Claudius wrote:
Quincy Abeyie wrote:
I'm talking about ordinary time, sorry should've specified that. In ordinary time the xG was ish 3 to 1 in favor of Liverpool, and it would be incredibly silly to have a plan that, if Liverpool scored from the expected amount of their chances, would've sent Atletico out. The plan will always be to limit chances, not to give them chances and hope that they don't score. It does sound like you're underestimating Liverpool's chances as 3 is quite a big number, especially against a good team.
Quincy, this is the game that I remember seeing. The first half Liverpool had a lot of very good territory and fashioned good chances. And it's not just the chances that Oblak saved, but balls that fizzed past him as well. Atletico were under a lot of pressure. To retrospectively suggest that Atletico executed some brilliant game plan because Liverpool field to convert is just being too clever.
In extra time, however, once Firmino had scored, Atletico were the better team. I loathe Pool and their haughty fans as much as the next man, but I won't be blinded by my hate.
I think when it got to about 5 minutes before half time, you could sense a goal was coming. So I agree the pressure was building at that time and all of the crosses, corners, long rangers and Atletico clearances meant a goal would come if it continued. And of course that's just when it did.
Before that and after that it was more controlled from Atletico. I'm not sure exactly how expected goals work, but somewhere around 2, or at a push, 3 over 90 minutes sounds about right for Liverpool (but that doesn't change the fact that Atletico's defenders stopped them scoring: Trippier on Robertson when they both got to the ball and it hit the bar, for example: no doubt considered an xG but still defended as much as missed).
What xG is unable to account for is the times Atletico got in really good positions and missed the final pass or took a bad touch etc. Costa went through in the first minute and took a bad touch and so bungled the shot, or the corner that might have been going straight in until Felipe headed it narrowly wide, or the two times Joao Felix got on the edge of the box and with time and space hit tame shots straight at Adrian--one of which he managed to fumble with Correa nearly getting to the rebound, or the time Llorente was in just after he came on but Joao Felix played the through ball behind him, or the fact that whilst Saul Niguez was offside for the disallowed goal in injury time, two men were stood unmarked behind him and were onside ready to head in.
Liverpool's pressure dropped around the 70 minute mark, I said so watching, they weren't creating much but the pressure was quite high, they dropped and Atletico came into it more and got higher up the pitch: leading to a couple of the chances I mentioned, and Lodi getting up the pitch and getting a few crosses in, and the likes of Saul and Koke stationed nearer to Liverpool's box for a spell. I think Simeone made a mistake in not bringing on Morata at that point because Felix was cooked and had wasted some big moments, as mentioned. Liverpool gave it one more push for the final few minutes but were easily repelled, with Atletico in fact pushing with the disallowed goal right at the death.
Simeone looked a picture of calm at full time, even the biased British pundits afterwarda noted as much, because he knew his side had taken Liverpool's best shots and now had 30 minutes to find an away goal. Something he mentioned in his press conference after as being an unfair advanatge that he felt his side had, and he no doubt had it in mind before the game. Atletico did what they did in extra time and the rest is history.
I wouldn't want my team to play like Atletico: I think it's high risk and you are likely to come unstuck at some point if you don't have a world class attacker or two to keep the other team honest and punish them when you get the chance; but no stat or argument will convince me that Simeone and his team didn't go there and basically have the game go 90% how they planned for it to go. And the fact is, without any real standout players, he's gone to Anfield and kept Liverpool down to 2 great chances in 90 minutes and then over 120 minutes, well, during those extra 30, he little bit smashed them up, no?
