Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 17-point post-conference lead
Political parties normally expect a modest post-conference bounce in the polls (because, if they are half-competent at PR, they can generally create a large quantity of mostly favourable media coverage) but the Conservatives will be delighted with the latest findings from the regular Guardian/ICM poll. It gives them a 17-point lead.
Here are the new figures, and how they compare to the previous Guardian/ICM polling figures from early September, before the conference season started.
Conservatives: 43% (up 2)
Labour: 26% (down 2)
Ukip: 11% (down 2)
Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)
Greens: 6% (up 2)
The fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Sunday.
The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM in its polling series going back to 1992. They only once got a higher lead (20 points in June 2008, when Gordon Brown was at his most unpopular) although in September and October 2009 they also had a 17-point lead in ICM polls. But Labour did have larger polling leads at various points in the Blair era.
At 26%, the Labour figure is only one point higher than their lowest rating in ICM polling - the 25% they hit in June 2008 and August 2009.
The Conservative conference was dominated by news about Theresa May hardening up her stance on Brexit and the ICM figures suggest this has gone down well with voters. Although the proposal to force firms to reveal what proportion of their workforce is foreign has now been dropped, following a backlash from business, a YouGov poll at the end of last week suggested voters backed the idea by two to one.
The Tories may also have benefited from the fall in the Ukip share of the vote. At 11% Ukip are on their lowest level in an ICM poll since the 2015 general election, and this may reflect the damage done to the party’s reputation by the fight in the European parliament on Thursday that left Steven Woolfe MEP hospitalised.
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,017 adults aged 18+ on 7-9th October 2016, and the data has been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
