Mario Balotelli: Page 41 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

Mario Balotelli

dreamlord

Balotelli will be a nobody in a couple of years from now.

Burnwinter

Hmm, let's see. Suarez is worth £70m to Barcelona apparently, and according to that chart he's on a par with Balotelli converting chances.

So I'd suggest if Balotelli is available, we sign him from Milan for the reported £25m and then sell him on to Barcelona for £60m, undercutting Liverpool.

We can then use £15m of the £35m profit to sign Cavani from PSG—he should be on the market for about that given, according to the chart, he's only about as good as Olivier Giroud.

And snap! We've brought in Edinson Cavani and made a £20m profit. I thought these transfer deals were supposed to be hard?

DiabyKungFu

Burnwinter™ wrote:
Hmm, let's see. Suarez is worth £70m to Barcelona apparently, and according to that chart he's on a par with Balotelli converting chances.

So I'd suggest if Balotelli is available, we sign him from Milan for the reported £25m and then sell him on to Barcelona for £60m, undercutting Liverpool.

We can then use £15m of the £35m profit to sign Cavani from PSG—he should be on the market for about that given, according to the chart, he's only about as good as Olivier Giroud.

And snap! We've brought in Edinson Cavani and made a £20m profit. I thought these transfer deals were supposed to be hard?

You read the chart wrong. The second column is the goal equity per shot that can be expected based on the shots they take. The third column is the difference between that theoretical goal equity value and the goals per shot value that they actually realize. So, for example, the opportunities that Cavani and Giroud get on the end of are just about equally as good but Cavani produces .04 more goals per shot than Giroud.

Burnwinter

Aw, fuck. You're right! Sorry.

But "ESPN/TruMedia has a model for estimating the chances of a player making each shot he takes based on type and location (this metric is known as expected goals)" sounds flaky.

For instance, it doesn't sound like their model considers whether the player's attributes fit the type of service he gets.

When you reckon further with the different leagues, appearance rates, and clubs in the mix (three different clubs for Balotelli) I'm not sure it can be considered definitive. Especially considering pretty much any metric based on goals is going to bring Messi and Cristiano out on top.

evoh

The expected bit is too do with the angle and distance from goal. I doesn't take into account defenders, but does at least correct for the fact that a shot from 10 yards in front is generally better than one 30 yards out.

kamikaze

it's obviously a crude metric, but it's better than just looking at shots on goal. not sure it's any better than just watching the guy play, though. football just doesnt lend itself to quantitative analysis the way baseball does.

Burnwinter

As I interpret it, if you've got a technically raw pace merchant in a side that plays strong, advanced possession football, or a slow-ish big man in a side that's set up for the counter, that metric doesn't take into account that the two players aren't in a tactical environment that suits their strengths.

At least it takes into account when you've got a potentially prolific player in a side that doesn't create decent chances though.

kamikaze

it's pretty simple - it literally takes nothing into account other than where the shot is taken. that's very little info, but it's better than shots on goal, which takes into account even less info.

GooneriC

Tuttosport claims he could be available for just £14 million.

Meatwad

kamikaze wrote:
it's obviously a crude metric, but it's better than just looking at shots on goal. not sure it's any better than just watching the guy play, though. football just doesnt lend itself to quantitative analysis the way baseball does.

it lends itself enough though or else arsenal wouldn't have spent millions to buy a data company. although proprietary data is more likely advanced than what we're seeing for free.

http://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2014/07/10/germanys-12th-man-at-the-world-cup-big-data/

Coombs

Claims that they're trying to flog him for 14m...

http://metro.co.uk/2014/07/15/liverpool-transfer-boost-as-ac-milan-put-mario-balotelli-up-for-sale-for-just-14m-4798830/

Gunner89

Ok firstly a Metro link is houseboat and secondly any links to Liverpool go to the "Other clubs" thread. Additionally if you want to make posts about wanting him at Arsenal than there is the "Wish-list" thread for that. A frank refusal by Wenger as regards interest in Balotelli and also stating that he sees Sanchez having all the attributes to being a modern forward suggests to me strongly that there is absolutely nothing to these links beyond paper talk.

goon

You really don't want Balotelli do you? 😆

Coombs

Gunner89 wrote:
Ok firstly a Metro link is houseboat and secondly any links to Liverpool go to the "Other clubs" thread. Additionally if you want to make posts about wanting him at Arsenal than there is the "Wish-list" thread for that. A frank refusal by Wenger as regards interest in Balotelli and also stating that he sees Sanchez having all the attributes to being a modern forward suggests to me strongly that there is absolutely nothing to these links beyond paper talk.

😐

EDIT: I admit you're probably completely correct in regards to your last sentence.

Jed

Actually maybe we should go for him. Little Jack could do with a smoking mate...

Rex

We should go for him anyway. He is a class player and much better than Giroud. That is all in my opinion, based subjectively on what I see with my own eyes, and I don't need to hear about his conversion rate 'if you take away the penalties'.

Qwiss

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!

Klaus

Gunner89 wrote:
Ok firstly a Metro link is houseboat and secondly any links to Liverpool go to the "Other clubs" thread. Additionally if you want to make posts about wanting him at Arsenal than there is the "Wish-list" thread for that. A frank refusal by Wenger as regards interest in Balotelli and also stating that he sees Sanchez having all the attributes to being a modern forward suggests to me strongly that there is absolutely nothing to these links beyond paper talk.

MistaT

qs! wrote:
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!

Facts, schmacts

Gazza M

http://www.fanatix.com/news/mario-balotelli-poses-for-picture-by-arsenal-badge-heightens-rumours-of-imminent-transfer-back-to-the-premier-league/292043/

fanny

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