6) Will Kanye run for President?

1) How many dems will contest in the primaries-over or under 16? (About 8 have declared already and one has dropped out)

12

2) Who will be the top 2(or 3 if you want, but not more than that)

Warren, Harris, Bernie

3) Who will be the ticket (you know, the one to lose to trump)

Harris

4) Will Hillary run again? (Oh yea, reports that she hasn't closed the door on it)

Thought she might but at this stage I'd have to say no.

5) Will there be a third party contestant? In other words, does the country have a centrist vote bank for Howard Schultz or John Kasich to last till the elections?

No one serious.

6) Will Kanye run for President?

Not this time. Maybe after Trump but who will Kanye be in 4-5 years? No one knows.

arsedoc md wrote:

Forum seems divided due to ozil and emery so let's try some fun exercise. I mean, the elections are almost here anyways so new thread. 

Predictions

1) How many dems will contest in the primaries-over or under 16? (About 8 have declared already and one has dropped out)

2) Who will be the top 2(or 3 if you want, but not more than that)

3) Who will be the ticket (you know, the one to lose to trump)

4) Will Hillary run again? (Oh yea, reports that she hasn't closed the door on it)

5) Will there be a third party contestant? In other words, does the country have a centrist vote bank for Howard Schultz or John Kasich to last till the elections? 

1) Under

2) Biden, Harris

3) Biden

4) No

5) Don't know.

7) Who will get Obama's endorsement?

Who knows, I'd forgotten all about Tim Kaine until right now.

Basically I think whoever's getting backing from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the new wave of progressives is going to end up as a front runner, and it's hard not to think that's Bernie Sanders at the moment. He's the reason many of them ran for office in the first place. He's also the only candidate with anything that resembles a leftist agenda by non-American standars. Being endorsed by the establishment democrats who are pro Wall Street, pro war and pro corporate is not going to be a good thing in 2020.

Agree. It will be all about who wins the left. Notice how many candidates immediately supported the idea of universal healthcare, in line with Bernie. The early discussion will be the universal healthcare folk vs those who don’t believe the idea is financially viable. And the latter will lose, simply because the electorate will deem them unambitous enough. It will essentially be a left version of Trump vs Cruz on immigration, where right wingers clung to The Wall as a vision of ambition. Even if your ideas are unimplemtable, at least you will believe in something ambitious that people can rally around.

The only other story I see is that Warren, Harris and Bernie crowd each other out, and someone like Biden gets alternative delegates.

I don’t understand why being a billionaire should automatically exclude someone like Shultz

Because we are beholden to the two party state.

I think being a billionaire should exclude anyone from ever running for anything.

Klaus wrote:

Basically I think whoever's getting backing from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the new wave of progressives is going to end up as a front runner, and it's hard not to think that's Bernie Sanders at the moment. He's the reason many of them ran for office in the first place. He's also the only candidate with anything that resembles a leftist agenda by non-American standars. Being endorsed by the establishment democrats who are pro Wall Street, pro war and pro corporate is not going to be a good thing in 2020.

That would be the best gift Trump can get. There's only one way to make sure he's re-elected, and that's to continue the Democratic party's current slip into full social justice warrior territory. The USA is so polarised it's unreal, both sides are getting more extreme by the day.

It was interesting listening to Klobacher's CNN interview. It ended up being her explaining how she would moderate the Green New Deal, with positions like we can't have free four year education for all. She was trying to ground her positions in the reality of a heavily indebted country. In the process, however, she ended up sounding like vision or ambition. The left has anchored the discussion by issuing the Green New Deal and launching a flurry of candidacies.

And this where the messaging, flooding the media, and our own heuristics are quite important. In general, the electorate that the Democratic party typically appeals to is more centrist (55%) than left leaning (45%). However, the pro-activeness of the left, the power of their message, and the inevitable agency of the media will likely drown out the centrist candidates.

It’s too early for me to do any prognosticating.
Will wait till it’s closer to the primary.
Who comes through the next few months relatively unscathed, with some character.
See if any dark horses emerge.

Gurgen wrote:

Klaus wrote:

Basically I think whoever's getting backing from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the new wave of progressives is going to end up as a front runner, and it's hard not to think that's Bernie Sanders at the moment. He's the reason many of them ran for office in the first place. He's also the only candidate with anything that resembles a leftist agenda by non-American standars. Being endorsed by the establishment democrats who are pro Wall Street, pro war and pro corporate is not going to be a good thing in 2020.

That would be the best gift Trump can get. There's only one way to make sure he's re-elected, and that's to continue the Democratic party's current slip into full social justice warrior territory. The USA is so polarised it's unreal, both sides are getting more extreme by the day.

Very extreme. It goes all the way from the conservative, Christian right to the neo-liberal right.