is actually being underrated because everyone's looking solely at his goalscoring. He's a very calm and smart player for being so young.

Claudius

Klaus wrote:
No one outperforms their xG by that much over time. The rule of thumb is that the bigger the mismatch the more unlikely it is to stand the test of time. Harry Kane is a statistical freak, the one anomality as far as I know across several seasons, and he only outperforms his by 3 percent. If Greenwood keeps this up he'll be unprecedented in history, which means the alternative is more likely: that he's a young player who had a small sample size of shots and got a little lucky.

Didn’t realise he was that far off his xG. But as you said, it’s such a small sample that it’s almost meaningless. Goal scoring data only becomes useful after a few seasons. I think by England standards he will be fine. After Vardy, Kane and Sterling, there isn’t a massive pool of top forwards. He can keep up with the others.

QuincyAbeyie

Klaus wrote:
No one outperforms their xG by that much over time. The rule of thumb is that the bigger the mismatch the more unlikely it is to stand the test of time. Harry Kane is a statistical freak, the one anomality as far as I know across several seasons, and he only outperforms his by 3 percent. If Greenwood keeps this up he'll be unprecedented in history, which means the alternative is more likely: that he's a young player who had a small sample size of shots and got a little lucky.

Are you talking about Premier League only?

Messi 16/17 xG 27 G 37 (outperforming xG by 37%)
Messi 17/18 xG 29 G 34 (outperforming xG by 17 %)
Messi 18/19 xG 26 G 36 (outperforming xG by 38 %)
Messi 19/20 xG 21 G 25 (outperforming xG by 19 %)

Obviously Messi is an anomaly, just curious because of the way you worded it.

QuincyAbeyie

Klaus wrote:
No one outperforms their xG by that much over time. The rule of thumb is that the bigger the mismatch the more unlikely it is to stand the test of time. Harry Kane is a statistical freak, the one anomality as far as I know across several seasons, and he only outperforms his by 3 percent. If Greenwood keeps this up he'll be unprecedented in history, which means the alternative is more likely: that he's a young player who had a small sample size of shots and got a little lucky.

I know that's true, I just think it's a weird point to make as the same goes for every thing you can do well on the pitch. If someone scored 30 league goals one season the rule of thumb is that you won't do it next season. And the more goals you score above an average amount the more unlikely it is to be repeated. After a great season from a CB the fact is that the greater it is the harder it will be to replicate. So you could say the same thing about any player who does better than whatever is the average.

Klaus

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
Are you talking about Premier League only?

Messi 16/17 xG 27 G 37 (outperforming xG by 37%)
Messi 17/18 xG 29 G 34 (outperforming xG by 17 %)
Messi 18/19 xG 26 G 36 (outperforming xG by 38 %)
Messi 19/20 xG 21 G 25 (outperforming xG by 19 %)

Obviously Messi is an anomaly, just curious because of the way you worded it.

Non-penalty xG I think. I'm fairly sure Kane was ahead of the rest of the pack.

Quincy Abeyie wrote:
I know that's true, I just think it's a weird point to make as the same goes for every thing you can do well on the pitch. If someone scored 30 league goals one season the rule of thumb is that you won't do it next season.

That's what separate top goalscorers from the rest essentially. They all have xG that is sustainable and they all repeat it. I'd back Auba to get 30 next season too. I wouldn't back Greenwood to get 17 from the same type of chances he had this year.

Clrnc

Ray wrote:
Aarons looked pretty good.

Was thinking the same. Norwich accept a 10m + bid for Lewis. Wonder if Aarons is valued similarly

lorddulaarsenal

Both are crap

Klaus

Todd Cantwell (not Gallagher obviously, got it mixed up) was really good in the highlights from yesterday. Can't imagine he will be playing in the Championship next year.

lorddulaarsenal

Poundland Hleb? Probably go somewhere like Brighton

Klaus

Just scored a bossy goal against Austria. Pressed a defender to win the ball and then dinked it over the keeper. Arteta drooling at home in front of his youtube stream.

Klaus

Claudius

Predator's goal. That makes 7 in 3 for U21

lorddulaarsenal

Strikes me as the type of player who will unlock a physical level he didn’t know he had

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