#kroenkeout: Page 48 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

#kroenkeout

Claudius

Qwiss obviously the dah we got Henry is best ever anything
But I think a four player haul of that quality did us is impressive. These guys are first choices on a top squad and put in big performances

Qwiss

Claudius well it's only 3 signings really. Raya was only properly signed last summer.

daredevil

QuincyAbeyie

But we aren’t Team B in your hypothetical. We’re Team C.

QuincyAbeyie

daredevil doesn't change the fact that you're saying "were not spending the most so we can't be expected to win" without considering that when the chance of a certain outcome (us winning the league) is low, the chance of that happening at least one of several seasons can still be decently high.

So, in short, that we're never expected to win doesn't mean we're expected to never win.

daredevil

Sicario2

Of course, it's about finances. That's what it's always been about. Blackburn under Warner outspent everyone to win the title. Ferguson did the same. Mourinho likewise and City obviously. Only Wenger and Klopp didn't outspend everyone in 30+ years of PL football to win it.

daredevil

Qwiss

Third and getting nowhere near the title but an FA Cup vs getting close to the title but no FA Cup?

daredevil

Claudius

The Sol Campbell window was crap.

Wright, Jeffers, Campbell, Inamoto, van Bronkhorst.

But Sol was a great signing so it made up for the 80% failure rate of that window.

Claudius

daredevil Sol was a statement. A way to deflate Spurs and signal our intent to United. He may not be the biggest player we’ve signed but the impact of the signing was huge

Mirth

daredevil But Sol was a great signing so it made up for the 80% failure rate of that window.

I suspect if you review most transfer windows, it's usually one or two transfers that have an outsized impact rather than everyone consistently being an 8/10 signing.

Coombs

QuincyAbeyie So, in short, that we're never expected to win doesn't mean we're expected to never win.

Except that is the case. I generally agree with your overall gist, but the problem is the word expectation. Just because something is possible, or even probable, does not necessarily mean it can be expected. Expectations must be aligned with what is most probable, or they are wrong.

daredevil

QuincyAbeyie

No one is saying it's impossible to win, but just look at the history of the league. How many times has a team who wasn't the highest spender won the league? Wenger's Arsenal, Leicester City and Klopp. 5 instances over a 30 year period.

The odds are not good.

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

Claudius we also beat Barcelona and Inter to his signature.

QuincyAbeyie

Coombs if Arsenal have a 30 % chance to win the league in each of three seasons in a row, the most probable outcome is that they win at least once. That's all I'm saying.

We don't know the numbers, but we can't conclude that we can't expected to win at all just because we can't be expected to win in a given season.

Coombs

QuincyAbeyie but the odds don't carry over from season to season. Like a coin toss, the odds are reset each time. While you can say that it should work out for us at some point, to expect it to would be logically fallacious. Especially because, unlike a coin toss, the initial conditions for each season are wildly different.

If the Kroenke's strategy for winning the PL is anything like hoping an infinite number of monkeys will type out a sonnet, we really can't expect much of anything.

QuincyAbeyie

Coombs that they reset every time doesn't really matter, because like you say yourself a coin toss does as well. To expect to get "heads" at least once after three attempts isn't logically fallacious.

That the odds are different from season to season doesn't really matter either. It works with varying numbers.

The part about monkeys is relevant - if our you think Kroenke's spending has been so pitiful that in the three last seasons he's not given us more than a tiny chance, it won't add up to much over several seasons either.

Coombs

QuincyAbeyie I think that the effect of not addressing key weaknesses in the squad for one window is many times more detrimental than spending well in the 2 or 3 windows before is beneficial. You are essentially leaving it up to variance, which makes it impossible to expect much of anything.

Even a 50% chance is hardly guaranteed. Seasons are entire years, and you can easily flip tails 10 times in a row. Even with coin tosses it's been proven that initial conditions matter. You need to go above and beyond, or get very, very lucky.

QuincyAbeyie

Coombs You are essentially leaving it up to variance, which makes it impossible to expect much of anything.

I'm not trying to make the argument of what we can expect, because I don't know the numbers.

I'm refuting the logic that us being the third highest spenders over a period of years must mean that we're not expected to win at all. It only means that those who spend more than us are expected to win more than us - not that we're expected to never win.

Coombs you can easily flip tails 10 times in a row.

Depends on your definition of "easily", I suppose. The chance of flipping tails 10 times in a row is about 0,1 %.

Claudius

daredevil and Wenger’s Arsenal turned into the second biggest spender. So was well positioned

Burnwinter

daredevil The odds are not good.

Fact check: the odds of either Liverpool or Arsenal winning the league this season are extremely good, and neither is the highest spending club.

daredevil

Burnwinter

Yes, this season is certainly the once in a decade or so opportunity to take the title while the top dog has fallen asleep at the wheel. The last time was Leicester, so it doesn't come around often.

Coombs

Burnwinter you don't get to check the odds midseason

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert

Just get these cunts out.

Claudius

Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert 😂😂😂

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