UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 96 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

jones

Names read like a list of evil Lord of the Rings warlocks

goon

Watching clips of their campaigns so far it definitely feels like a race to the bottom. Saw Penny maintaining that Turkey were imminently going to join the EU and that the UK had no veto. Kemi bleating on about snowflakes and taping over gender neutral toilets, Suella continuing to be clueless and Liz Truss securing the backing of Mogg and Dorris, as if that's a good thing.

Sunak is probably the most competent out of them and that's saying something. He won't win though.

Mirth

Meh, Sunak's is the Chancellor who has overseen most of the worsening economic landscape. Not all of it is a domestic issue, of course, but it's been mismanaged as poorly as anywhere else.

Truss will probably win - she's held one of the three 'Great Offices of State' and ultimately signed a lot of continuity trade deals that looked unlikely in 2019 that went down well amongst the grassroot support. Having Mogg's backing gives her the widest appeal - remember she actually voted for Remain in 2016 - so she can now pivot both ways.

The rest are in the running mainly to boost their profile and secure a cushy Cabinet role.

goon

Whatever her achievements (I dispute that those deals were unlikely or particularly material in the grand scheme of things and the NI situation is a real mess), I'd be surprised if they went for her. The priority in these things is always who is the most electable and she's absolutely appalling in front of a camera. Labour will be liking their lips. I don't think her close association with the current regime will go in her favour either.

Most wider conservative polls have her in around 4th or 5th. I think Mourdant will win personally. She's a good talker/competent liar, is a fresh face and seems to be polling well.

jones

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62083196

Does this stuff even register in the UK any more?

Qwiss

Of course not. They've been passing laws over the last few years to make sure people who commit such crimes can never be brought to justice. All those people will get medals and people will wear poppies to remember how heroic they were.

JazzG

jones wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62083196

Does this stuff even register in the UK any more?

I can't imagine people are too happy about it if that story is true, what kind of a reaction were you expecting?

Also probably won't get much traction in the media as we are in the middle of a leadership change so that will dominate the news.

jones

I mean genuinely does it register, like big headlines or just a small article on the backpages of the Guardian

goon

It was the headline story on the BBC news yesterday but then they were the ones who broke it. You're certainly not going to get the UK government making any noise about it nor any of the largely right wing print media.

Mirth

It's a Panorama investigation by the BBC so it's a fairly prominent. People won't be happy with the story but, to put it crudely, it's not new news. Particularly right now, the only thing that generates eyeballs is the election of a new PM, inflation and Ukraine.

Downing Street's mentioned it: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62154331

goon

Hope Liz Truss does make it, it’ll at least provide some light relief as things burn down. I’ve seen a few classic lines from her including that infamous cheese peach, but this one is new:

Mirth

[quote='Mirth' pid='1057144' dateline='1657707174]
Truss will probably win - she's held one of the three 'Great Offices of State' and ultimately signed a lot of continuity trade deals that looked unlikely in 2019 that went down well amongst the grassroot support. Having Mogg's backing gives her the widest appeal - remember she actually voted for Remain in 2016 - so she can now pivot both ways.
[/quote]

Truss looks odds on now. She’s played the Conservative base well.

On the plus side it means Tories are unlikely to win in 2 years

goon

Poor Sunsk has no chance with the Tory membership. I’d imagine if Labour could choose they’d go with Truss in a heartbeat.

Tory win is unlikely regardless, but if Starmer can’t make Truss look incompetent and sneak a majority then Labour has no hope.

JazzG

Mirth wrote:
Truss looks odds on now. She’s played the Conservative base well.

On the plus side it means Tories are unlikely to win in 2 years

I don't think Labour are even close to stopping the Tories in the next election. As long as the Tories don't bring someone in as incompetent as Boris they'll probably win again. Albeit with a much lower majority.

It is all good polling well when the other party is fucking up at every turn but we don't even know what Starmer's policies are yet and he's been leader for 2 years. You can't sit on the fence forever!

goon

I think it’s the smart play personally. Coming out early with policies has next to no benefit and just gives the Tories time to work out a plan of action. Given the turbulence we’ve had over the last few years also means it may be moot by the time the election actually comes around. In the mean time let the Tories destroy each other and shine a light on that instead.

My guess is you will see a drip of safe middle of the road policies come out over the next couple of years, bit like his plan for Brexit. They’re blatantly going for safe, middle of the road, centre left, competent image.

Mirth

If we’re being honest there’s not really much difference from Starmers positioning vs Sunak’s.

Ray

I'd be incredibly surprised if Starmer ever became PM.

JazzG

goon wrote:
I think it’s the smart play personally. Coming out early with policies has next to no benefit and just gives the Tories time to work out a plan of action. Given the turbulence we’ve had over the last few years also means it may be moot by the time the election actually comes around. In the mean time let the Tories destroy each other and shine a light on that instead.

My guess is you will see a drip of safe middle of the road policies come out over the next couple of years, bit like his plan for Brexit. They’re blatantly going for safe, middle of the road, centre left, competent image.

I don't think that will win them anything, so far he has come across as a bit of nothing politician rather than someone who is competent. He's offered no real message or clarity of how he would lead the country out of the current mess it is in. Considering how bad Boris has been a top politician would have had the next general election. Though I do sympathise with Starmer because he did inherit an absolute shit show, I did say even if he doesn't win if he can turn around Labour's image that along will be an achievement.

Ray wrote:
I'd be incredibly surprised if Starmer ever became PM.

I don't think so either, only way I could see him forming government is in some kind of coalition with Lib Dems or SNP.

Mirth

JazzG wrote:
goon wrote:
I think it’s the smart play personally. Coming out early with policies has next to no benefit and just gives the Tories time to work out a plan of action. Given the turbulence we’ve had over the last few years also means it may be moot by the time the election actually comes around. In the mean time let the Tories destroy each other and shine a light on that instead.

My guess is you will see a drip of safe middle of the road policies come out over the next couple of years, bit like his plan for Brexit. They’re blatantly going for safe, middle of the road, centre left, competent image.

I don't think that will win them anything, so far he has come across as a bit of nothing politician rather than someone who is competent. He's offered no real message or clarity of how he would lead the country out of the current mess it is in. Considering how bad Boris has been a top politician would have had the next general election. Though I do sympathise with Starmer because he did inherit an absolute shit show, I did say even if he doesn't win if he can turn around Labour's image that along will be an achievement.

Right but if the alternative is Liz Truss then I doubt she’ll offer much either. Boris was a clown for the most part but when it came to campaigning he has a very good track record whether it’s for London mayor, Brexit or for a general election. I can’t see Truss campaigning as effectively or offering thoughtful solutions to issues.

Sunak would be a much harder prospect for Labour - despite his wealth. There’s a reason all of Labour’s attacks this week have been directed to him and his policies as Chancellor than anyone else

JazzG

Mirth wrote:
Right but if the alternative is Liz Truss then I doubt she’ll offer much either. Boris was a clown for the most part but when it came to campaigning he has a very good track record whether it’s for London mayor, Brexit or for a general election. I can’t see Truss campaigning as effectively or offering thoughtful solutions to issues.

Sunak would be a much harder prospect for Labour - despite his wealth. There’s a reason all of Labour’s attacks this week have been directed to him and his policies as Chancellor than anyone else

While Boris was good at campaigning when it came to implementing policy he was hopeless and has got badly exposed. I'd say as well his majority wasn't just down to his own popularity but how deeply unpopular Corbyn was. Say if Liz Truss does become PM and if in 2.5 years time the country is in a better place and people have more money in their pockets I don't see Starmer offering anything to overturn that. Even if she is completely uncharismatic and does not inspire you the other side isn't that much better! This isn't me endorsing Truss, I think many see her as the least worse out of the remaining three!

Rishi seems deeply unpopular among Conservatives, while he is popular with MPs as usual they seem out of touch with their own constituents. Every poll has him being hammered by either Penny or Truss, I don't think long term that is a sustainable.

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