2024 US Election: Page 52 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

2024 US Election

Qwiss

JazzG Yup exactly what he is doing. Rightly or wrongly he thinks the 'deep state' got him last time, he's come back more focussed and intends to tear it down.

didn't the FBI know Jan 7 was about to happen and allowed it anyway? Those right wing groups like the proud boys are absolutely riddled with informants, even their leader was one.

JazzG

Qwiss There is a rabbit hole you can go down when it comes to that day. Talk of FBI informants being involved that day and egging people on. Fuck knows what is true but new FBI director Kash Patel has talked about it and if there is any agency involvement I think they'll release this. If for nothing else so he can attempt to justify all the pardons he has dished out.

awooga83

Qwiss I'm not sure these things are credible, there can be crap organisations, poor collaboration and Comms but it's usually down to incompetence rather then some big plan. Conspiracy theories appeal to people because they allow you to hide from the reality which is that horrible things can happen totally randomly. It's nice to think there's age individuals controlling everything and if you could stop them the world would be perfect but it's a total fantasy.

Qwiss

awooga83 intelligence agencies are secretive by their nature. I think that realising they are keeping things from the public is quite the opposite of hiding from reality.

awooga83

Qwiss no absolutely but the reality being it won't be some big bad guy. It'll be based around whatever national security guidelines they felt appropriate that led to keeping the info out of the public domain.. But there isn't likely to be anything different to what it's already known. Just as I said you might see how incompetent governments can be, which we probably don't need these files to tell you that.

Qwiss

awooga83 who said anything about a "big bad guy"?

awooga83 But there isn't likely to be anything different to what it's already known.

What's known or what's speculated?

awooga83

Qwiss as in the public account of the assassination,I don't think any information is going to change from that. If you mean January 6th again I can believe in intelligence failures, poor organisational collaboration not having a collaborative assessment process etc. I do not believe that knew everything that was going to happen and let it happen. Mistakes, poor decisions, incompetence absolutely some big scheme meeting it happen very unlikely in my opinion.

Qwiss

awooga83 like I said I believe there will be a drip drip on acceptable info given about JFK and MLK. We've seen that in the 70's with the House Select Committee on Assassinations, we seen it again in the 90's when they declassified some more on JFK after Stone's movie got people excited and we'll probably get another few bits now. If this stuff is ever truly declassified it'll probably be once everyone involved is dead.

Kel Varnsen

JazzG

Most is in funds, but some in tech. I wonder how the american tech companies will react to deepseek. Messing around with it a little bit, and it seems better than chatgpt and as good as claude.

JazzG

Kel Varnsen Yes I was read about that briefly yesterday, think it has sent a bit of a shock in the AI sector in America. It seems to perform remarkably well, some saying works a little too well. considering it is some small start up company and have put out a product which matches ChatGPT o1 regular and at 1/50th of the cost. I believe o1 Pro Mode is still superior but it is a lot more expensive. Will need to read more deeply into it but does look a very interesting product.

Also seen Musk is doubting whether OpenAI have the money they are claiming for Project Stargate. I think him and Sam Altman have some serious beef!

The moral of this story is don't take investment advice from me!

JazzG

Kel Varnsen

Stock market is spooked, a lot of overvalued products are about to come crashing back to earth!

The Chinese putting this out for free on top, kind of ironic that one of the few times China actually practises communism they might burst the entire US AI bubble 😆

[edit]

Another interesting thread here on how they've achieved this.

flobaba

Time to move on from the holocaust fellas. I love how Musk isn’t even subtle.

JazzG

I think this election has knocked the stuffing out of the Democrats, their old lines don't work and they look leaderless and directionless at the moment. Whether you agree with his policies or not Trump has hit the ground running and his administration currently looks locked in and focussed. Remains to be seen if they can keep it up though.

Claudius

JazzG https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/trump-policy-blitz.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

awooga83

Claudius yeah my thought they have always said this is their tactic just shove out so much stuff it's hard to focus on any one thing.

Kel Varnsen

Damn it. Markets reacting to Trump's promises of tariffs.. I understand how large trade deficits are problematic for home manufacturing and budget deficit (and even currency devaluations and national security), but these blanket tariffs on Mexico and Canada seem stupid. Tariffs should be much more targeted.

We'll see what happens. The 2018 tariffs weren't really inflationary as most of the costs were absorbed by importers, but these tariffs are broader..

Claudius

Kel Varnsen he’s bringing real estate negotiating to economics. Should be great.

JazzG

Kel Varnsen I am not entirely convinced he actually believes in these tariffs but he is going to use them to leverage/bully countries into give him what he wants. Like his threat of leaving NATO last time and suddenly all these European countries who had been taking the piss got a sudden wake up call. However these things can backfire if you overplay your hand.

Mirth

JazzG the whole premise is based on an assumption that trade deficits are bad. An entry level economic course would tell you that isn’t necessarily the case - certainly not when you’re the United States.

Gazza M

where do you go from here though? you do the nuclear option straight away, and there's nowhere really left to move other than doubling and tripling down when people call your bluff. tariffing the shit out of anyone that doesn't do what you say for 4 years seems predictable and short-sighted, but I wouldn't expect anything less from someone with as many bankruptcies as him

Burnwinter

Gazza M Unpredictable and untrustable behaviour along with brinkmanship will do huge damage to all international relationships to which the United States isn't entirely indispensable.

People aren't gonna look at Trump ordering the US out of the WHO and think "Oh wow, there's a great country that we definitely want to structure our multilateral diplomacy around". In short, this kinda nonsense seems guaranteed to hasten the rise of a multipolar world in which China-centric arrangements are frequently preferable to US-centric ones.

I'd be surprised if there weren't a few more serious candidates for de-dollarisation before 2028.

Claudius

It’s lunacy. I think I US exports 2x as much to Mexico as it does to china. combination of finished and unfinished goods. Mexico has decent leverage here. Prices up. Poor people with low elasticities hit the hardest.

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