Replacing Sanchez and/or Ozil - What AMs should we target?: Page 7 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

Replacing Sanchez and/or Ozil - What AMs should we target?

mdgoonah41

flobaba wrote:
Lol. I'm guessing you guys aren't on the Arsenal board.

i wish i was on the arsenal board. id have lobbied to have wenger sacked 7 years ago.

economically speaking, its better to get £20m than zero. obviously. but we've all realized that the economics of our club make no sense anyway, and honestly, even if you give wenger £200m to spend, i have no confidence he'd spend it wisely. we've made some really bad investments in the last 5-6 seasons, along with a few good ones.

i want the club cleaned out. i want the filler to be sold, i want the wage bill cleaned, and i want a new manager to have a good situation to inherit.

Claudius

Depends how you view your economics. In my view, it’s better to get nothing and push for 4th, and try to get that Champions League prize money, which last year was 54m pounds. Contrast that with United who won 16m pounds for winning the Europa League last year. It makes much more economic sense to keep Sanchez, and push to get back into Champions League. And you’re in much better position for kit and other negotiations than a team that is spending a second straight season in Europa League. And then he can go anywhere he wants in June.

That we are creating uncertainty around this is so incredible. We should have been very definitive last summer “Both men will see out their contracts and we are not entertaining any bids. End of story.” Done.

Captain

Problem with that fantasy is that Sanchez is playing like a man who has already checked out.

Claudius

I think because we don’t set the boundaries with our players, it creates the space for them to act the fool. If we had clearly outlined to Sanchez and his agent that they had signed a contract, one that rewards them both immensely, and they must respect it as it takes two to break it, then they would have been under no illusions. We could have given the market certainty that come January he could sign a pre-contract under Bosman with a foreign club in January or move to an English club in June, but he would be playing for us until end June.

That said, I do think where we really fucked up was our lack of ambition last summer. If we had just signed some big players last summer, we probably would have been able to secure at least one extension, and that might have then facilated the other. Bringing in just Lacazette was the death knell of the Ozil and Sanchez talks.

mdgoonah41

Claudius wrote:
Depends how you view your economics. In my view, it’s better to get nothing and push for 4th, and try to get that Champions League prize money, which last year was 54m pounds. Contrast that with United who won 16m pounds for winning the Europa League last year. It makes much more economic sense to keep Sanchez, and push to get back into Champions League. And you’re in much better position for kit and other negotiations than a team that is spending a second straight season in Europa League. And then he can go anywhere he wants in June.

That we are creating uncertainty around this is so incredible. We should have been very definitive last summer “Both men will see out their contracts and we are not entertaining any bids. End of story.” Done.

well its obviously a very complicated question.

a.) future money that comes from getting 4th or winning the europra league, all things you presume are more realistic if we keep sanchez, also relies on a lot of luck. sanchez could play really well, we could make it to the europa league final, and we could lose on a dodgy penalty decision. if that happens, he leaves on a free, we finish 5th and we dont win the europa league final. so, no CL bonus. we are currently second favorite to win the europa league at 6/1, behind atletico, who is 9/2. i think thats generous, to be honest.

b.) so, to claim that CL bonus money of £54m, we need a lot to go right. if we take £25m for him today, that £25m is guaranteed.

c.) how will that £25m impact our summer business? for example. lets say we currently have £100m available to buy players in the summer. does having £25m extra allow us to sign 1 additional top player? it might. if we actually have £200m to spend, not counting the £25m from alexis, then does that £25m really make a big difference? maybe, but maybe not.

d.) i dont believe we have £200m to spend. or even £100m. we are still cheap. we spent about £46m on lacazette. we brought in about £75m on transfers (gibbs, woj, gabriel, ox)...another profit made.

so, does the £25m matter? who fucking knows. i dont even care at this point. i am not optimistic that wenger will overhaul the squad this summer and fix the glaring deficiencies. im not confident he'd do that if he had £100m to spend, £200m to spend, or £500m to spend.

until he goes, or until most his power is stripped away, we're a rudderless ship, drifting in the night.

Captain

Claudius wrote:
I think because we don’t set the boundaries with our players, it creates the space for them to act the fool. If we had clearly outlined to Sanchez and his agent that they had signed a contract, one that rewards them both immensely, and they must respect it as it takes two to break it, then they would have been under no illusions. We could have given the market certainty that come January he could sign a pre-contract under Bosman with a foreign club in January or move to an English club in June, but he would be playing for us until end June.

That said, I do think where we really fucked up was our lack of ambition last summer. If we had just signed some big players last summer, we probably would have been able to secure at least one extension, and that might have then facilated the other. Bringing in just Lacazette was the death knell of the Ozil and Sanchez talks.

I don't see any motivation from January to May and, to be honest, from august to january. His agent will have felt everything out since summer, so barring something drastic like a broken leg - once his mind is made up, he has checked out.

The only solid thing is to sell players with two years left, but you're going to have a hell of time convincing your fans that it was a great idea to sell a potential player of the year that far out. It's lose/lose. Personally, i would have just shifted him in the summer, but we're not that club.

Claudius

Hey, like your thinking. Under scenario (a), that is 25m guaranteed with almost no probability that we are in Champions League next year and, as mentioned, that likely has a knock on effect in next few years. So you model a probability for next year, and a smaller p for the following years. And then you need to model the fact that this increased chance that you are outside CL for the foreseeable future hits your deals. Perhaps that is 30-40m pounds season across sponsorships over 4-5 seasons, multiplied by your probability. I hope we have a team that can help them model the scenarios and the associated values and probabilities much more thoroughly. But I do think that not competing any given season is a serious mistake for this club. One we have chosen to make over and over.

Unfortunately, I also fear that last summer was the last big fork in the road moment, and we fucked up royally by not simultaneously going big in the transfer market and extending Ozil/Sanchez. Given the contract situation we have, and the finite funds, I find it very difficult to imagine a scenario now where we lose Ozil and Sanchez, shed all the old players, and replace them with enough super quality players that we can immediately be a top 4 challenger in the 2018-19 season. It will be the 2019-20 season at best and maybe even the 2020-21 season before we can use our business revenues to build back up to

mdgoonah41

arsenal have released an official statement on alexis given that ornstein is basically an arsenal spokesman

QuincyAbeyie

Nah, Arsenal wouldn't tell him to write that Malcom is our number one choice for a replacement.

y va marquer

if a suitable offer "arrives"

Still don't know why even City would pay £30m ish for a player who will be free in the summer.

It's not like they are struggling to win the league and he won't be eligible to play in CL (or will he?)

mdgoonah41

y va marquer wrote:
if a suitable offer "arrives"

Still don't know why even City would pay £30m ish for a player who will be free in the summer.

It's not like they are struggling to win the league and he won't be eligible to play in CL (or will he?)

two reasons:

he can be registered for the CL. you can register 1 player who played in the europra league in your CL squad
they might feel that if they get him in now, the can convince him to sign long term. PSG and united are also apparently interested, they basically get 6 months to convince him his long term future is at city.

Asterix

Plus the Jesus injury may be worse than expected and that leaves them with only Aguero, who isn't the most reliable on the injury front either.

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