Edu Named Technical Director: Page 4 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Edu Named Technical Director

Clrnc

No wonder we have went from outsmarting the market to obvious targets all of a sudden

Lets see how Atakan Karazor and Mateo Klimowicz does, his 2 latest finds

Meatwad

the data approach is good if you can process that info and make a decision and not get crippled by the vast amounts of data. i think that's what happened pre-sven. too much hemming and hawing.

Daz

Surely an appropriate mix of both approaches is needed? I would imagine a data-based approach is most useful for identifying younger or lower profile targets based on their stats and identified squad needs, and trying to 'beat the market' by securing these players ahead of other clubs. But identifying a desired target and actually securing that target are two different stages (neither of which we have been consistently good at for some time). I would then see a 'network/contacts' based approach as potentially helping to negotiate and close deals for such young/emerging players, while also potentially enabling the odd deal where we can take advantage of particular club/player circumstances to get the front running with more established players(a bit like the Ozil deal).
Either way, I don't think the value of networks and relationships should be overlooked, particularly given how the club seems to be viewed when it comes to transfers (oh no it's fucking Arsenal again, here we go!).

Burnwinter

Klaus wrote:
I think the network approach is significantly easier when you work for Barcelona and everyone wants to join you and you can pay world record transfer fees on a regular basis. It doesn't work as well when you need a lot of value for relatively little money. If you really want to outsmart the market, like Raul and Venkatesham claimed in that interview, then Sven's approach is the way to go.

Sure but you need both, top performing sides always have a couple of names in them. Aubameyang is here because of that Dortmund connection for example, Mislintat wasn't using "data" there.

Anzac

Daz wrote:
Surely an appropriate mix of both approaches is needed? I would imagine a data-based approach is most useful for identifying younger or lower profile targets based on their stats and identified squad needs, and trying to 'beat the market' by securing these players ahead of other clubs. But identifying a desired target and actually securing that target are two different stages (neither of which we have been consistently good at for some time). I would then see a 'network/contacts' based approach as potentially helping to negotiate and close deals for such young/emerging players, while also potentially enabling the odd deal where we can take advantage of particular club/player circumstances to get the front running with more established players(a bit like the Ozil deal).
Either way, I don't think the value of networks and relationships should be overlooked, particularly given how the club seems to be viewed when it comes to transfers (oh no it's fucking Arsenal again, here we go!).

I recall reading when we bought into data analysis that the first idea was to use the data base to eliminate the amount of non-specific scouting we do, and to be able to create profiles of player attributes we want to target - working smarter not just harder. Whilst the 'network' style can be of use to locate those players such as the likes of Cabellos = those who need a loan or move to re-ignite their careers.
Bottom line a healthy mix of both being used in tandem to compliment each other would be the preferred outcome.

Claudius

Exactly.
There is a great discussion on this week’s Arsenal Vision podcast with Alex from Tifo Football. They do the Sensible Transfers video series where they scout good value transfer targets for different teams. He says data more important than scouts and you can spot the well- organized teams easily.

On data, he says all teams have access to industry standard data sets like statDNA. Ours might have a few unique metrics. All teams need to do is understand their statistical weaknesses and then run searches for statistical matches on players who help plug the gaps near. This helps you come with a shortlist better than human scouts can. Where people come in this then dealing with issues like country regulations, dodgy agents, coaches wishing players stay in country, etc., and some in person observation. But most of the filtering can be done by PC

On team planning, he says you can then see which teams have a good philosophy (Liverpool, Norwich) versus those with no philosophy (United) based on the congruence and efficiency of their purchasing.

Anzac

Claudius wrote:
Exactly.
There is a great discussion on this week’s Arsenal Vision podcast with Alex from Tifo Football. They do the Sensible Transfers video series where they scout good value transfer targets for different teams. He says data more important than scouts and you can spot the well- organized teams easily.

On data, he says all teams have access to industry standard data sets like statDNA. Ours might have a few unique metrics. All teams need to do is understand their statistical weaknesses and then run searches for statistical matches on players who help plug the gaps near. This helps you come with a shortlist better than human scouts can. Where people come in this then dealing with issues like country regulations, dodgy agents, coaches wishing players stay in country, etc., and some in person observation. But most of the filtering can be done by PC

On team planning, he says you can then see which teams have a good philosophy (Liverpool, Norwich) versus those with no philosophy (United) based on the congruence and efficiency of their purchasing.

I posted this from them in the Houseboat thread as I wasn't sure where to put it, but it probably could have gone into the Youth thread based upon the players they've identified.

https://www.tifofootball.com/video/sensible-transfers-arsenal/

One of the MU supporters at work made a comment that there is a requirement from their sponsors to have some marquee signings/players within the starting XI - hence the then record fee paid for Pogba. I was slightly concerned that this also explained as to why we were pursuing Zaha as both clubs have the same kit provider.

As for philosophy AW's was that he would not bid for players whose clubs said they were not available, let alone the issues regarding his personal valuations and the potential blocking of opportunities for developing players etc. There were other issued raised at various times, suffice to say that our philosophy regarding transfers has been shite for the best part of the current calendar decade if not longer.

jones

Claudius wrote:
Exactly.
There is a great discussion on this week’s Arsenal Vision podcast with Alex from Tifo Football. They do the Sensible Transfers video series where they scout good value transfer targets for different teams. He says data more important than scouts and you can spot the well- organized teams easily.

On data, he says all teams have access to industry standard data sets like statDNA. Ours might have a few unique metrics. All teams need to do is understand their statistical weaknesses and then run searches for statistical matches on players who help plug the gaps near. This helps you come with a shortlist better than human scouts can.

I dont think you can say stuff like this definitively. Plenty of human scouts around who don't rely on data at all who do a lot better than those working with statDNA and similar software.

goon

Klaus wrote:
I think the network approach is significantly easier when you work for Barcelona and everyone wants to join you and you can pay world record transfer fees on a regular basis. It doesn't work as well when you need a lot of value for relatively little money. If you really want to outsmart the market, like Raul and Venkatesham claimed in that interview, then Sven's approach is the way to go.

Seems to have worked quite well for Wolves to be fair. I think it depends on who you know and that's the problem, the system again puts too much reliance on one man.

Hopefully Sven is talking from a short term perspective where we leaned on that approach while we got a proper structure in place. Sanllehi listed analytics as a part of the decision making structure from what I remember and I hope that's the case.

Ray

Previously you could argue Dein was the guy with the contacts and Wenger the guy who could spot a talent, with their equivalents being Raul and Sven. You need a mix of both.

Edu has effectively taken over from Wenger with his first signing being Martinelli. I think he will have a keen eye on the South American market. Then there’s also Cagigao.

Coombs

Data is probably more important internally than for scouting externally. I'd think you'd have to be at least in the same league, if not the same team, to draw any serious conclusions from stats, especially.

Data can't give a good read on personality, environmental factors, ambition, or anything other than vague extrapolations on "style" based on inherently limited information. A compass doesn't mean anything unless someone is holding it.

These systems are tools, not scouts or even guides. What they have done, along with mass documentation of the game, is give the layperson a leg to stand on for doing some hobbyist scouting. It's just a bit too bad they can then post it on YouTube and send half the world into a frenzy.

Mirth

Coombs wrote:
Data is probably more important internally than for scouting externally. I'd think you'd have to be at least in the same league, if not the same team, to draw any serious conclusions from stats, especially.

Data can't give a good read on personality, environmental factors, ambition, or anything other than vague extrapolations on "style" based on inherently limited information. A compass doesn't mean anything unless someone is holding it.

These systems are tools, not scouts or even guides. What they have done, along with mass documentation of the game, is give the layperson a leg to stand on for doing some hobbyist scouting. It's just a bit too bad they can then post it on YouTube and send half the world into a frenzy.

On the other hand, Liverpool's own data analytics team is run by someone who has PhD in particle physics. He's the man who recommended they sign Salah: https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/unknown-liverpool-backroom-analyst-who-16320524
Klopp apparently was also hired using a similar model. But where Liverpool get it right is that Klopp acts as the gatekeeper between a more scientific analysis of football and the more emotive and motivational side of things.

Coombs

But Salah had stats that ranged across multiple top leagues to look at. It's not like he was plucked out of nowhere. Klopp was also by no means an unknown quantity. Every idiot was wish listing him, including myself. My point is, these numbers are only useful when they are used by a person, i.e. interpreted. They also do not tell the whole story, and the human element, forming connections, being trusted, etc. are all probably more important in the long run.

QuincyAbeyie

I don't have a PhD in anything, but I could probably make a model that suggests we too should hire Klopp and sign Salah.

Klaus

A lot of people weren't fussed about Salah to be fair. Roma had no other takers despite a shockingly low fee. I agree that he was an obvious target but most clubs didn't think so for one reason or other. Whoever made Liverpool follow through with that deal is the sort of person I'd want here, PhD or not.

Mirth

Yep, Salah wasn't an unknown but that's kind of the point - the days of finding a player no one has heard of has gone. It's about seeing something no one else spotted. Liverpool had virtually no one challenging them for that signature.

Don't be afraid of the machines guys, they'll take your jobs too one day.

Bold Tone

Klaus wrote:
A lot of people weren't fussed about Salah to be fair. Roma had no other takers despite a shockingly low fee. I agree that he was an obvious target but most clubs didn't think so for one reason or other. Whoever made Liverpool follow through with that deal is the sort of person I'd want here, PhD or not.

Bold Tone wrote:
mdgoonah41 wrote:
what i want edu to do is to convince other clubs to take our shitty players and to pay us a premium to do it. i want him to smartly negotiate with other clubs and get their best players for the best price we can, as quickly as we can. i dont give a shit about anything else. our squad has so many problems right now and he has a huge task in front of him.

...
What we want from him is do to us what Michael Edwards has done for Liverpool
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-edwards-the-innovative-sporting-director-giving-liverpool-an-edge-in-the-market-v3grq5hwc

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/michael-edwards-liverpool-fsg-klopp-12124673

Klaus

Burnwinter wrote:
Klaus wrote:
I think the network approach is significantly easier when you work for Barcelona and everyone wants to join you and you can pay world record transfer fees on a regular basis. It doesn't work as well when you need a lot of value for relatively little money. If you really want to outsmart the market, like Raul and Venkatesham claimed in that interview, then Sven's approach is the way to go.

Sure but you need both, top performing sides always have a couple of names in them. Aubameyang is here because of that Dortmund connection for example, Mislintat wasn't using "data" there.

He wasn't using data that particular time, but he did when he signed Aubameyang at Dortmund to begin with. We badly needed a readymade player who could improve on Lacazette and he convinced us to go for a striker he knew extremely well. That's not contact-based business to me; Sven was the contact. It was an extension of his own scouting and observation. If anything I remember Dortmund being difficult to deal with because there was bad blood between them and Sven.

Of course contacts matter, but no one's said you don't need contacts in the game. In the interview Sven explicitly drew up a distinction between his own work and the upper management's ideas about how transfer business is done though, and it's not flattering. It echoes what was being reported in January about the behind the scenes disagreements, and it's pretty consistent with how we seem to do business now.

Ray

Mane and Robertson have been more impressive than the Salah from a scouting perspective IMO. Salah, Fabinho, Keita, possibly Fekir to a lesser extent, clubs were interested but Liverpool were proactive.

Bold Tone

Neither Mane nor Robertson were unknown diamonds.
Klopp said Robertson impressed while playing for Hull in the Premier League the previous season and he knew about Mane from Dortmund (credit Mislintat?).
https://metro.co.uk/2017/07/21/liverpool-boss-jurgen-klopp-explains-reasons-for-andrew-robertson-transfer-6797123/
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/1982909/liverpool-manager-jurgen-klopp-tried-to-sign-sadio-mane-when-he-was-in-charge-of-borussia-dortmund/
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/klopp-wanted-punch-myself-after-12196755

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