2024 US Election: Page 36 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

2024 US Election

Claudius

USArsenal they’ll vote for abortion and for Trump.

MistaT

USArsenal -- some 35% at best.
https://www.prri.org/spotlight/suburban-women-and-abortion-politics-ahead-of-the-2024-presidential-election/

Gazza M

USArsenal yeah there will still be a sizeable chunk, but it depends if democrats have eaten into it in any substantial way.

Sicario2

For selfish reasons need Trump to win for my Bitcoin.

MistaT

“ Significant piece of data coming from early exit polling. Trump is up by 11 points with independents in Georgia, according to the initial exits. Biden won independent voters by 9 points in Georgia. That's a big swing.”

That would be a wild swing if it held, and I would imagine doom Harris in Georgia

Clrnc

Georgia looks done for Harris. 74% in and she's losing significantly

54% in and NC looks effed too

Claudius

Clrnc that she’s not even competitive in a lot of the red swing states is not a good sign. Go back to bed everyone. There’s nothing to see here.

Gazza M

things trending badly for harris so far. NC called already, GA probably being called soon. no real surprises in him winning those, but it's definitely going to be a squeaker that comes down to the blue wall.

Clrnc

Gazza M Harris is losing big time here. Is there anyway for her to win or its done?

Most of the swing states that's not called shes behind as well

Gazza M

Clrnc yep. so far everything has been following polling which had trump favoured in NC and GA. if she holds her polling number and wins PA, MI, WI and NV then she narrowly wins the election. no doubt there will be an absolute legal shit fight for 2 months if it finishes that close though

as Claudius said though, the bull case for her was that she'd eat into his margins in rural areas, but the opposite has happened so far. that's a bit of a warning sign for the rust belt where the big cities have to come in super strong for her to block his path there. WI is a concern on that front

Clrnc

Gazza M i was a bit shocked she lost the Hispanic votes in Florida as well. Biden and Clinton won those by a huge margin previously. It's really not looking good but I have no idea why America wants Trump again.

At least Selzer poll for Iowa is quite accurate currently

MistaT

Clrnc -- seems Trump is doing well among Latinos across a number of states.

One of the most misunderstood groups, and I'm not surprised by their votes staying with Trump.

Gazza M

Clrnc looks like it will be the first big miss by selzer. if ever someone was going to confound her polls it would be trump, who's unlike any other candidate and seemingly impossible to poll

could be as simple as reticence to get in the booth and vote for a woman. or simply trump sold himself as the change candidate better. if people are completely sick of status quo then he's your guy. I didn't like her neo-con outreach either, that never seemed like the best strategy

Clrnc

She's losing PA and WI now. This looks like an outright thrashing and one of the worst loss for Democrats ever

Bryant

Gazza M

Yeah, Harris using Liz Cheney of all people to try to win the conservative vote, lol yeah who would want to trust the daughter of one of the most pro war hawks and most unpopular politicians out there.

Curious to see what happens with the house. I live in one of the tightest races and got spammed with constant youtube ads. The one time my vote mattered, hope the seat flips blue.

Asterix

It really isn't looking good. There are very, very many stupid people in the world.

Gazza M

Bryant sent Liz Cheney to campaign in Michigan. lol.

Asterix

Looks like the old orange man needs only 40 more electoral college votes. He's ahead in all of Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He's likely going to win all 4 which puts him comfortably over at 290.

Gazza M

total collapse in the arab vote in Michigan for harris. 36 point swing to trump. they sent a strong message to democrats there, but trump is a bibi nut hugger so things won't get much better for them in that front

she's running out of votes to get now. metro and suburban areas in the swing states have to be massively in her favour, and judging by the underperformance across all the demographics thus far, it's starting to look like a longshot.

we're at the point where even if she squeaks a narrow win, it's a phyrric victory. this is not a widespread rejection of MAGA at all. the sentiment in the country is still extremely divided

jones

Gazza M loads of Arabs in the US are rednecks and/or Christians who actively hate their bredrin back home. Must be the corrupting influence of the US because anywhere else Christian Arabs stand united with Palestine just like any other Arab

If I tried looking for a silver lining I'd say while Trump hangs of Netanyahu's dick there's a chance they fall out because of American domestic issues or any other reason as Trump is clearly unhinged. With Harris you know it's 100% backing for Israel. She couldn't even in theory discuss Israeli war crimes for longer than ten seconds before pivoting to grocery prices ffs

Burnwinter

Sorry about this US folks. The poll surprises coming in maybe aren't really huge surprises ... it's consistently felt like nobody commenting has had enough of a handle on reality to clearly predict the outcomes.

A second Trump administration, if that's what happens now, will be very damaging for the United States domestically. Seems almost farcical. The Democrats are still on the same trip they were on in 2015.

Gazza M

Burnwinter I can't even begin to imagine. well I can, but still. its very grim. feels like the oligarchy is making the final push to strip the public purse and weaken democracy. it's been trending that way for decades, what with corporate interests swallowing up both parties, but this feels like the start of the next phase of that trend.

alot can be said about the right wing colonising the online spaces, and democrats being a step behind embracing that. elon buying twitter and turning it into a misinformation factory will be looked at as pretty significant.

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