Watch the key moments from this game and 99% of them are game scenarios with 5-8 Brentford outfield players packed into their own box. I'd say the same for most game moments from 3/4ths of the opponents we've faced this season, and pretty much an opposition adjustment that for me has spread rapidly since Late Winter/Spring '23. Crossing and switching possession (horseshoe) are extremely logical approaches to combat that. A glut of corners is an unsurprising byproduct of that. Very much agree that we should still strive to i) play more progressive when we can before the opponent fully settles into shape, ii) to test subtle variations against a deep block and iii) to have another capable operator between the lines. However, think some perspectives on our team are a little harsh and unrealistic/unpragmatic.

    KingslandBarge I agree with the observations, however I would tend to think all the teams in or around the top 4 will face a low block in most of their games, and would need to figure out how to overcome it. City, Liverpool, Newcastle?, ourselves. In my opinion (eye test, haven't looked for supporting data), our football is the least appealing of all the top teams, and probably our xG for/big chances created is lowest.

    We play like a Mourinho managed team back when he was a half decent manager. Arteta is doing similar things when it comes to man management (poor), resource management (a tad excessive, even though I don't really care about this), and choice of football style (focused primarily on defensive and midfield stability and a heavy reliance on brilliant wingers think Damien Duff/Joe Cole/Arjen Robben).

    We are winning the tight games right now, but if we continue like this, the moment we hit a skid and are not able to score goals or win games and the boys begin to tire or lose confidence, then it's all going to come crashing down.

        i always liked don simeone. i don't hate defensive coaches as long as you win. if arteta turns out like him in terms of results i will be happy.

        Do you have a rebuttal to the comments I made, or are you merely making a passing observation/judgement sir?

          flobaba I think you're right about Arteta being a bit Mourinho-esque. We are trying to win the league though, you'll always be in a position where if you stop scoring it goes to shit, even more so now with City setting such a high standard.

          The one thing I keep coming back to is that Odegaard is way off form. If he finds his game again the whole thing raises a couple of levels.

              flobaba

              We’re nothing like a Mourinho, low block, counter attacking based team. We are much more like a Pep City side stylistically from a few years ago when they had Sane, Sterling, Silva etc. We are just much slower and more cumbersome about how we move the ball. For me that’s about being good. There’s no such tactic that says do the same things but slower so that you’re more predictable.

              Martinelli and Saka are not used to being doubled up on, Saka said it himself. Ode isn’t used to trying to unlock against two banks of 5. It’s going to take some adaptation.

              You’re right that our current open play xG isn’t really ideal for a title challenge, but we are only about half a goal off per game off from the ideal level. It won’t take a lot to remedy that given some of the other stats in our favour.

                  Qwiss I'm slightly mixed with Odegaard. He has undoubted quality but still had too many games where he's a bit of a none presence and my niggling doubt about him and if he can reach that elite tier. He needs to be a little more consistent to elevate to that top level and we need that from him to win the big honours.

                  Similarly when we have Martinelli and Saka getting doubled up on that's when one of our other midfielders needs to step up if they overload one of those they try to drive into the gaps but we still try to force everything where our opponent expects us to. That's where I wish we were a bit more reactive in our attacking play.

                      flobaba Similar sentiments to goon's reply but fair concerns. I did find myself a little re-evaluative after watching Spurs yesterday. Bregrudingly, some great football on display from them. I'll lean into some of the reasons stated here for why the oomph may not be far off, within the pragmatic frameworks we have been pushed into. Did you watch City vs Liverpool by the way? Thought City were applying pretty much the same approach as we typically do.
                      Bring Back Kerrea Gilbert rowr

                          Mate, nobody would be complaining about boring controlball against Liverpool, which is the most dangerous attack City will face all season.

                          • goon replied to this.

                            QuincyAbeyie

                            Have you enjoyed City’s football otherwise? I think it’s been atrocious.

                            Actually think Chelsea and Spurs have probably played the most attractive football, and part of that is just about tempo. Beyond that its pretty dire.

                                goon Have you enjoyed City’s football otherwise? I think it’s been atrocious.

                                I never enjoy City's football. I definitely think it's more aesthetically pleasing than what we put out most weeks though. I do seem to remember you thinking that last season as well though, and that's the best team I've seen in many years.

                                If the word to describe their football is atrocious, what would describe ours? Is it much, much better than theirs or just slightly less atrocious in your opinion?

                                  Qwiss The one thing I keep coming back to is that Odegaard is way off form.

                                  I think a combination of this and a highly idealized perception of last season is really all there is to this discussion. We had 1.89 xG/90 last year and we have 1.74 xG/90 this year. This is a noticeable but really not cataclysmic shift here. I think this is fully explained by Jesus' availability and Odegaard just needing to play better. Non-shot xG models liked us a lot more than shot-based xG models last year too (i.e. we were very "control"-y and relatively not super "shoot"-y). There's not really any difference there.

                                      DiabyKungFu I think a combination of this and a highly idealized perception of last season is really all there is to this discussion. We had 1.89 xG/90 last year and we have 1.74 xG/90 this year.

                                      People are only idealizing last season before things went to shit though.

                                          QuincyAbeyie People are only idealizing last season before things went to shit though.

                                          Then they're talking about a team that had almost no impactful injuries versus a team that has dealt with quite a few impactful injuries.

                                              QuincyAbeyie I'd imagine that's why we bought more depth this summer.

                                              Yeah. Once we started getting injuries last season, we went on a 68 point pace. This season we're on an 88 point pace. Mission accomplished there.

                                                  DiabyKungFu Sure, if you think that our points so far this season means that we'll get 88 points if we keep playing this way.

                                                    flobaba

                                                    Your thought process is based on the worst case scenario hence my negativity comment. What if we use this defensive solidarity as a base and push on offensively? That is more likely to happen imo.

                                                    Remember the old saying, defences win you leagues. You can have an amazing attack and less than average defence and you will have issues as we found out last season and Liverpool in 2013/2014.

                                                      DiabyKungFu We had 1.89 xG/90 last year and we have 1.74 xG/90 this year. This is a noticeable but really not cataclysmic shift here.

                                                      We had like 2 or 3 penalties all of last season. We already have maybe double that in the 13 games we've played this season so that's obviously going to skew our xG/90 more towards this season than last.

                                                          I like the way we’re playing. Really mature approach and love having physically adept players in the team.

                                                          Just feel the attack lags behind the defence in its investment. Our next signings will probably include a star for the attack

                                                          Big Willie

                                                          True, but I will say we’ve had more touches in the penalty box than any other team this season. It figures that we will get more penalties.

                                                          If teams are going to camp in their box and allow us to play in their final third, one of the potential consequences is that we will have more corners and pens. I get looking at open play xG in isolation, but I don’t think it’s fair to ignore non-open play xG as many have been doing.

                                                              goon True, but I will say we’ve had more touches in the penalty box than any other team this season. It figures that we will get more penalties.

                                                              I mean that may be the case, at least this season.

                                                              As can be seen above we have the second highest touches in the opposition box and the most penalties. That being said, Spurs currently have the most touches in the opposition box and have not been awarded a single penalty.

                                                              Also as can be seen below, last season we had the most touches in the opposition box, even more than City but had 1/3rd of the penalties that were given to them. So it's a bit more complicated than more touches in opposition box = more penalties.

                                                              Theoretically speaking having more touches in the box may give you a higher probability of being awarded penalties, however in practice that's not necessarily the case. Fulham, Brentford, West Ham and Leicester were all top 5 in the number of penalties awarded they were 12th, 9th, 13th and 17th in the table for number of touches in the opposition box. Maybe the theory itself has an issue in that having quick breaks into the box may lead to more desperate challenges by opposition trying to keep up with runners around them as opposed to a defender who is part of a set defence facing a team camped outside their box with no real space to play in.

                                                              Anyways, my original point wasn't to argue about the theory of what kind of actions lead to penalties etc, as over the last season and the course of this one it's clear that there are factors other than possession in the opposition box which can contribute to winning pens. Rather it was to refute the idea that we are creating just almost as much as we were last season as our xG is only slightly off our average from last year.

                                                              That claim doesn't take into consideration that at this point of the season we have been awarded 0.37 penalties per game compared to 0.07 penalties per game last season. That's more than 5 times the amount and will obviously make our numbers seem better this year.

                                                              • Our non penalty xG this year is 1.39 and we are in 11th place on that list whereas last season we had a non penalty xG of 1.82, and were in 3rd place on that list.
                                                              • Our defensive stats have become much better, with an xAG of 1.08 compared to an xAG of 1.42 last season.
                                                              • Overall the xG differential between the two was 3.23 last season compared to 2.48 this season so we are some way off that. In terms of xG differential we were 3rd overall last season and currently in 11th place.

                                                              Our position in the table is promising but unless we improve on our chance creation, I fear that it will be only a matter of time until we start to fall adrift. A strong defence can only carry you so far if your attack is not firing.

                                                                  Kel Varnsen

                                                                  You don't think losing Partey and opponents adjusting their tactics to employing low blocks and doubling up on our wingers has anything to do with it?

                                                                      daredevil This opponents doubling up thing. We are talking like it's new. It's not. Its been going on since last season. And the boys were exploiting through the middle. That's part of why Odegaard got so many goals last term.

                                                                          Big Willie Theoretically speaking having more touches in the box may give you a higher probability of being awarded penalties, however in practice that's not necessarily the case.

                                                                          I agree with this. I don't know the correlation between touches in the box and penalties, but i suspect it to be rather low as there are generally very few penalties per match and therefore a lot of noise/random variation.

                                                                            There's the stats for last season vs this season they showed on MNF.

                                                                            flobaba

                                                                            Our metrics from this season are closer to those of the latter half of last season when teams started to take us seriously, rather than the first half when we took the league by storm. We aren't exploiting the centre of the pitch as effectively this season and it's because of Partey's absence. The last time he played, he lofted a ball through the centre to setup the winner against Man City.

                                                                            Partey was our single point of failure only last year. Now we are top of the table in his absence. I would give credit to the team and management for ensuring we are resilient without him, because we were once half the side without him.

                                                                              Gurgen I don't dispute be had a great season but one season doesn't make you elite in my view you've got to be able to constantly put in that level which was more my observation. The tail end of last season he dropped quite a bit and he hasn't done it enough yet this season in my view.

                                                                                Big Willie agree with this, the goals and chance creation from open play is where I would hazard you would see more of a degradation of the numbers and that is often more significant because the penalty aspect can swing and it's less within your control.

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