Trouble on the Korean Peninsula

Mirth

[size=small][font=Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]China has warned that "conflict could break out at any moment" as tension over North Korea increases.[/font][/size]

[size=small][font=Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39600426
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Anyone else starting to get a bit nervous about this getting out of hand? More importantly, are NK really going to remain a pariah for the next twenty/thirty years? Surely it's got to come to a head at some point.

arsedocmd

Appears that South Korea will bear the brunt from the NK backlash if trump and his generals who have been given a free hand come up with some pre-emptive strikes. It hasn't even been 100 days.

Coombs

Hopeful that sabre rattling is the endgame here. Another Korean war would be so devastating.

goon

Trump is waaay too impulsive for me to be calm about this and I certainly can't imagine NK being calm and rational about this either.

Rex

All this and we are, what, 80 days into Trump's presidency?

Mirth

Tbf the troubles in Korea pre-date Trump.

He's unlikely to help matters though

Rex

Trump is making it worse though.

Clrnc

Trump is starting to have China's backing on this. Xi has already stopped giving certain raw materials to NK. Doubt it will happen.

Mirth

Rex wrote:
Trump is making it worse though.

What's he done?

Rex

"The US is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior intelligence officials told NBC news."

To back that threat up, USA "has two destroyers capable of launching Tomahawk missiles in the region, one positioned only 300 miles from the test site. Heavy bombers are also positioned in Guam to attack North Korea should it necessary."

That's new policy for the US. I doubt that would go down well in North Korea...

Trump is also repeatedly antagonizing North Korea on Twitter, which has led to North Korea specifically referencing his tweets when talking about the possibility of conflict.

Gurgen

If Kim carries out more tests and the US intervene, I think China would let them. They seem done with the guy, relations are at an all time low. Whether the Chinese would ultimately let the North reunite with the South without any preconditions is another question, but that would obviously be the best outcome. It's shameful that a country like North Korea still exists.

Mirth

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39855956

A Moon Jae-in presidency would represent a real shift in attitude towards North Korea. His policy is to increase contact with North Korea, in contrast to the tighter sanctions of the last ten years. He is unhappy about the deployment of a US anti-missile system on South Korean soil.

When Mr Moon was last in government, in the early 2000s, South Korea had a "Sunshine Policy" which meant co-operation with North Korea, a policy which was abandoned as North Korea tested nuclear weapons.

As policy in South Korea looks like shifting, many sceptics remain who think that no amount of talking to Kim Jong-un will persuade him to renounce either his despotic power or his nuclear ambitions.

For the last eight years, Seoul and Washington have been in lock-step over North Korea, with ever tighter sanctions and isolation. That is not Mr Moon's way. Is it Donald Trump's?

MistaT

I've been fascinated by the US using cyber warfare and other, more material (sabotage oriented) tactics to impact North Korea's nuclear weapons.

A few good articles:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html?_r=0
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/28/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html

Program is reminiscent of Stuxnet which was a cyber security / hack used to disrupt Iran's nuclear production plants.

Bryant

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40757780

Another ICBM test.

Mirth

This is quite a good article on the subject: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/

arsedocmd

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40883372

Is Kimmy really crazy?

Burnwinter

It's pretty strategic from his point of view. His family is worth a few billion (stashed in offshore accounts) and his only real risk is assassination.

Coombs

I think that his threats are likely internal more than external. We don't know the complexities of his court, as it were, but I am sure it's a hornets' nest. If he were to be deposed, all out war with the south would surely commence. His dynasty may very well be holding the country together.

Burnwinter

You are probably right about internal threats.

I don't think it's a given that all out war would commence. The only war footing the North could sustain would be nuclear, anyway, and it's hard to imagine anyone coming to power there with a strong incentive to attempt that sort of campaign.

I think we'd just as likely pivot to a new set of actors and a new and possibly more unstable nuclear stand-off.

I feel very worried for the people of the DPRK under the circumstances.

I don't think the US has any pretext for preemptive military action against Kim Jong-Un at this point, but I'm sure there are a lot of hawkish and excitable DoD senior management with enormous budgets to justify.

Coombs

I don't have faith that anyone else in Pyongyang is any more stable than Kim, and I feel like a political tussle would see the war mongers attempt to set things off in order to secure power in the void. I'd be pretty scared of a coup in the DPRK at this point, considering the firepower at play.

I don't think a strategic analysis of genuine warmaking capabilities would drive as much as the quest for power.