Boris Johnson faced the country on Monday at a moment of high national danger in the coronavirus outbreak, but also knowing that he is approaching a phase of acute political peril too.
The prime minister’s mantra of doing “the right thing at the right time” to contain the virus — adopting a graded response and holding back from draconian measures for now — leaves him open to accusations he is failing to get ahead of the situation.
Mr Johnson is facing awkward questions about why he has become something of an outlier in Europe, refraining from the travel restrictions and bans on large public gatherings seen in some neighbouring countries.
“The government has made a serious mistake today,” said Rory Stewart, the former Tory cabinet minister standing as an independent in the London mayoral contest. “They should be acting much more aggressively to contain coronavirus.
“Schools should be shut now. All medium and large gatherings should be cancelled. All passengers coming from hotspots should be tested and quarantined.”
As the National Health Service announced the death of the fifth Briton with coronavirus, health secretary Matt Hancock encountered his toughest questioning yet from MPs, who are increasingly anxious the government’s “wash your hands” message will no longer suffice.
So when the prime minister convened a press conference on coronavirus, it was primarily intended to reassure the public but also designed to head off the highly damaging charge that his cautious strategy is putting lives at risk.
In the wood-panelled state dining room of Number 10, flanked by chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance, Mr Johnson said he was looking at all options for dealing with the disease but “timing is crucial”.
Mr Johnson has taken the politically risky strategy — underpinned by what he claims is the best medical and behavioural science — to avoid taking drastic measures now which he believes would be ineffective at best, counter-productive at worst.
“The risk is that if we go too early people will understandably get fatigued and we won’t be able to sustain it over time,” said Professor Whitty.
Mr Johnson’s team accept that coronavirus will soon spread widely in the UK population but argue that it is not happening yet. Behavioural scientists have cautioned against early action of the kind seen in the EU.
The prime minister believes that ordering people to stay away from work, closing schools or cancelling football matches would have little effect currently, but would leave people fed up or angry and less likely to comply in three to six weeks time, when the crisis may peak.
Asked why he was not following the Italian example of restricting people’s movement or stopping sporting events, Mr Johnson said: “It is really vital as we take these steps to protect ourselves, we do it at the right time.”
Some Number 10 insiders said that certain EU governments were bowing to political or media pressure to introduce measures which made little medical sense.
France, for example, has banned gatherings of more than 1,000 people. Ireland has cancelled the annual St Patrick’s day parade in Dublin, while Germany has urged its citizens to avoid public transport and walk or cycle to work instead.
Sir Patrick said in Monday’s press conference that he was carefully assessing which measures would be successful. “Temperature screening in airports doesn’t really have much effect,” he added. “Other measures that people look at — mass gatherings and so on — actually don’t make much difference.”
Mr Hancock told MPs that he and the government would strongly resist the closure of the House of Commons, arguing that it had a vital role to play in what could be a national emergency. “We see no purpose for suspending parliament,” he added.
For the prime minister, tackling the coronavirus crisis has come to dominate every aspect of his government’s work.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Budget on Wednesday will be judged on how it tackles the economic consequences of the disease, according to Treasury insiders. “The headlines will be about coronavirus,” admitted one of Mr Sunak’s allies.
Some big announcements — including the launch of a national infrastructure strategy — have been put on hold, partly because the country’s attention will be elsewhere.
Mr Johnson’s standing as a national leader is on the line. His halfhearted response to the recent winter floods and his failure to chair emergency ministerial meetings on coronavirus at an early stage cast a shadow over his judgment.
Last month former chancellor George Osborne urged Mr Johnson to show more urgency: “The government now needs to go on to a war footing with the coronavirus,” he tweeted.
Now Mr Johnson — dubbed “the part-time prime minister” by Labour — has some catching up to do: to convince his critics and the public that his government’s cautious response to the coronavirus outbreak is rooted in science, not political inertia.
