Asterix wrote:
I suspect there's a better than even chance of Trump getting back in. So the really pertinent question is will the Dems still control the House in 4 years if they can get a President in? Obama had struggles with a hostile house and senate - will it be any easier in 4 years? Just asking cause I don't know the ins and outs too much.
dems have a very good chance of keeping the house for a while, because its done by popular vote. gerrymandered districts still do play a part, but if the census is done properly in 2020, i think dems stand to gain from that.
the senate is a different (and more important) worry at this point. 2020 is a great map for democrats
competitive seats dems are defending:
doug jones (alabama) - will be their toughest race. alabama is bright red and trump is popular there, but jones is also very moderate and according to morning consult his overall approval is +6.
gary peters (michigan) - not the easiest hold for dems, but id say its slightly better than 50/50.
tina smith (minnesota) - dems always fret about minnesota, but i think they'll hold this seat fairly easily
jeanne shaheen (new hampshire) - safe seat
new mexico open seat - solidly blue state, but with the incumbent retiring, always a small risk
republicans have a much tougher slate
mcsally (arizona) - arizona is purple now, mcsally isnt super popular, and the guy she is facing is a former NASA astronaut who is very popular in the state. i think this one flips
gardner (colorado) - colorado is pretty much a blue state, gardner is a trump toady and i cant see him holding his seat. his net approval is -3 right now.
loeffler (georgia) - georgia is turning purple and if dems continue to build support in the suburbs, decent chance to flip this seat
perdue (georgia) - i dont think dems can flip both seats, especially since hes the incumbent
ernst (iowa) - shes another trump toady. iowa has gotten redder, but shes 5 points underwater right now and has a strong dem challenger
roberts (kansas) - incumbent is retiring, and kansas put in a bunch of democrats in state elections in 2018. its a wildcard
collins (maine) - shes the most unpopular senator in the country right now, and maine is a blueish state. i think shes going down
tillis (NC) - north carolina is a reddish/purple state, i think they'll probably keep this one, but it will be close
cornyn (texas) - if beto/castro had run, i think this would be in play, but there isnt a strong challenger to cornyn right now
its 53-47 now. if dems win the white house, they only need 50-50 to control the senate since the VP breaks ties.
jones is a legit possible loss for dems. but i think arizona, colorado, georgia, and maine are all very much in play, and i think at least 2 of them are going dem. i think the likely result is dems lose alabama and win arizona, colorado and maine. that would leave them 1 short, so they'll need a steal in iowa or georgia or kansas.
