mdgoonah41 wrote:
i just need to rant for a minute about the transfer window and our club's transfer strategy, which is not unique to us. ive always been fascinated with how teams operate in the window, and to be completely honest, it does not make sense from a strategic or economic perspective.
- every team knows that they have a limited amount of time to seal a transfer, because the windows have open and shut dates.
- every day you wait on a transfer is another day you don't have that player at your club
- every day you don't have that player at your club is a missed opportunity to get the player acclimated, get him integrated, and have him helping the team
- we've played 5 games since our new years day game. had we signed this guy, or any other target, and registered him on january 1, he surely could have played in at least 2-3 of those games. we dropped points in 3 of those games.
- from an economics standpoint, signing a player earlier costs you more money. but what is the cost in terms of the product on the field? if we'd had an injury crisis at CB and got knocked out of the FA Cup, that reduces a potential revenue stream for the club. Those 6 dropped points in our 3 league draws might be the difference between 5th and 6th or 6th and 7th. last year, the merit payment difference was about £2m from 4th to 5th and another £2m from 5th to 6th and another £2m from 6th to 7th. the difference between finishing 5th and 7th is therefore £4m. the margins do matter.
- now, the selling club needs to also agree to sell. but starting to negotiate on January 1 is idiotic, and i doubt that any team is realistically doing that. the window is for registration, you can agree to a transfer at any point, as far as i know, but you just can't register a new player until the window opens. if we wanted this CB playing in brazil, we could have negotiated the fee with the club in november and then registered him on january 1. it might have cost us an extra £2-3m. but having him at the club earlier would have allowed him time to integrate, and then we register him on the 1st and he can hit the ground running. instead, we're still here dicking around on the 28th.
- even if the amount were, say, £5m more, what does that £5m really mean in the grand scheme of our accounts? nothing. you add it up over 20 years, and those little chunks do add up, but if you are running the club properly, maximizing other sources of revenue (commercial), you will be growing at a rate that far outpaces the small amounts you need to "overpay" to get transfers done early.
lots of teams operate like us and leave it to the end, so this isnt even a shot just at arsenal, it just does not seem rational or smart.
I think BVB did as you suggested last summer when they got their transfer business done very early.
I think thee Jan window is more about your highest priorities in terms of the current season, as opposed to building towards the future - at least that is how I think the clubs tend to think of it. I also think many delay pulling the trigger on any business as it's often a one shot deal, and the priorities can change very quickly due to injuries, whereas the summer window is far easier to identify solid targets.
In our case with restricted finances available I also think we have been unsure as to our greatest 'need', as numerically we are short of FBs more so than CBs prior to the Luiz red card and Mustafi injury. Similarly I would have also said that midfield was the greatest priority even ahead of FBs, but the recent progress made by Xhaka, Torreira and both Guendouzi and Willock probably suggests our biggest issue has been not replacing Emery with Arteta sooner so as to be able to have a clearer picture by the time the Jan window opened.
That said I don't necessarily accept the premise of restrictive finances as being a main determining factor for transfer business, particularly after we reportedly utilised a broker in the summer to be able to pay the transfer fee in full via the broker, and to then pay the broker in instalments rather than the selling club. I see nothing wrong in pursuing this line of financing - particularly when on a restricted budget, so as to avoid the scenario whereby selling clubs can try to hold buying clubs to ransom, provided the repayment schedule/s remain within the annual available budget/s.
