The Run-In - the last 8 games - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

The Run-In - the last 8 games

tazmania

Let's not get too excited and curse ourselves. They're in for the quad still too. Their route there is harder but they're still in the same position as us except 4-7 points behind in the league.

Sicario2

tazmania no one is jinxing anything but all these subplots makes a difference and fuck city. We finished 1st in CL and deserve a good draw. City lucky they didn’t play round of 32.

samthegooner

The FA Cup draw has certainly gone in our favor compared to City. They now are going to have the following fixtures over a period of just over a month:
3/17: UCL R16 Madrid HOME
3/22: Arsenal League Cup Final
4/4 or 4/5: Liverpool FA Cup HOME
4/7 or 4/8: UCL QF Bayern/Atalanta (if qualified)
4/12: Chelsea AWAY
4/14 or 4/15: UCL QF Bayern/Atalanta (if qualified)
4/19: Arsenal HOME

That's a brutal stretch. I have been running some numbers in a Google Sheet just to keep track of potential outcomes in the league and with 9 matches left, we control our own destiny again even if we lose the match to City. Even if they win out, we could still either lose or draw one match and win the title. If City draws a match (finishing 8-1-0), that would open up to Arsenal being able to draw up to 3 matches or draw one match and lose one match. If they lost a match, we could afford to lose up to 2 matches or draw 2 and lose 1. Things start to really open up if City were to draw just two matches (7-2-0) as we could win 4 and draw 4 and still win or even go 5-1-2 and win. Anything less than 7 wins over the last 9 City EPL matches, and we have a LOT of wiggle room.

Clearly we are one bad performance against Everton from this completely inverting along with our confidence but I will really like our chances to end up on top if we can go to the Etihad with 6 points from the Everton and Bournemouth matches, especially knowing the potentially SEVEN huge games in a row that City are going to need to play if they continue playing well and advancing in the Champs League.

Irishgunner

We have more home games which helps - but really it all comes down to the city game, which unfortunately is away

If we lose that I can see heads dropping with city closing the gap

Sicario2

Irishgunner it depends how many points they are behind us before that game. I guess you have to add 3 points assuming they beat Palace.

Claudius

we've received better draws than City in Champions League and FA Cup. Hopefully that helps.

banduan

Citeh always knew they had a worse fixture list towards the end, so it's on them not getting the job done earlier.
That FA Cup draw isn't necessarily so rigged in our favour. St Mary's has not been a happy place for us too often.

Sicario2

banduan true but the draw could have been a lot more difficult. To put it in perspective we avoid the following fixtures : City away, Liverpool away, Chelsea away, West Ham away, Leeds away. Any non-prem team in the quarter finals is a good draw.

banduan

Arsenal Run in
Everton (H) W
Bournemouth (H)
Citeh (A)
Newcastle (H)
Fulham (H)
Hammers (A)
Burnley (H)
Palace (A)

Citeh Run In
Hammers (A) D
Chavs (A)
Arsenal (H)
Burnley (A)
Everton (A)
Brentford (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Villa (H)
Palace (H) - postponed match to be rescheduled

We're now 9 ahead, Citeh have 24 points to win and can only reach 85 points at most. We now just need 16 points to seal the league.

GooneriC

We have a much harder run in. Bournemouth Fulham and Newcastle always give us a hard time. And the hammers and Burnley will be fighting for their lives. No easy games , we must not be complacent

Big Willie

GooneriC We have a much harder run in. Bournemouth Fulham and Newcastle always give us a hard time. And the hammers and Burnley will be fighting for their lives. No easy games , we must not be complacent

We both have to play Burnley and Bournemouth but whilst we are at home, City are away to both. We may have Newcastle and West Ham but City still have to play Chelsea away, as well as Brentford and Villa at home remaining. Don't think our run in is any harder than City's. At worst maybe similar but the number of away games they have left and the points difference makes it well in our favour.

Mirth

GooneriC all depends on how we do against City actually. Get any kind of positive result and we're home free. The Burnley game won't even matter

Sicario2

GooneriC those are good games. We don’t play a big 6 side apart from Man City. Burnley at home second last game of the season you couldn’t ask for a better game.

The only issue is Newcastle because that could be played mid-week if we progress to the FA cup semi final and Newcastle would have a rested weekend.

Bournemouth wouldn’t have played in 3 weeks when they face us whilst we have two games post international break before we face them.

IBL

Ideal scenario is we win our next game and Chavs find some form to beat City. We then go to City and go all out for the win, which would give us a 15 point lead and effectively the title with only 5 games remaining.

Qwiss

IBL if that happens and we have it wrapped up before the last day it's fair to say we owe WHU one.

daredevil

IBL

Why would we go all out in that scenario when we would have more to lose?

That’s the type of strategy a team who has nothing to lose would employ.

CPM

Playing Chelsea away when they are in 6th and absolutely desperate to get in the CL places is a brutal match. We don't have anything comparable to that. City would do really well to win there.

Qwiss

CPM they've Everton away too which we know is tough. Bournemouth and Brentford are tricky too.

Claudius

We don’t play league for another month. Time to focus on cups

Lukazan

Can't say I agree our run in is harder than City's. They've got Chelsea away next week which I think will be alot tougher for them due to not winning tonight and then Everton away. Brentford won't be a foregone I don't think. Bournemouth more than capable of an upset too. I actually think we'll turn Newcastle over convincingly at home this time round and when you take that game out of the equation, Man City itself aside (although if they haven't closed the gap before then I'm not fearing that one too much either) I'm not overly concerned about the rest tbh.