Yeah, so I spend a lot of time looking at football data. Basically what you will see is there are few exceptional players like Mbappe, Kane, Haaland, Dembele who tend to score more than the average player would in the same circumstances.
However, creating more shots tends to win out more than trying to find high xG outperformance players for a few reasons
1) xG outperformance almost always regresses to the mean. Most players who massively perform xG in one season, will regress to statistical average in the next season. A good example of Harry Wilson had high xG outperformance last year becuase he hit some long range beauties. That is highly unlikely to repeat this year.
2) A team that consistently delivers high xG as a group minimizes the impact of bad luck. I.e., if you always create 3.0 xG as a team, that minimizes impact that one spectucular Donnarumma save will set you back. If you create two high value chances (0.4xG) and depend on a player to finish both of them, then on a bad day your Mbappe will miss both chances
3) Volume is jus eaiser to control and repeat. It gives you a statistical floor
What does this mean, find ways to get players to generate high xG - i.e., more shots and shots in better locations. That is more sustainable than fishing for finishers. Once you have that high floor, definitely valuable to have players who create different problems for defenders
There are like 10 players with that nose who are markedly better than everyone else, guys like Mbappe, Kane, Haaland, Dembele etc. I don't see a big spread amongst the other players when I watch. What is helpful is making sure that people are actually in a position to score. Giving Odegaard, a player not known for scoring, the ball six yards from goal really improves his chances of getting a goal. Put people in positions more often and that is probably a better lever for scoring than looking for rare exceptional finishers.
