#kroenkeout: Page 46 - The Arsenal discussion forum and community: One More in the Tolly

#kroenkeout

Claudius

By the way, a common theme on this forum is how wasteful we our. Want to help contextualise this. Every organisation can, of course, always look for efficiencies, but I don’t think that’s our biggest failure right now

https://bsky.app/profile/scott.cannonstats.com/post/3lgiwfmb5ex2m

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius this only shows that we're less wasteful than United and Chelsea. I don't know if anyone on this forum has ever argued anything else.

City and Liverpool are the clubs actually getting trophies km return for their money, so you can't exactly say we're less wasteful than them.

Claudius

QuincyAbeyie there is endless research online that shows the relationship between spend and trophies - particularly wages (and net transfer) spend. Liverpool are outspending us 20% and City outspending us 25% on wages. That’s a massive massive differential at the top level. Wages matter most btw because they most accurately measure the typical quality of resources available to the competing parties.

Now imagine if we were spending 20-25% more on wages. How much more you can stabilise top-end performance. Which we can start to do as our revenues continue to increase as they have in the last few years.

QuincyAbeyie

Claudius and we will never outspend City, yet you thought after 21/22 that we'd win in 22/23 and after 23/24 that we'd win in 24/25. "Correlation between spend and success" is something everyone knows, it's why Premier League teams are better than Championship teams. But your list doesn't tell anything about whether or not we're being wasteful in general. It can only tell you something about that if two conditions are met:

If you're higher on the list and less successful, you're wasteful in relation to that club.
If you're lower on the list and more successful, you're less wasteful in relation to that club.

So going by that, it tells us that we're less wasteful than United and Chelsea. Which everyone agrees with. Whether we're less or more wasteful with our resources than Liverpool or City can't be shown by what you've posted.

daredevil

We aren’t number one or even number two in any financial metric, whether that be wage spend, net spend, gross spend, squad cost etc.

So the expectation that we must win the big trophies is misplaced. We absolutely want to win as fans but until the ownership start pushing the boat out, it doesn’t appear that we will without overachieving.

Our best hope might just be the academy producing 3-4 world class players which provides the edge we need.

Sicario2

daredevil
This is not right. Not everything is correlated against finances. This is not Wall Street, this is sports where anything can happen.

Football is not about the biggest budgets it’s about moments.

Our moment is now. We won’t have this window forever as I keep saying.

QuincyAbeyie

daredevil but you're looking at it a bit simplistically. If team A spends 100 and team B spends 80, the expectation is that team A wins. That's City. But if you look at it over several seasons and ask what's the most probable outcome over that period, the expectation won't be "Team A wins every time", it will be "Team A wins most of the time". Basic probability tells you that if City have an 80 % chance to win for each of four seasons, they're unlikely to win all four.

So if fans expect us to win 'big trophies' more often than City, they're way off, but they're not necessarily wrong for expecting us to win one 1-2 times a decade.

daredevil

Sicario2

Of course, it's about finances. That's what it's always been about. Blackburn under Warner outspent everyone to win the title. Ferguson did the same. Mourinho likewise and City obviously. Only Wenger and Klopp didn't outspend everyone in 30+ years of PL football to win it.

daredevil

QuincyAbeyie

But we aren’t Team B in your hypothetical. We’re Team C.

Sicario2

awooga83

Don Pacifico agree with Combs that pride can be very fleeting, it might exist in this moment but if we fail to win anything in our high point then we've really started to become a less serious club and I'm not sure that's something to be proud of personally. If we drop the ball this season fans and wider football world will start to look at us as can be up in the race but that aren't the team that ever wins it they just don't have it and Arteta is a Pochettino manager just not quite good enough to get a team to the big prizes. That's the narrative that is starting to crystallize and I don't think these are positive developments.

Don Pacifico

awooga83 I'm not saying that we should accept never winning anything. I just think we're on the right track.

And I see points all the time expressing concern about how we're perceived...frankly, who gives a monkey's? What people think of us has no bearing on what we achieve.

Claudius

We’ve come a long way

awooga83

Claudius from losing to Bayern 10-2 to losing to Bayern 3-2 😉

I don't think many would argue we've not progressed to a better place closer to where we want to be, but it's not the target so we have to be ruthless about that next step which is the hardest.

Qwiss

Claudius the season we lost to Bayern 10-2 we came 3rd and won the FA cup. We aren't better than that right now. Certainly haven't "come a long way" from it.

Claudius

awooga83 I won’t be fully sarisfied until we have the big ears in our trophy cabinet. But direction of travel is generally comforting.

Qwiss

Claudius consistently good investment (4th highest transfer spend and salaries over this period).

So enough to get realistically expect top 4 but not really more.

Claudius

Qwiss I know you wouldn’t be happy with an FA Cup and 10-2 humiliations.
I remember all those nasty games. 4-0 Liverpool, 8-8 United, 6-3 city, 5-1 Liverpool and to top it off the 6-0 Chelsea in the 1000th game.

Claudius

awooga83

Don Pacifico I don't care about how we are perceived more if their is reality to it. A team nearly good enough but can't get it done wasn't valid before the season but this one and the next if we don't win I think that will be a fair appraisal whether we like it or not. I want us to shut those views up but you only prove them wrong by winning and shoving it in your critics faces.

Qwiss

Claudius I'd be happier with an FA cup and 3rd than 2nd and nothing.

Don Pacifico

awooga83 I don't care about how we are perceived more if their is reality to it.

The last two seasons, we outperformed what people expected. This is the first season we've underperformed so I just think people are getting ahead of themselves worrying about narratives.

awooga83

Don Pacifico we did really well without winning that's fine when you have come from nowhere(although would be better to get it finished when your level is high) less okay as time goes by and you should show progress. At the moment it looks like we've regressed this year. That may be down to circumstances but when they weren't impacting us so acutely we still failed to win so there is no certainty we will be able to make that leap.

flobaba

And our under performance is mostly due to injuries, and yes, referee influence.

Claudius

flobaba
We should “de-average” the assessment.

we should’ve done better in the summer and tried to secure another body
the referees have cheated us, awarding 3-4 red cards you will never witness again. It’s getting to be too many now to be dismissed as an occupational hazard
we’ve had a ton of injuries. I think both of the above have contributed to our injury issues
in this context, I’ve been blown away by the team’s resilience. Every game it’s a new configuration of players. But they just go out and do a great if not perfect job.

So B- for the transfers. A+ for the attitude and coaching.

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