i started this thread back in september. when i started it, we weren't playing all that poorly but i was still worried. and my worries have now become concrete beliefs. here are my thoughts. im going to type this out more just to get it out of my head so i can go on living my life. you can read it or ignore it, no worries.
the 4-2-3-1 formation is dying, if it isn't already dead. the way the formation is meant to be played, in my opinion, is as a 4-4-1-1 when you don't have the ball, and a 4-2-4 when you have the ball. the way we choose to use it is as a 4-1-5. ramsey does not stay deep and dictate from deep, he is looking to push forward all the time. it means that we lack any way to really dictate and control the midfield. coquelin is very good at two things: breaking up play and recovering the ball. he isn't a passer, he isn't someone who can control the play. and that is fine, because his role in the team is crucial. with our fullbacks constantly pushing forward to try and give us width, he needs to stay back and protect our weak centerbacks.
if we utilized the formation properly, alexis and whoever we play at RM would track back on defense, would help build up the play and would offer outlets wide. that doesn't really happen. alexis constantly cuts inside, further crowding that area with ozil and ramsey. when campbell plays, he actually does more of the dirty work and helps to protect bellerin, but walcott is the complete opposite. he just wants to get into a position to try and score a goal. i dont even know what position welbeck plays at this point.
so here is the big issue. we currently do not have the ability to win the midfield battle on a consistent basis. why? because our formation is shit, and because we are using players in positions that do not optimize their abilities. part of the problem, despite being our biggest positive this year, is that ozil's best position, by a wide margin, is behind the striker. and to play him in that position, the rest of our formation is limited. you can either play him behind 1 striker (like we do now) or you can play him behind 2 strikers with no wingers. i actually think he could still be okay playing wide left or right, because hes that damn good, but his form in the middle has clearly been better than out wide.
so what do we do? for me we have 2 options. we can switch to something like a 4-3-2-1 and put a player similar to ozil next to him behind 1 striker. this would mean no alexis. thats knee jerk after the season alexis had last year, right? sure. i think if we play 2 attacking midfielders, we may actually be better off. think of a setup like this:
ramsey - coquelin - pogba
ozil - james
new striker
obviously we're not getting pogba and hamez, but imagine two workhorse CMs who will move box to box, with coquelin sitting deep. those two CMs should be competent, all around players. pairing ozil with a player like james would allow us maximum creativity and interchanging abilities and having them feed a prolific central striker. by having 3 central midfielders, you offer more defensive protection to your team, and you also allow the team to maintain more possession because there are more options in the center of the pitch. i would not use a player like cazorla in a formation like that as part of the 3, because i think you need 3 midfielders with stamina and the ability to run all day. i also think he lacks the end product needed to play as one of the 2 behind the striker.
the second option, which might be less ideal, is to play something like a 4-1-2-3 formation. coquelin as the 1, ramsey + pogba (not really pogba, someone like him) as the 2, and then use a traditional LW/RW/ST up front. again, having 3 central midfielders who are closer together should allow for more control and possession and stringing together a few passes. the downside here is you have to play ozil wide, which does not suit him. you also need actual wingers who aren't afraid to stay wide and get to the byline.
at the end of the day, though, the formation only takes you so far. i think what we've seen recently is that if you have a solid system, good organization, a good leader, and a good tactical manager, you can accomplish more with less. from 1-11, our side is more talented than tottenscum, but they've outperformed us for most of the season because they are better drilled. i mean, look at leicester. 1-11, our squad is superior to theirs as a whole, but they are well drilled, they play to their strengths, and they appear to have a plan.
its time to stop letting mediocre players play like they are peak zidane/pirlo/messi caliber talents. its time to develop a gameplan, an identity in the team, and to find the appropriate players for the formation we use instead of relying on square pegs in round holes. unfortunately, wenger is clearly not the person to implement any of these plans.
