UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 99 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

Asterix

Burnwinter wrote:
jones wrote:
Worse than Abbott? Know next to nothing about Morrison himself but that's hard to believe.

Different category of person. Abbott was a predictable descendant of a particular nasty strain of Australian Catholic conservatism, mentored by BA Santamaria and so on.

Morrison was an incompetent, venal, deluded multiple acolyte who never seems to have gotten properly out of the two bubbles that formed his life, his Pentecostalist church group and the Liberal party he joined as a teenager. He has a great capacity for networking, power-brokering and patronage in those settings but no other merits or even principles that I'm aware of. A power-hungry, secretive weirdo.

This. You also forgot “bully” and “fuckwit”.

jones

Thanks for the explanation. I mostly remember Abbott for the Iraq War which was predictable enough for a Western conservative but also for those bizarre interviews or the time he ate a raw unpeeled onion, that he's considered nasty but comparatively normal doesn't bode well for Morrison

Mirth

The fuck is this budget. The ghost of Cameron and Osborne have been well and truly exorcised by Boris/Sunak and now Truss/Kwarteng but the only way this is funded is by increased borrowing. The Conservative party isn't even conservative anymore.

jones

Mirth wrote:
The fuck is this budget.

😆 my exact thoughts

goon

Insane gambling on low tax economic growth in a time where the global economy is tanking and likely to stay that way for a while. Pretty clear Truss is basically an ERG puppet at this point.

Mirth

Low tax economy fuelled by borrowing rather than austerity which is new territory for any party

Burnwinter

It's amazing how badly the question of Brexit and the result of the referendum, no matter your view, has fucked UK politics.

Reckon there's a decent chance a competent government would've been in charge through the pandemic to now without it clogging the agenda.

Mirth

I mean it is and it isn't. My take is that Brexit itself hasn't really changed the country all that much on a macro-level. The damage is societal and political. And then post Covid last year everyone outside of Westminster had moved on. That ended up being a problem for the hardliners because nothing had changed and they are now promising increasingly riskier takes to fix structural issues in a 2 year window before the next election. A Conservative government borrowing this much money when interest rates are going up is bonkers.

I was going to say that the UK political circus is now on par with the Italians but - after this weekend - the Italians may find a new low too.

Coombs

Conservatism has always been a red herring. It doesn't really exist. Fiscal responsibility is not as ideological as they'd have you believe.

JazzG

High risk strategy, I'm guessing the Energy Price guarantee won't cost as much as they think as the wholesale prices are dropping big time. It is not sustainable to keep borrowing at this kind of level so need clarity on whether these lower taxes will raise more money or they'll cut back on services. Once energy markets settle borrowing should come down significantly anyway.

Also interesting that some of Rishi's supporters have come out against this today, clearly still divisions in the party which haven't healed. I do suspect that some think she won't last long so will be trying to make that happen sooner rather than later! I found it interesting how the membership really didn't take to Rishi while the MPs clearly wanted him. Membership not feeling like the MPs back their views is a problem in a lot of major political parties.

Not having OBR forecasts has spooked the markets. Then again the OBR forecasts in recent times have all been well off the mark. So while they seem to add credibility to a budget they also seem to turn out wrong! Truss might also be factoring in that Putin might Nuke us soon so all of this won't matter anyway!

Mirth wrote:
I was going to say that the UK political circus is now on par with the Italians but - after this weekend - the Italians may find a new low too.

70th election in 77 years....

Burnwinter

@[deleted] It's not that Brexit on its own had decisive macro impacts. The point is its fundamental emptiness was matched by the emotional investments of the public in its symbolism.

Brexit made it more or less impossible for Labour to win in 2019. No way to bridge the gap between the Leave and Remain contingents.

The result's been an extension of Conservative government which has already caused a lost decade economically due to its bizarre ideology, incompetence and corruption.

goon

Some Tories including that insufferable Hannan now trying to claim that the pound is crashing because the markets are terrified about Starmer coming into power and not because of the recent mini budget 😆

Genuinely insane how so many of these fringe lunatics have been given so much airtime over the last decade all in the name of 'balance'. It's allowed a minority, even within the Tory Party, to take over the country.

Burnwinter

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-156-project-fear-30-or

Tooze's latest has quite a bit of polemic about how to engage with a government that's apparently acting irrationally.

Mirth

Bank of England has had to step in and protect the government from itself. Extraordinary.

It was obvious to anyone with even a basic understanding of markets and economics that the 'mini-Budget' that was not based on reality.

Forget right v left, it was just a bunch of unproven nonsense with a government that was brand new and should have been focused on steadying steadied the ship. Of course the market reacted accordingly.

At least Boris had Sunak tempering the idealogues and would try to sell his shit. Truss and Kwarteng are the consequence of constantly purging non-believers and being left with sycophants.

jones

Why Liz Truss could stay in power longer than Margaret Thatcher

One of the headlines today in Germany's biggest commerce newspaper

The current turbulence was triggered by the announcement of the new British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng that he would provide billions in aid to cushion the high energy prices.

Public service broadcaster said this today about why the BoE had to step in. If I ever hear another German speak a single derisory word about third world propaganda they're getting violated

goon

Those are some interesting takes. I don't think even the right wing papers are trying to put a positive spin on it here.

Burnwinter

This kind of establishment revolt is what you call a capital strike …

I don't know if anyone else on here has checked the three part Al-Jazeera documentary on Labour that's just come out.

It's extremely biased, but it's also hard to answer for Labour, I think, pretty much an assembly of all the most compelling proofs that the "antisemitism crisis" was, apart from the fact that real antisemitism within UK Labour does exist, a fit-up, distortion and exaggeration for factional purposes designed to destroy Corbyn's movement and restore control to the Labour right.

There's also ample evidence of shocking racism in there, from the systematic suspension of Jewish members, to the treatment of the Muslim-majority CLP in Newham more recently.

It's all a bit of a shame, because with the Tories this godawful and Brexit in the rear view, I reckon Corbyn would've stood a chance at election!

Mirth

jones wrote:

The current turbulence was triggered by the announcement of the new British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng that he would provide billions in aid to cushion the high energy prices.

That's such junk - the Energy Support Scheme was announced 2 weeks ago and no one really raised an eyebrow.

It's Kwarteng doubling down on tax cuts and challenging the BoE that caused panic.

jones

Mirth wrote:
That's such junk - the Energy Support Scheme was announced 2 weeks ago and no one really raised an eyebrow.

It's Kwarteng doubling down on tax cuts and challenging the BoE that caused panic.

Far too lenient - it's not junk, it's unadulterated evil. They knew exactly what they were doing when they said it

Burnwinter

The response to the mini-budget shows something a bit different in a way. Normally the IMF and the US Treasury aren't kicking off like this because the story is more coherent, arranged to all parties' satisfaction.

This is the kind of derangement you get when lower rung ideological shock troops like Truss and Kwarteng get to set the agenda. They might survive this, but they'll be brought into line. The enjoyment Osborne seems to be deriving from publicly dragging them is indicative.

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