The auto lobby absurdly counteracts climate protection in cooperation with the Bundesregierung (Germany's federal government)
Last Monday began in Bonn the grand UN world climate conference. Until the last minute there will be discussions and arguments over formulations in the final communiqué, and it is a certainty that (German) media will celebrate climate chancellor Angela Merkel for her godlike efforts in fighting climate change. What an absurd charade. The actual value of memorandums like these is shown up today [8th November] by the European Commission itself. While in Bonn scientists and politicians are haggling over carbon emission limits those same limits are reduced to absurdity, as today the Commission will present its new emission regulations for the European automotive industry, which, after massive lobbying by Volkswagen, the German car lobby and even the German government itself have been undermined so drastically that reaching the limits set out in the Paris accord would be a miracle in itself. What are we actually negotiating for? Just for show and nice headlines?
If you're interested in grasping the events of the last couple of days it is imperative to understand the background of the emission limits under discussion. After long and tough negotiations on numerous UN conferences the 195 member states finally agreed on a climate covenant in Paris 2015 (the first of its kind since the Kyoto protocol of the 90s), including binding carbon emission reduction goals. Until 2050 worldwide carbon emissions were supposed to be reduced by 80% to 95% compared to the 1990 value, with interim goals in 2020 and 2030 of 20% and 40%. But Germany wouldn't be Germany had it not announced even bigger heroics. In 2007 already the Bundesregierung bindingly declared via its parliament to reach a reduction of 40% by 2020.
But behind these grandiose assertions there was astonishingly little movement in Germany's policies. Currently we are miles away from even remotely achieving our climate protection goals; the federal environmental ministry sheepishly forecasts a reduction between 31.7% and 32.4%. The reason being the sluggish development of the Energiewende as well as road transportation; more than 12% of carbon emissions stem from motor vehicles.
Carbon emission limits have been in place in Europe for a good while now, despite massive lobbying of the car industry. The European Commission managed, after a 13 year long battle vs automotive lobbyists, to finally implement the UN climate convention goals from 1993 and set the average emission value for cars in 2015 at 130g CO2 per kilometre, those 130g were supposed to be reduced to 95 grams by 2021. Carbon dioxide is a direct reaction product of the combustion of fossil energy sources, meaning that the lower a car's consumption, the lower its carbon emissions. It is as simple as it sounds; to meet climate convention goals, the automotive industry would 'simply' have to engineer lighter, more efficient cars, i.e. energy saving cars. Sadly, the reverse is true.
A contemporary car such as the Mercedes C180 emits in actual use not the 130g which the EU regulators allow but 189g/km - more than double the value of the limit which kicks in in 2021, less than four years from now. Alarm bells started ringing - however for the lobbyists, not the regulators.
The first partial victory achieved by the car lobby was the prevention of a "compromise", which was found in June 2013 between the European Commission and the European Council. Said compromise concerned the fine print of the respective EU regulation and the question, whether and in what way emission limit violations were supposed to be sanctioned in the future. Three days after reaching an agreement the proposition was abruptly cancelled; representatives of the German office of the chancellor removed the debate over the regulation from the agenda and effectively prevented its passage. The men and women responsible for this were led by Matthias Wißmann, president of the Association of German Carmakers; the same Wißmann who contacted back in May the chancellor in a private letter (addressed "dear Angela"). The same Wißmann who shares Merkel's CDU partybook (equivalent of Tories) and was the federal minister of transport between 1993 and 1998.
What Wißmann managed to push through back then includes the following:
A car's consumption is not determined based on actual measurements but a completely unrealistic test cycle called NEFZ. Current studies by the ICCT quantify the deviation between actual and declared consumption at a staggering 42%. The depicted C180 fares even worse with a deviation of 61% - which turns the deep red 189g/km to an acceptable official 116g. Note that the 130g/km apply to the fleet average - you can imagine how the high powered luxury, sports cars and SUVs perform. Looking even at the official figures the absurdity of the whole situation becomes more apparent; the carbon emissions from road transportation haven't gone down by 40% from 1990 till today, they went up a full 20%. If you include the difference between official and actual figures you reach a mind numbing 70%! All while in Bonn officials continue to juke the figures while brazenly declaring to save the globe.
The term "average" was softened. The official 130g/km and 95g/km figures do not apply for all manufactures, let alone for German ones. After all, you have to consider the differences between manufacturers of large and small cars. Which was promptly implemented, leading to the creation of average limitss for every manufacturer. Funnily enough the average limits for all German manufacturers are way above the official emission limit; Mercedes for example does not have a 2021 limit of 95g but 101.6g/km.
The new fine print includes innumerable possibilites to manipulate the value of the effective average limit. One of those includes the introduction of "supercredits" which rewards manufacturers for the development and engineering of economical and hybrid cars before they are actually built, let alone sold. Said credits are included in the emission average limits at a factored rate, meaning these hypothetical cars count multiple compared to cars actually driving on the road. This allows Mercedes, VW & co to calculate their emission limits using forecasted but completely unrealistic sales; on top of that hybrid cars are calculated as emission free, even though their production obviously is the cause of high CO2 emissions as well.
It is incredible, after all of these manipulations - dictated by the auto lobby, implemented by the "climate chancellor" - that car manufacturers still do not meet their own emission limits. Volkswagen for example will according to its own calculations and forecasts, despite using all legal and illegal manipulation tricks, reach a emission limit value of 98.8g/km in 2021, clearly beyond the corporation's 95.9g threshold. According to the original submission of the European Commission this deviation would've been extremely expensive for VW; the document stated a penalty of 95 Euros per gram over the limit - for every single car, mind. Calculating with VW's 10 million manufactured cars p.a. this deviation of 2.9g would've cost the corporation €2.8bn every year; the figure using not the official but actual emission values is barely conceivable. It is only natural that the manufacturers would mobilise their lobbyists. The only alternative would have been engineering fuel saving cars. And that's obviously an absolute no-no.
The discussions in Brussels currently taking place are about the continuation of the EU regulations from 2021 beyond. The original covenant was based on the Paris accord and planned for further reduction to 25% in 2025 and 35% 2030 (each based on the 95g/km limit for 2021). It is blatantly obvious that these figures - as manipulativ and unreal as they might be - will not be reached without the massive switch to electromobility. None of this is news to carmakers; but why make the effort when the tried and tested method of lobbying has always led to the desired success?
Today's SZ paper has revealed a massive lobby attack by Volkswagen on several EU fronts. Targets include the Commissioners Oettinger (Germany), Hahn (Austria) and Moedas (Portugal), but an internal paper mentions commissioners and secretaries in Czech Republic, Hungary and Spain, all countries in which VW has major branches. Simultaneously, Wißmann has proven to be worth his pay once again. A phone call with the Chief of Staff of Jean-Claude Juncker has seemingly cleared last doubts. But huge pressure was exerted by the Bundesregierung itself - none other than Sigmar Gabriel warned the EU against "too strict regulations" in the last couple of days.
Their concerted action was a big success: according to the SZ the reduction goals of 25% and 35% for 2025 and 2030 have been lowered to 15% and 30%. Quotas for electro cars have been abandoned altogether including of course the sanction threats that would've come with not meeting them. This too seems to have been a direct consequence of Wißmann's intervention. Another giant gateway for future manipulations has been created in what seems to have been a climate protection oriented measure. In the near future the consumption values and along with them the emission limits will not be derived from the completely unrealistic NEFZ, but the more realistic WLTP designed by the EU and Japan. What sounds like a reasonable measure however contains the chance for manufacturers to "translate" their original NEFZ values into the WLTP standard, instead of abandoning the old values altogether. We will find out soon enough how the car lobby will manage to make these figures look like even more of a mockery.
That success of Wißmann, Gabriel & co coincides with the UN climate conference is more than a coincidence. Much more than that, the car lobby proves to the public who is master in the EU's house. Let the children negotiate in Bonn all they want, we create our own rules.
