mdgoonah41 wrote:
another question: how does the conservative party still have such high support after this entire fiasco? is it really just the rural/urban divide?
Nah, this is a more complicated question - 10 years ago rural voters would sooner 'die in a ditch' than vote Conservative. Generally speaking, the core voter base for Conservatives used to be the older middle class, the extremely wealthy, homeowners and the affluent South of England. Labour would hold Scotland, most major cities and the industrial regions.
Due to the events of 3 years ago, all that got thrown out and people identify as Leave/Remain first and social issues second. It's hard to believe how quickly this happened but this is why Boris Johnson was advised to throw out 21 MPs because the next election will be framed as Brexit and little else. Meanwhile, Labour haven't really got a strategy on Brexit (although that's looking to change) so they're currently fighting for votes with Lib Dems and they've basically lost Scotland due to the SNP and their own terrible efforts. When it comes to how this translates to seats, Labour and Lib Dems split the votes in a lot of marginals and the Tories have a free run - which translates to a majority of seats.
if the brexit referendum vote was done today, what would the stay/leave split look like?
Honestly? While there's been an uptick of support for Remain, most polls over the past 3 years still place Leave/Remain as roughly a 45-45 split with 10% floating don't knows whose loyalties are fickle depending on events.
