@ Klaus.
I don't think it's contentious to suggest that imposing a complete lockdown at an early stage ensures the spread of the virus remains contained for the duration of the lockdown?
When the schools were closed in Italy, people were still attending large gatherings, still going to work, still meeting in pubs and eating in restaurants: and that led to children being palmed off on grandparents. If at the point the schools were closed, everything else was stopped too, with everyone confined to their homes, as has been the situation for weeks now, how does the disease spread?
If large-scale social distancing is implemented before the spread has reached a critical level, it is guaranted that for the period of time citizens are cooperating with the lockdown that the virus can not spread.
You don't have to be an epidemioligist to see that. Unless you know something about the way in which the virus spreads that I do not? It's what making those drastic changes before the virus has begun wreaking havoc does to the compliance levels of the population over time and what comes after a period of lockdown, even if you achieve 100% compliance, that is the contentious part. This is where behavioural science has influenced the UK government's approach more so than other countries (being slighlty behind on the curve has impacted too).
