2024 US Election: Page 36 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

2024 US Election

Gazza M

everyone had Hillary at 90%+, and he had her at 65% and was roundly mocked for it. and he doesn't pander to any one audience. his sponsor is polymarket, which is thiel funded. he's been alot more MAGA friendly since 2020, including pushing the 'red wave' narrative in 2022 midterms which turned out totally wrong. I still think he's been clueless this cycle because of all the junk polls he puts into his model, which had trump as the favourite up until the last few days

Qwiss

Seems to me all his polling is nonsense. These "models" are bollox and just content for people. There is no real science to them. Polling companies are dodgy enough themselves but his grift is even more dubious. Being Thiel funded just removes even more credibility IMO.

Claudius

Qwiss he isn’t polling.
He’s taking the most trustworthy polls and then using those to estimate probabilities for the different candidates. His modeling ability is an input, but poll quality is also clearly important. We know all the historic issues about hard to reach segments, and then also shy voters (those too embarrassed to admit they’re voting a crazy molester). Now there’s a new issue. Republicans are sponsoring tons of favourable polls which are skewing many races. So it’s getting even harder to select the shortlist of polls to model around

Clrnc

Claudius Why would they do that though? If they show everyone they are winning the state, wouldn't swing voter be more inclined to vote the other way to balance the poll?

USArsenal

Clrnc

Or a swing voter could decide to stay home and not vote since 'eh, X or Y candidate is going to win anyway, why bother'.

Polls are bullshit. It doesnt matter if Thiel is taking the most trustworthy polls, all polls are bullshit to begin with. People will say or tell whatever they want, but when they're alone in the booth, they will vote for whoever they want to vote for. And early polling is always skewed to one candidate or another based on who is sponsoring it. Believe me, i used to work for a company that did the Harris Polls.. (no pun intended).

Meatwad

Clrnc
no. they're more likely to go to the side they think is winning. any undecided voters at that stage of the game is just some sheep looking for a shepherd.

but mainly it's about helping to shape a narrative about them stealing the election from him. see even all the polls said i was suppose to win.

Gazza M

Clrnc they can also be used as propaganda to depress turnout if it looks one candidate is more likely to win. one thing that's clear is that 2024 polling has been more useless than ever. wrong in 2016 in terms of the winner, wrong in 2020 in terms of margin, and now just calling it 50-50 so they don't get burned again

Meatwad

this loser isn't even confident his own wife will vote for his side.

Gazza M

not the kind of news trumpers want to see

USArsenal

Gazza M

You may be wrong about that. I know plenty of suburban women who will vote for Trump.

jones

Qwiss Silver is a greasy dickhead who'd sell his own mum just look at the guy ffs.

no idea how people can get so invested in this clown show. Read earlier in a local newspaper they're doing election parties here in the city ffs.

Claudius

USArsenal they’ll vote for abortion and for Trump.

MistaT

USArsenal -- some 35% at best.
https://www.prri.org/spotlight/suburban-women-and-abortion-politics-ahead-of-the-2024-presidential-election/

Gazza M

USArsenal yeah there will still be a sizeable chunk, but it depends if democrats have eaten into it in any substantial way.

Sicario2

For selfish reasons need Trump to win for my Bitcoin.

MistaT

“ Significant piece of data coming from early exit polling. Trump is up by 11 points with independents in Georgia, according to the initial exits. Biden won independent voters by 9 points in Georgia. That's a big swing.”

That would be a wild swing if it held, and I would imagine doom Harris in Georgia

Clrnc

Georgia looks done for Harris. 74% in and she's losing significantly

54% in and NC looks effed too

Claudius

Clrnc that she’s not even competitive in a lot of the red swing states is not a good sign. Go back to bed everyone. There’s nothing to see here.

Gazza M

things trending badly for harris so far. NC called already, GA probably being called soon. no real surprises in him winning those, but it's definitely going to be a squeaker that comes down to the blue wall.

Clrnc

Gazza M Harris is losing big time here. Is there anyway for her to win or its done?

Most of the swing states that's not called shes behind as well

Gazza M

Clrnc yep. so far everything has been following polling which had trump favoured in NC and GA. if she holds her polling number and wins PA, MI, WI and NV then she narrowly wins the election. no doubt there will be an absolute legal shit fight for 2 months if it finishes that close though

as Claudius said though, the bull case for her was that she'd eat into his margins in rural areas, but the opposite has happened so far. that's a bit of a warning sign for the rust belt where the big cities have to come in super strong for her to block his path there. WI is a concern on that front

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