I don't necessarily buy that argument as it is so one sided. It's easy to say that if they are good enough they will make it because there is no established way of disproving that those who didn't make weren't good enough in the first place. I reckon there are a lot of factors other than pure talent that heavily influence a player's career. Talent obviously is a big determining factor, but not the decisive one IMO. The situation that players, particularly young ones, find themselves in goes a long way to defining their career.
Just a few examples:
- Opportunities in the first team
Someone like David Bentley felt forced to leave to get a playing opportunity because he had a whole host of great players in front of him in the same position who weren't going to leave any time soon. He certainly had talent and a good repuation coming through the ranks, but there was no way for him to play in our first team, particularly when we were still a major force domestically. Conversely, Clichy had only Ashley Cole ahead of him at LB. Cole's early departure allowed Clichy an even earlier opportunity to stake a claim. Our lack of funds at the time meant we didn't replace quality with quality in the transfer market. Bentley grew up playing a certain way due to our system which would not necessarily be employed at other PL clubs. Very few of even our first team players who have left the club have managed to perform as well elsewhere. If they struggle, how difficult must it be for younger players. Would Alex Song have reached this level without playing at Arsenal for several seasons? These are hypothetical, but reflect that timing of a breakthrough is important? I'm sure had Bentley been younger, he would have got more opprotunities when Wenger implemented his "project" regeneration of the first team.
- Demands of the first team
A team playing for the biggest prizes or other equally important goals is unlikely to grant too many chances to non-experienced players. We were able to use the increased resources and reputational pull of the Champions League alongside the fading powers of some great players to keep challengers to the 4th spot at bay while blooding so many youngsters. The very real threat to our place this season meant we went back to experience. The situation will be similarly true for those with resources who have specific targets which may be in jeopardy, be it trophies, european qualification or avoiding relegation. When there are no resources, blooding youngsters is not so much of a risk.
- Playing in a winning team or playing in a losing team
The opportunity may be there, but if the rest of the team is not good enough or is going through a difficult patch, it can be very hard for a young player to come out of it positively. A winning team will breed confidence, a losing one can affect form negatively.
- Change of manager and playing philosophy
We talk already of the possible impact Mourinho could have on our youth set-up.
- Competing against new signings.
Whenever money is spent on new players, the emphasis is more likely to shift towards those players at the expense of exiting ones as managers need to justify their decisions. Even if a new player has not been performing well, a young player may still not get a chance as the other will be given time to try an justify his signing.
There are lots of other potential reasons as well, but coming back to Gnabry, I believe he has real talent, but am more inclined to say he will not make it here because of how our options shape up presently. He has 2-3 very young WFs ahead of him in the first team and there is no guarantee that Wenger will be in charge beyond 2014 when ordinarily Gnabry should be close to breaking into the first team. Despite his talent, he will need a lot of luck.
