the senate is so extremely important. dems will likely only get 2 years of control if they take it back this year, since republicans always outperform them in mid-term elections and democrats have tons of seats to defend in 2018. that said, in 2 years, they can line up the supreme court and ram through a bunch of stuff.
reminders:
- currently it is 54/44/2, but both independents caucus with the dems, so it is essentially 54/46
- the vice prez breaks the tie in a 50/50 vote, so if hillary wins the presidency, the dems just need to pick up a net of 4 seats
there are 21 seats that are considered extremely safe and probably wont flip. (12 rep/9 dem)
that leaves 13 seats truly in play, 12 of them are republican incumbents and 1 is a dem (nevada, where reid is retiring)
looking at this map, the dems need to hold nevada and clip 3 seats. grassley, vitter and mccain are probably strong bets to keep their seats. reid's seat is a tossup. but, i think dems will definitely win illinois, and i think right now they'll probably take PA and NH. i'll do my best to help defeat toomey. if they keep nevada and win IL, PA, NH and WI, they are home free. it certainly looks doable at this point.
